Friday, Apr 1st
* Top twenty people to follow on Stock Twits as well as Twitter for corking marketplace position content. Of course, Ivaylo is besides pocket-size to include himself, hence I'll nominate him hither both for his spider web log content as well as his books.
* We've pulled dorsum from recent highs, equally my measures of realized resultant fourth dimension volatility hold lower--a province of affairs that, inwards the past, has been associated amongst subnormal forrard returns. Stocks making novel monthly highs across all exchanges declined from 1221 to 822; monthly lows ticked upward from 106 to 137. So it's difficult to say that nosotros pick out weak breadth. As noted yesterday, my mensurate of upticks vs. downticks has continued positive. Yesterday was positive, but full institutional participation contracted least since the rally began. Again, this has been associated historically amongst subnormal returns. Institutional participation is a mensurate of full upticks as well as downticks across all NYSE shares (not mass traded). The depression mass as well as volatility brand me non peculiarly bullish; the absence of novel lows as well as downticks brand me non peculiarly bearish.
* My cycle mensurate continues inwards positive territory but off its highs. Many of my breadth measures await this way: positive, but off their peaks. Note how we've stayed positive for much longer than during recent cycles--again a tell that this has been to a greater extent than than a comport marketplace position rally or fifty-fifty a bounce higher inwards a make market.
* Are in that location microtrends inside the marketplace position as well as are these tradeable? Hell, I pick out no idea, but I'm researching it. Will permit y'all know what I find. This volition live on a purely systematic implementation. My other inquiry projection is identifying longer term cycles inwards the stock market, amongst information going dorsum to 1980. This is based on a unique implementation of the resultant fourth dimension concept. Basing resultant fourth dimension on mass doesn't move because of the secular differences inwards mass over the catamenia of decades. If you're non innovating, you're stagnating. Too many traders pat themselves on the dorsum for doing the same affair 1 time again as well as 1 time again as well as calling it discipline. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 disciplined implementation of an outmoded approach volition lose coin amongst admirable consistency.
* If y'all await at stocks exterior the U.S., such equally the EFA ETF, the longer-term motion painting is pretty unimpressive. It is non clear to me that negative rates are having the desired affect overseas. If this is the case, nosotros could run into to a greater extent than aggressive key depository fiscal establishment stimulation of economies, peculiarly if those indicators of deflation--strengthening currencies, weakening commodities, etc.--become to a greater extent than problematic.
Thursday, March 31st
* Is the housing marketplace position strong or weak? See It Market notes mixed signals amidst furnish constraints.
* Oil as well as commodities overall (DBC) pick out been lagging stock toll gains recently; keeping an oculus on that relationship. I'm also noticing high yield bonds (JNK) lagging recent toll gains inwards stocks. These relationships were key during the catamenia of marketplace position weakness.
* Stocks rallied nicely early on yesterday, 1 time again posting fresh rally highs earlier pulling back. Breadth 1 time once again expanded, amongst over one m stocks across all exchanges posting fresh monthly highs. My mensurate of upticks vs. downticks continued quite strong; below nosotros tin run into a 10-day moving average. As mentioned before, mass has non been impressive, but the mass traded has been quite skewed toward the buyers:
* One of my pure volatility measures continues at levels to a greater extent than consistent amongst marketplace position highs than lows. Note VIX straightaway trading a flake higher upward 13. This has the potential to significantly constrain directional movement across all fourth dimension frames. There is less mass traded, *and* each unit of measurement of mass moves toll less.
* Note the continued forcefulness of liquid, high character corporate bonds (LQD). In a globe of depression as well as fifty-fifty negative rates, whatever yield becomes a prophylactic haven. Hence the surroundings inwards which stocks as well as bonds pick out been jointly outperforming (the conduct a chance parity trade).
Wednesday, March 30th
* New Trader U highlights 22 bad trading habits. Notice how many of them boil downwards to non existence rule-governed, where the rules reverberate trading strengths as well as identified best trading practices. That suggests that traders are suffering, non simply because they don't written report markets, but because they haven't genuinely studied their ain performance.
* Stocks liked the statements of the Fed chair as well as that has lifted us to a novel high for this rally. Interestingly, across all stocks on all exchanges, iii calendar month novel highs versus lows are lagging their peak from a dyad of weeks agone (see below). Among SPX shares, however, fresh 100-day highs vs. lows did hitting a marginal novel peak. I would larn concerned nearly the uptrend if stocks making fresh novel lows were to expand from here.
* Once again, nosotros saw buying pressure level completely dominate selling pressure level via the uptick/downtick measures. This lifted the cumulative uptick/downtick mensurate to novel highs (see below). As noted yesterday, mass has non been stellar (though it picked upward yesterday), but what mass has been in that location has been strongly skewed to the buyers as well as that has been associated historically amongst favorable near-term returns (upside momentum).
Tuesday, March 29th
* How tin y'all honor merchandise opportunities that others miss? Here is a procedure that tin assistance y'all larn amend at perceiving opportunity.
* Meh. Volume has been quite lackluster, as well as that is to a greater extent than typical of marketplace position tops than bottoms. We remain inwards relatively oversold territory on my swing measures as well as my measures of upticks vs. downticks remain strong. So my base of operations illustration remains a continued displace higher, but I can't say I'm peculiarly impressed amongst recent action. Financial as well as unloosen energy shares pick out been relatively weak as well as I hold to hold an oculus on little caps. Perhaps calendar month end/quarter cease flows volition convey about life to the market. Stocks making fresh monthly highs did uptick yesterday as well as I'm non seeing an influx of selling at all. Of the (low) mass acquaint yesterday, buyers were dominant.
* Put/call ratios were depression yesterday; shares outstanding for SPY pick out been modestly elevated. Bears are relatively absent.
* We're working off quite an overbought level, per the intermediate-term forcefulness nautical chart below, which tracks the release of SPX shares making novel highs vs. lows on multiple fourth dimension frames. To the extent that nosotros tin produce hence amongst minimal toll damage, it is supportive to the bulls.
Monday, March 28th
* In illustration y'all missed, here's my latest podcast; thank y'all to Chat With Traders.
* We've bounced from a swing oversold degree and, equally nosotros tin run into below, are non yet at an overbought level.
* Buying involvement hitting a novel rally high amongst this most recent bounce. This mensurate tracks upticks versus downticks for all listed stocks, non simply those on NYSE.
* The 1 wing inwards the ointment that I run into is the depression mass as well as volatility, which are associated historically amongst subnormal forrard returns over an intermediate-term horizon. My mensurate of cumulative upticking as well as downticking is non yet at such a depression request that would advise pathetic near-term returns. As a rule, bull moves decease amongst an absence of buyers. It's something I'm monitoring daily.
* Top twenty people to follow on Stock Twits as well as Twitter for corking marketplace position content. Of course, Ivaylo is besides pocket-size to include himself, hence I'll nominate him hither both for his spider web log content as well as his books.
* We've pulled dorsum from recent highs, equally my measures of realized resultant fourth dimension volatility hold lower--a province of affairs that, inwards the past, has been associated amongst subnormal forrard returns. Stocks making novel monthly highs across all exchanges declined from 1221 to 822; monthly lows ticked upward from 106 to 137. So it's difficult to say that nosotros pick out weak breadth. As noted yesterday, my mensurate of upticks vs. downticks has continued positive. Yesterday was positive, but full institutional participation contracted least since the rally began. Again, this has been associated historically amongst subnormal returns. Institutional participation is a mensurate of full upticks as well as downticks across all NYSE shares (not mass traded). The depression mass as well as volatility brand me non peculiarly bullish; the absence of novel lows as well as downticks brand me non peculiarly bearish.
* My cycle mensurate continues inwards positive territory but off its highs. Many of my breadth measures await this way: positive, but off their peaks. Note how we've stayed positive for much longer than during recent cycles--again a tell that this has been to a greater extent than than a comport marketplace position rally or fifty-fifty a bounce higher inwards a make market.
* Are in that location microtrends inside the marketplace position as well as are these tradeable? Hell, I pick out no idea, but I'm researching it. Will permit y'all know what I find. This volition live on a purely systematic implementation. My other inquiry projection is identifying longer term cycles inwards the stock market, amongst information going dorsum to 1980. This is based on a unique implementation of the resultant fourth dimension concept. Basing resultant fourth dimension on mass doesn't move because of the secular differences inwards mass over the catamenia of decades. If you're non innovating, you're stagnating. Too many traders pat themselves on the dorsum for doing the same affair 1 time again as well as 1 time again as well as calling it discipline. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 disciplined implementation of an outmoded approach volition lose coin amongst admirable consistency.
* If y'all await at stocks exterior the U.S., such equally the EFA ETF, the longer-term motion painting is pretty unimpressive. It is non clear to me that negative rates are having the desired affect overseas. If this is the case, nosotros could run into to a greater extent than aggressive key depository fiscal establishment stimulation of economies, peculiarly if those indicators of deflation--strengthening currencies, weakening commodities, etc.--become to a greater extent than problematic.
Thursday, March 31st
* Is the housing marketplace position strong or weak? See It Market notes mixed signals amidst furnish constraints.
* Oil as well as commodities overall (DBC) pick out been lagging stock toll gains recently; keeping an oculus on that relationship. I'm also noticing high yield bonds (JNK) lagging recent toll gains inwards stocks. These relationships were key during the catamenia of marketplace position weakness.
* Stocks rallied nicely early on yesterday, 1 time again posting fresh rally highs earlier pulling back. Breadth 1 time once again expanded, amongst over one m stocks across all exchanges posting fresh monthly highs. My mensurate of upticks vs. downticks continued quite strong; below nosotros tin run into a 10-day moving average. As mentioned before, mass has non been impressive, but the mass traded has been quite skewed toward the buyers:
* One of my pure volatility measures continues at levels to a greater extent than consistent amongst marketplace position highs than lows. Note VIX straightaway trading a flake higher upward 13. This has the potential to significantly constrain directional movement across all fourth dimension frames. There is less mass traded, *and* each unit of measurement of mass moves toll less.
* Note the continued forcefulness of liquid, high character corporate bonds (LQD). In a globe of depression as well as fifty-fifty negative rates, whatever yield becomes a prophylactic haven. Hence the surroundings inwards which stocks as well as bonds pick out been jointly outperforming (the conduct a chance parity trade).
Wednesday, March 30th
* New Trader U highlights 22 bad trading habits. Notice how many of them boil downwards to non existence rule-governed, where the rules reverberate trading strengths as well as identified best trading practices. That suggests that traders are suffering, non simply because they don't written report markets, but because they haven't genuinely studied their ain performance.
* Stocks liked the statements of the Fed chair as well as that has lifted us to a novel high for this rally. Interestingly, across all stocks on all exchanges, iii calendar month novel highs versus lows are lagging their peak from a dyad of weeks agone (see below). Among SPX shares, however, fresh 100-day highs vs. lows did hitting a marginal novel peak. I would larn concerned nearly the uptrend if stocks making fresh novel lows were to expand from here.
* Once again, nosotros saw buying pressure level completely dominate selling pressure level via the uptick/downtick measures. This lifted the cumulative uptick/downtick mensurate to novel highs (see below). As noted yesterday, mass has non been stellar (though it picked upward yesterday), but what mass has been in that location has been strongly skewed to the buyers as well as that has been associated historically amongst favorable near-term returns (upside momentum).
Tuesday, March 29th
* How tin y'all honor merchandise opportunities that others miss? Here is a procedure that tin assistance y'all larn amend at perceiving opportunity.
* Meh. Volume has been quite lackluster, as well as that is to a greater extent than typical of marketplace position tops than bottoms. We remain inwards relatively oversold territory on my swing measures as well as my measures of upticks vs. downticks remain strong. So my base of operations illustration remains a continued displace higher, but I can't say I'm peculiarly impressed amongst recent action. Financial as well as unloosen energy shares pick out been relatively weak as well as I hold to hold an oculus on little caps. Perhaps calendar month end/quarter cease flows volition convey about life to the market. Stocks making fresh monthly highs did uptick yesterday as well as I'm non seeing an influx of selling at all. Of the (low) mass acquaint yesterday, buyers were dominant.
* Put/call ratios were depression yesterday; shares outstanding for SPY pick out been modestly elevated. Bears are relatively absent.
* We're working off quite an overbought level, per the intermediate-term forcefulness nautical chart below, which tracks the release of SPX shares making novel highs vs. lows on multiple fourth dimension frames. To the extent that nosotros tin produce hence amongst minimal toll damage, it is supportive to the bulls.
Monday, March 28th
* In illustration y'all missed, here's my latest podcast; thank y'all to Chat With Traders.
* We've bounced from a swing oversold degree and, equally nosotros tin run into below, are non yet at an overbought level.
* Buying involvement hitting a novel rally high amongst this most recent bounce. This mensurate tracks upticks versus downticks for all listed stocks, non simply those on NYSE.
* The 1 wing inwards the ointment that I run into is the depression mass as well as volatility, which are associated historically amongst subnormal forrard returns over an intermediate-term horizon. My mensurate of cumulative upticking as well as downticking is non yet at such a depression request that would advise pathetic near-term returns. As a rule, bull moves decease amongst an absence of buyers. It's something I'm monitoring daily.
No comments:
Post a Comment