Info!! Random Observations

*  If you lot decompose marketplace behaviour into a linear, tendency cistron together with i or to a greater extent than cyclical components, you lot tin seat optimal fourth dimension horizons for asset positions.  Those optimal horizons are much longer than traders together with portfolio managers typically hold.  Most people concord positions for shorter-than-optimal periods because of such factors equally the postulate to trade, the fearfulness of losing money, overly tight opportunity management, etc. 

*  Trends together with cycles run out to a greater extent than regular together with noticeable when measured inwards number time, equally opposed to chronological time.  Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 uncomplicated illustration of number fourth dimension would locomote bars denominated inwards book rather than minutes, hours, days, or weeks.  When assessing long-term cycles, the telephone commutation is finding a agency to stair out number fourth dimension given the variability of book across instruments, across decades.  Such number cycles are to the lowest degree stable over curt fourth dimension horizons; much to a greater extent than stable over longer horizons, per the starting fourth dimension signal above.

*  Who is inwards the marketplace determines how the marketplace volition move.  If nosotros hold off at each transaction inwards each stock traded together with assess whether the merchandise occurs on an uptick or downtick--and if nosotros cumulate those information daily for many years--what nosotros run into is that a) buying together with selling (activity on upticks together with downticks) are dissimilar activities amongst their dissever impacts on futurity marketplace behavior; b) the full activity of participants (total upticking together with downticking) is a practiced proxy for institutional participation inwards markets; together with c) the marketplace is significantly to a greater extent than probable to rising next periods of high institutional participation.  To simplify a bit, cycles spill out because of the waxing together with waning participation of agents that movement the market.

*  Strong buying (activity on upticks) tends to fuel futurity buying (momentum).  Heavy selling (activity on downticks) tends to fuel futurity buying (value).  Weak buying together with selling (little activity) tends to atomic number 82 to subnormal returns per the signal above.  Shifts inwards buying together with selling over fifty-fifty a curt fourth dimension horizon tin deport on returns days together with fifty-fifty weeks forward.

*  The worst traders are permabears together with permabulls.  By definition, they create non accommodate to marketplace cycles.  They merchandise their predilections, non the objective activity of the marketplace.  

*  An declaration tin locomote made that the lows pose inwards during Jan together with Feb were purpose of a longer-term cyclical bottom together with that the recent upswing has significantly to a greater extent than (event) fourth dimension to run.  Frankly, I tin intend of many reasons for the marketplace to weaken from here, only that's non what my analyses are telling me.  

Further Reading:  Trading Coaches As Whores
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