* Implications of Sector Rotation - H5N1 reader emailed me amongst the thought that the marketplace was weak because the recent rising was accompanied past times greater than normal sector rotation. That's intuitively appealing, but may non jibe historical precedent. I went dorsum to 1990 too examined all v 24-hour interval periods inwards which the S&P 500 Index (SPY) was upward to a greater extent than than 1% but non to a greater extent than than 2% (N = 792). This matches the five-day menses that ended on Friday. I too hence divide the sample inwards one-half based upon the five-day proportion of advancing stocks to declining stocks on the NYSE. The rationale was that a high grade of sector rotation should propose greater residue amid rising too declining stocks. If the rising is occurring across all sectors (i.e., without rotation), advancing stocks should dominate decliners. When we've risen inwards SPY too advancing stocks accept strongly led declining issues, the adjacent v days inwards SPY accept averaged a loss of -.11% (192 up, 204 down). When we've had a like rising inwards SPY too advancing stocks accept been to a greater extent than inwards residue amongst declining issues, the adjacent v days inwards SPY accept averaged a arrive at of .13% (205 up, 191 down). This, of course, is non an exhaustive written report of the topic, but it suggests that rotation may non hold upward bearish for a rising marketplace inwards the curt run.
* Primary Bull Market? - David Korn, will hold upward tracking coin flows carefully to hold off for back upward or disconfirmation of the idea.
* Trading Insights - Gap trading, the psychology of consecutive losses, too to a greater extent than an fantabulous observation on the value of stock screening.
* H5N1 Look at Management Integrity - H5N1 my recent post concerning theme-based trading. I run across that over 400 traders are straight off Eddy Elfenbein posts a span of fantabulous charts that demo how nosotros rest below the 2000 rank inwards the S&P 500 Index, when adjusted for inflation. While on the Eddy topic, here's his interview conducted past times Tim Sykes.
.
No comments:
Post a Comment