* We are inwards a cyclical bull marketplace inside a secular behavior market. The secular behavior marketplace began inwards 2000 and, similar secular behavior markets earlier this ane (1929-1949; 1966-1982), this ane could final for fifteen years or so. Even later secular behavior markets convey position inwards cost lows (1932, 1974), we've typically seen years of weakness too bottoming activeness until stocks larn an unloved property class. The March, 2009 may convey been a cost depression for stocks, merely we've got a way to piece of work past times away earlier stocks are a shunned investment.
* All that existence said, nosotros *are* inwards a cyclical bull marketplace too exclusively late convey nosotros begun to meet the variety of bullish thought extremes that mightiness accompany a topping process. This bull marketplace has lasted a footling to a greater extent than than a year. Most bull markets final longer than that. I'm non convinced we'll curlicue over until at that topographic point are stronger hints of a motion away from depression involvement rates. The inability of traders too investors to recognize the deviation betwixt cyclical marketplace moves too secular ones has created much hurting for bulls too bears alike.
* I honor it difficult to believe that the Fed volition convey the political encompass to heighten involvement rates until nosotros meet difficult signs of inflation. That agency that commodities mightiness convey to rally difficult earlier nosotros meet the bull marketplace inwards stocks curlicue over. If we're non overheating, I'm can't imagine the Fed raising rates inwards a high unemployment environment. So nosotros stick alongside monetary relaxation until nosotros overheat.
* H5N1 rising inwards long Treasury rates (decline inwards bond prices) volition live a expert order for inflationary expectations too anticipation of overheating. As long equally rates remain tame, it's difficult for me to imagine stocks going to hell.
* I'm opened upwards to the possibility that all the inwards a higher house mightiness live incorrect too that the side past times side driver of stock prices volition live monetary tightening too a difficult landing amid emerging marketplace economies. If the emerging nations halt serving equally the engine of global economical growth, that's when nosotros could meet a minute economical slowdown. I'm non convinced that the China miracle won't terminate upwards looking similar the Nihon miracle.
* I don't know how nosotros emerge from burdensome debt other than to transition from existence a consumption-driven economic scheme to existence an export-driven one. Over the long haul, growth-by-export volition back upwards a weak the United States of America dollar, though whatever virtually term economical slowdown led past times emerging markets would probable meet a flying to the dollar.
* It is difficult for me to imagine a transition away from a consumer-driven economic scheme without deflationary pressures coming from family deleveraging, weakness inwards commercial existent estate, too pressure level on local/state governments too local/regional fiscal institutions. The panicky flying to high yield debt (junk bonds, muni debt) could terminate badly if nosotros larn a minute bout of deflation.
* If I convey to bet on the future, I'll bet on countries alongside favorable demographics, favorable residue sheets, favorable rates of taxation, too freer markets. Free markets are messy too far from perfect, merely they are ultimately self-correcting; centralized ones are not.
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