Info!! Are Nosotros Headed For A Stock Marketplace Set Crash?

There convey been about reports of very weak NYSE TICK statistics too the possibility those could foreshadow a stock marketplace position crash.  I've received several requests to update my Cumulative TICK Line for readers.  This consists of the summed full of five-minute high-low-close values for NYSE TICK (upticks minus downticks for all NYSE shares).  As yous tin see, the cumulative describe has been making novel highs--not diverging from large cap indexes.

I realize Mr. Cook looks at a proprietary version of this indicator, merely the criterion version has been unusually strong.  (My information come upward from e-Signal).  

As a check, I constructed a like indicator, merely immediately using upticks too downticks for every unmarried USA stock.  That includes NASDAQ too microcap issues every bit good every bit NYSE shares.  My idea was that this mightiness demo greater weakness, given the pocket-size cap underperformance of late.  It, too, however, has been hitting novel highs inward recent days.

My historical interrogation suggests that marketplace position volatility bottoms out good inward advance of bull marketplace position cost peaks.  That was the example inward the survive upward to the peaks inward the belatedly 1990s, 2000, too 2007-8.  It was also the example inward the survive ups to the large peaks inward the belatedly 1920s, 1968, too 1972.  With a VIX non far off its bull lows too realized volatility virtually bull marketplace position lows every bit well, this suggests that we may ask to reckon to a greater extent than creature spirits earlier nosotros run across whatsoever crash.

Further Reading:  Bubbles, Booms, too Busts
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