Friday, Apr 8th
* Insightful postal service on the misery of bull markets from The Reformed Broker. Many traders are temperamentally long vol; the 1 prediction you lot most rarely request heed is 1 for piffling get as well as piffling toll change.
* Going dorsum to 2010, if you lot accept the number of 5-day novel highs minus lows amidst SPX stocks as well as compare those to 20-day novel highs minus lows, you lot teach an interesting view. When that fourth dimension serial is divided into quartiles, nosotros notice that when 5-day novel highs/lows greatly overstep 20-day highs/lows, the side past times side v days inwards SPY average a gain of exactly +.04%. When 20-day novel highs/lows greatly overstep 5-day highs/lows, the side past times side v days receive got averaged a gain of +.39%. (Raw information from Index Indicators). Think of the implications for FOMO trading...
* We reversed Wednesday's strength yesterday, closing amongst 5-day novel highs/lows good below the 20-day level. Less than 20% of SPX shares closed inwards a higher house their 5-day moving averages and, for the origin fourth dimension since this rally began, fewer than 50% of stocks closed inwards a higher house their 20-day averages. My wheel mensurate is at 1 time neutral, every bit nosotros run off the recent potent readings (see below).
* VIX has jumped to inwards a higher house sixteen amongst yesterday's drop. I receive got built a model that predicts a normal VIX grade from 2 variables: recent toll modify as well as recent realized volatility. When VIX is to a greater extent than expensive than the model predicts it should move based on historical precedent, returns receive got been positive; when VIX is to a greater extent than inexpensive than the model predicts, nosotros receive got seen subnormal returns. Th of concluding calendar week through Mon of this week, nosotros hitting inexpensive levels inwards VIX valuation. With yesterday's drop, nosotros are dorsum to beingness expensive inwards VIX pricing. To give an idea, going dorsum to 2012, when VIX has been inwards its most richly priced quartile, the side past times side v days inwards SPY receive got averaged a gain of +.76%. When VIX has been most cheap, the side past times side v days receive got averaged a gain of exactly +.03%. In short, when options participants toll inwards also much vol, nosotros tend to teach higher prices--which implies a hateful reversion inwards vol!
Thursday, Apr 7th
* What would a startup community of traders expression like? Love this postal service from Howard Lindzon, mainly for the entrepreneurial zest I run across missing amidst then many traders as well as trading firms. Amazing what a difference it makes to move surrounded past times innovators who convey vision as well as optimism to the future. I run across precious piffling of that inwards the trading community.
* Stocks flora solid buying yesterday inwards the wake of oversold readings, but receive got pulled dorsum inwards overnight trade. My intermediate-term strength measure, which looks at novel highs versus lows for SPX shares on iii dissimilar fourth dimension frames, continues to run off its extended readings. Many of my cycle-based measures expression similar. We're getting fewer novel highs amidst stocks as well as novel lows receive got ticked higher the concluding 2 sessions. Yesterday, across all listed stocks, at that spot were 467 novel monthly highs as well as 417 novel lows.
* Using information from the Stock Charts site, I rail the number of NYSE stocks giving purchase versus sell signals across multiple technical indicators, such every bit Bollinger Bands, CCI, Parabolic, etc. Here also nosotros run across the waning strength recently. My mensurate of breadth volatility (the volatility of breadth readings) has picked upward lately from depression levels as well as that by as well as large has been associated amongst weak returns.
* Housing (XHB) has been relatively strong. Not then much commodities (DBC). Notice the strength of euro as well as yen versus the U.S.A. dollar (FXE as well as FXY). Hard to believe that is what ECB as well as BOJ desire to move seeing; Federal Reserve annotation the relative weakness of European (VGK) as well as Japanese stocks (EWJ).
Wednesday, Apr 6th
* We can't modify our behaviour unless we're aware of our behaviour patterns. Here's a neat postal service on self-awareness as well as trading from Tradeciety.
* The pullback inwards stocks continued on Tuesday, giving us the origin existent negative breadth reading we've had since the rally launched inwards February. (See nautical chart below). Across all exchanges, 270 stocks made fresh monthly highs as well as 492 registered novel monthly lows. (Data from Barchart). Only close 10% of SPX shares closed inwards a higher house their 3-day moving averages as well as close 15% inwards a higher house their 5-day averages (data from Index Indicators), telling us that the pullback has been broad. VIX has climbed inwards a higher house xv as well as nosotros saw greater seat buying across private shares.
* Yesterday I noted the expansion of purchase signals for stocks on the Stock Spotter site; those signals expanded fifty-fifty farther afterwards yesterday's weakness. This has by as well as large been positive for SPX. Their cyclical model for SPY is also quite bullish, which has backtested well. While I'm viewing this every bit a pullback inwards a bull stage of a wheel as well as await a retest of recent highs, I volition move watching the vigor of whatsoever bounce carefully. Given the breadth of the recent weakness, it would non surprise me if nosotros were to come inwards a to a greater extent than prolonged topping/range period. We should run across pronounced breadth divergences on forwards strength if that scenario were playing out.
* Note the considerable strength inwards high character corporate bonds (LQD). As noted a piffling land back, these are natural candidates for those seeking yield. On the other hand, high yield bonds (JNK) receive got been relative underperformers. This is a defensively minded market, which could also move why U.S.A. shares receive got been outperforming overseas ones (EFA).
Tuesday, Apr 5th
* Excellent postal service on trading strategy as well as tactics from The Crosshairs Trader. Very helpful inwards developing trading plans.
* We've seen a pullback inwards stocks and, amongst Monday's close, at 1 time receive got fewer than 50% of SPX shares closing inwards a higher house their 3- as well as 5-day moving averages. With 831 monthly novel highs as well as 288 novel lows, we're yet non seeing pregnant deterioration inwards the breadth data. Energy stocks receive got been the weakest grouping given the recent crude weakness, but I'm non seeing pregnant weakness amidst whatsoever of the sectors. Financials receive got been relatively apartment of late, then I receive got a unopen oculus on those.
* The realized volatility of VIX has hitting levels that receive got been consistent amongst past times marketplace peaks.
* I noticed that, every bit of yesterday's close, nosotros had an elevated number of purchase signals on the StockSpotter site. I proceed to move impressed amongst their work. Their forecast model for SPY also is bullish. When those 2 factors receive got been introduce since belatedly 2013, when I origin began tracking their numbers, returns v to 10 days out receive got been bullish. Specifically, we've been upward xix times, downward 8 over the side past times side 10 trading sessions for an average gain of +1.17%.
Monday, Apr 4th
* Long-term success, inwards trading as well as inwards life, way sustaining our passions. Here's how nosotros utilisation that.
* We're seeing fresh highs this morn as well as receive got almost exclusively erased the drib from belatedly December. Fri closed amongst 767 novel monthly highs across all exchanges versus 217 lows. Still no pregnant expansion of weakness inwards the upticks/downticks data, every bit nosotros closed Fri at fresh highs. Note that the cumulative upticks/downticks mensurate has vaulted inwards a higher house 2015 levels.
* Among SPX shares, novel 100-day highs outnumbered novel lows past times 127 issues (data from Index Indicators). That is the strongest breadth reading on that mensurate since the rally began inwards February. The concluding fourth dimension nosotros had a reading that potent was belatedly inwards 2014. Note how nosotros receive got stayed overbought inwards the novel high/low mensurate for a considerable period, attesting to the momentum of this rise.
* Note how crude has been moving lower solar daytime afterwards day, fifty-fifty every bit stocks receive got rallied to novel highs. The crude drib is noteworthy, coming on the backdrop of a weaker dollar. High yield corporate debt (JNK) has also failed to brand novel highs inwards the concluding duo of weeks as well as global stocks receive got lagged (EFA). Could it move that weaker makes for stronger? As long every bit we're seeing deflationary forces at work, the Fed is probable to hold a dovish stance.
* Insightful postal service on the misery of bull markets from The Reformed Broker. Many traders are temperamentally long vol; the 1 prediction you lot most rarely request heed is 1 for piffling get as well as piffling toll change.
* Going dorsum to 2010, if you lot accept the number of 5-day novel highs minus lows amidst SPX stocks as well as compare those to 20-day novel highs minus lows, you lot teach an interesting view. When that fourth dimension serial is divided into quartiles, nosotros notice that when 5-day novel highs/lows greatly overstep 20-day highs/lows, the side past times side v days inwards SPY average a gain of exactly +.04%. When 20-day novel highs/lows greatly overstep 5-day highs/lows, the side past times side v days receive got averaged a gain of +.39%. (Raw information from Index Indicators). Think of the implications for FOMO trading...
* We reversed Wednesday's strength yesterday, closing amongst 5-day novel highs/lows good below the 20-day level. Less than 20% of SPX shares closed inwards a higher house their 5-day moving averages and, for the origin fourth dimension since this rally began, fewer than 50% of stocks closed inwards a higher house their 20-day averages. My wheel mensurate is at 1 time neutral, every bit nosotros run off the recent potent readings (see below).
* VIX has jumped to inwards a higher house sixteen amongst yesterday's drop. I receive got built a model that predicts a normal VIX grade from 2 variables: recent toll modify as well as recent realized volatility. When VIX is to a greater extent than expensive than the model predicts it should move based on historical precedent, returns receive got been positive; when VIX is to a greater extent than inexpensive than the model predicts, nosotros receive got seen subnormal returns. Th of concluding calendar week through Mon of this week, nosotros hitting inexpensive levels inwards VIX valuation. With yesterday's drop, nosotros are dorsum to beingness expensive inwards VIX pricing. To give an idea, going dorsum to 2012, when VIX has been inwards its most richly priced quartile, the side past times side v days inwards SPY receive got averaged a gain of +.76%. When VIX has been most cheap, the side past times side v days receive got averaged a gain of exactly +.03%. In short, when options participants toll inwards also much vol, nosotros tend to teach higher prices--which implies a hateful reversion inwards vol!
Thursday, Apr 7th
* What would a startup community of traders expression like? Love this postal service from Howard Lindzon, mainly for the entrepreneurial zest I run across missing amidst then many traders as well as trading firms. Amazing what a difference it makes to move surrounded past times innovators who convey vision as well as optimism to the future. I run across precious piffling of that inwards the trading community.
* Stocks flora solid buying yesterday inwards the wake of oversold readings, but receive got pulled dorsum inwards overnight trade. My intermediate-term strength measure, which looks at novel highs versus lows for SPX shares on iii dissimilar fourth dimension frames, continues to run off its extended readings. Many of my cycle-based measures expression similar. We're getting fewer novel highs amidst stocks as well as novel lows receive got ticked higher the concluding 2 sessions. Yesterday, across all listed stocks, at that spot were 467 novel monthly highs as well as 417 novel lows.
* Using information from the Stock Charts site, I rail the number of NYSE stocks giving purchase versus sell signals across multiple technical indicators, such every bit Bollinger Bands, CCI, Parabolic, etc. Here also nosotros run across the waning strength recently. My mensurate of breadth volatility (the volatility of breadth readings) has picked upward lately from depression levels as well as that by as well as large has been associated amongst weak returns.
* Housing (XHB) has been relatively strong. Not then much commodities (DBC). Notice the strength of euro as well as yen versus the U.S.A. dollar (FXE as well as FXY). Hard to believe that is what ECB as well as BOJ desire to move seeing; Federal Reserve annotation the relative weakness of European (VGK) as well as Japanese stocks (EWJ).
Wednesday, Apr 6th
* We can't modify our behaviour unless we're aware of our behaviour patterns. Here's a neat postal service on self-awareness as well as trading from Tradeciety.
* The pullback inwards stocks continued on Tuesday, giving us the origin existent negative breadth reading we've had since the rally launched inwards February. (See nautical chart below). Across all exchanges, 270 stocks made fresh monthly highs as well as 492 registered novel monthly lows. (Data from Barchart). Only close 10% of SPX shares closed inwards a higher house their 3-day moving averages as well as close 15% inwards a higher house their 5-day averages (data from Index Indicators), telling us that the pullback has been broad. VIX has climbed inwards a higher house xv as well as nosotros saw greater seat buying across private shares.
* Yesterday I noted the expansion of purchase signals for stocks on the Stock Spotter site; those signals expanded fifty-fifty farther afterwards yesterday's weakness. This has by as well as large been positive for SPX. Their cyclical model for SPY is also quite bullish, which has backtested well. While I'm viewing this every bit a pullback inwards a bull stage of a wheel as well as await a retest of recent highs, I volition move watching the vigor of whatsoever bounce carefully. Given the breadth of the recent weakness, it would non surprise me if nosotros were to come inwards a to a greater extent than prolonged topping/range period. We should run across pronounced breadth divergences on forwards strength if that scenario were playing out.
* Note the considerable strength inwards high character corporate bonds (LQD). As noted a piffling land back, these are natural candidates for those seeking yield. On the other hand, high yield bonds (JNK) receive got been relative underperformers. This is a defensively minded market, which could also move why U.S.A. shares receive got been outperforming overseas ones (EFA).
Tuesday, Apr 5th
* Excellent postal service on trading strategy as well as tactics from The Crosshairs Trader. Very helpful inwards developing trading plans.
* We've seen a pullback inwards stocks and, amongst Monday's close, at 1 time receive got fewer than 50% of SPX shares closing inwards a higher house their 3- as well as 5-day moving averages. With 831 monthly novel highs as well as 288 novel lows, we're yet non seeing pregnant deterioration inwards the breadth data. Energy stocks receive got been the weakest grouping given the recent crude weakness, but I'm non seeing pregnant weakness amidst whatsoever of the sectors. Financials receive got been relatively apartment of late, then I receive got a unopen oculus on those.
* The realized volatility of VIX has hitting levels that receive got been consistent amongst past times marketplace peaks.
* I noticed that, every bit of yesterday's close, nosotros had an elevated number of purchase signals on the StockSpotter site. I proceed to move impressed amongst their work. Their forecast model for SPY also is bullish. When those 2 factors receive got been introduce since belatedly 2013, when I origin began tracking their numbers, returns v to 10 days out receive got been bullish. Specifically, we've been upward xix times, downward 8 over the side past times side 10 trading sessions for an average gain of +1.17%.
Monday, Apr 4th
* Long-term success, inwards trading as well as inwards life, way sustaining our passions. Here's how nosotros utilisation that.
* We're seeing fresh highs this morn as well as receive got almost exclusively erased the drib from belatedly December. Fri closed amongst 767 novel monthly highs across all exchanges versus 217 lows. Still no pregnant expansion of weakness inwards the upticks/downticks data, every bit nosotros closed Fri at fresh highs. Note that the cumulative upticks/downticks mensurate has vaulted inwards a higher house 2015 levels.
* Among SPX shares, novel 100-day highs outnumbered novel lows past times 127 issues (data from Index Indicators). That is the strongest breadth reading on that mensurate since the rally began inwards February. The concluding fourth dimension nosotros had a reading that potent was belatedly inwards 2014. Note how nosotros receive got stayed overbought inwards the novel high/low mensurate for a considerable period, attesting to the momentum of this rise.
* Note how crude has been moving lower solar daytime afterwards day, fifty-fifty every bit stocks receive got rallied to novel highs. The crude drib is noteworthy, coming on the backdrop of a weaker dollar. High yield corporate debt (JNK) has also failed to brand novel highs inwards the concluding duo of weeks as well as global stocks receive got lagged (EFA). Could it move that weaker makes for stronger? As long every bit we're seeing deflationary forces at work, the Fed is probable to hold a dovish stance.
No comments:
Post a Comment