Info!! The Limits Of Self Belief

At most places where I cause got worked equally a trading coach, I cause got been involved inwards the hiring process.  That has given me a fair total of sense amongst interviews as well as interviewees.

What I tin tell you lot is that the correlation betwixt a candidate's self-professed passion for trading as well as the actual time/effort they pass agreement markets is approximately zero.

The correlation betwixt a candidate's stated confidence inwards their trading as well as trading methodology as well as their actual results is also nearly zero.

The most confident candidates I've encountered--those who target returns non achieved yesteryear fifty-fifty the most successful portfolio managers I function with--almost never tin objectively document consistently practiced returns.

Candidates who come upwardly inwards amongst their actual, verifiable results, document their risk-adjusted returns, as well as clearly outline the limits equally good equally the hope of their methods are really ofttimes the ones who excel.

Promising candidates item their trading processes, non their promise.

As outlined yesteryear recent research, it all seems equally though confidence doesn't necessarily breed success.  Interestingly, the self-reported writing skills of college freshmen has been going upwardly over decades, piece actual writing mightiness has dropped.  Students charge per unit of measurement themselves much higher inwards motion to succeed directly than 2 or iii decades ago, but the average fourth dimension they pass studying has dropped meaningfully.

Whereas modesty was a mutual norm decades ago, it is directly understood that successful people cause got to projection confidence as well as tremendous self-belief.  This has led to a form of ambition inflation, inwards which--crazily--above 75% of students charge per unit of measurement themselves equally "above average" inwards their motion to succeed.  One wonders whether that proportion actually exhibits either motion or success.

Genuine confidence comes from difficult function as well as difficult experience: putting inwards the fourth dimension as well as attempt to compass mastery as well as getting knocked downwardly plenty times to know--deep inwards your soul--that you lot cause got what it takes to succeed.  It springs from that "grit" element described yesteryear Duckworth.  Stated confidence without the difficult work, without the experience, as well as without the demonstrated grit is self-promotion at best, delusion at worst.

The former pros know: it's when you lot scream back you're especial that markets are most poised to essay out you lot wrong.

Further Reading:  The Power of Uncertainty