Info!! When The Stock Index Is Potent As Well As Stocks Are Weak

I lately posted a few observations virtually how the underperformance of modest cap stocks relative to the large caps.  Even to a greater extent than concerning to me has been how stocks making novel lows bring dominated novel highs despite the large cap indexes hovering nigh their highs.  As the nautical chart higher upwards shows, nosotros bring consistently seen fresh three-month lows outnumber three-month highs across the wide universe of mutual stocks.  Indeed, if nosotros only hold off at the NYSE universe on Friday--a twenty-four hours inwards which the DJIA touched fresh highs--we meet that 69 stocks made 52-week highs in addition to threescore made annual lows.  That is pretty pitiful breadth.

My leaning is to translate such divergences bearishly.  Still, alongside a VIX closing below thirteen on Friday, it's far from clear to me that we're inwards deport territory.  So I decided to investigate.

Specifically, I went dorsum to the get-go of 1990 in addition to looked at all occasions inwards which the S&P 500 Index shut inside 2% of its 200-day high nether the next conditions:  a) VIX < 15; b) novel 52-week highs nether 100; in addition to c) novel 52-week lows over 50.  

My database spit dorsum 38 occasions.  These included dates in:  November/December 1993; Oct 1994; Jan through March, 1995; Oct 1995; June 1996; November/December 2005; Apr 2006; June 2007; August/September 2013; in addition to November/December 2013.  

That raised my eyebrows.  One payoff of beingness my historic menses is that I've closely followed or traded all those markets.  Those were non deport markets--and they were non markets on the brink of the bear.

Indeed, looking across the 38 occasions, the adjacent 20 trading sessions averaged a attain of 1.9% in addition to the adjacent l sessions averaged a attain of 3.51%, alongside exclusively a handful of losing instances inwards each case.

Now, my determination is non to jump inwards alongside both hands in addition to purchase this market.  Rather, the information practise has accomplished ii things:  1) tempered my bearish leaning; in addition to 2) illuminated the form of marketplace nosotros are in.

I abide by this to last truthful of information exercises inwards general.  They offering a form of perspective that checks assumptions in addition to biases in addition to tin trigger novel ideas every bit well.  The historical perspective is non e'er the right perspective, but it oftentimes is a fresh one--and at that spot is value inwards examining one's assumptions critically.

Further Reading:  Top Ten Reasons Traders Lose Discipline
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