I noticed on Fri that nosotros had an explosion of stocks making novel 20-day lows across the NYSE, NASDAQ, too ASE. New 20-day lows striking 4129, a degree we've seen alone eleven times since belatedly 2002.
Interestingly, when we've had to a greater extent than than 4000 novel 20-day lows, in that location has non been an intermediate-term bullish bias. Indeed, xxx days later, the S&P 500 Index (SPY) has been upwards v times too downward 6, for an average loss of 3.0%.
A to a greater extent than interesting observation, however, is that--of the eleven occurrences of 4000 or to a greater extent than 20-day lows--all simply i (5/10/04) has occurred since the 2nd one-half of 2007. During the bull market, pullbacks led to an excess of novel 20-day lows, simply non such wide weakness. When markets convey been broadly weak, it's been an indication of bearish tendency atmospheric condition too nosotros haven't seen a bullish border going forward.
An interesting theme for query is whether extremely weak or rigid markets differ qualitatively from usually weak or rigid ones. It may good survive that rise or falling tides that elevator or drib all boats demo greater odds of continuation, whereas less wide moves are to a greater extent than probable to meet reversal.
Note: I postal service novel 20-day highs too lows each morning time earlier the marketplace put opened upwards via Twitter (free subscription via RSS).
.
No comments:
Post a Comment