* Getting More Volatile? - Options volatility, equally measured past times the VIX, has quieted downward from before inwards 2008, equally the to a higher house nautical chart illustrates. Note, however, that nosotros convey only made a multi-week closing high inwards VIX afterwards having bottomed at a grade to a higher house that inwards May. The 1300 grade inwards the S&P emini futures is increasingly looking similar formidable resistance.
* Liquidity Drying Up - I come across that Rennie Yang, writer of the fantabulous Market Tells service, observes that 20-day book inwards the stock marketplace position has made a seven-year low. "Once inwards 2004 as well as a duet of times inwards the 70's NYSE book striking a three-year low," he observes, "but this is the outset fourth dimension inwards the final 50 years we've seen it striking a 5-year+ low. Volume is non only low, it's really low." Of course, it's non only that book is low; it's that nosotros are seeing reduced book next a bounce from the mid-July lows. If you lot recollect inwards Market Profile terms, this way that higher prices are failing to attract participation--not something you'd await to come across if this were a fresh bull marketplace position leg.
* Where is the Retail Trader? - An interesting article inwards the September 2d Financial Times points out that "individual ownership of United States of America stocks has fallen to a tape low, underscoring the increasing importance of institutional investors inwards domestic equity markets." At the halt of 2006, retail investors owned 34% of all shares available as well as 24% of all stock inwards the elevation chiliad companies, compared amongst 94% of all shares inwards 1950 as well as 63% of stock inwards 1980. When nosotros examine book trends inwards markets, clearly we're analyzing the behaviour of institutions, non Mom as well as Pop.
* Checking Readership - I've mentioned on a number of occasions that the readership of this weblog tends to spike during acquit marketplace position swings as well as clit dorsum during bullish moves. Since the summertime of 2007, this has formed a rather accurate timing tool amongst abide by to intermediate-term marketplace position tops as well as bottoms. The designing of readership of slow has been consistent amongst tops, non bottoms, inwards the market.
* Hmmm... - Yes, the marketplace position looks weak correct now, as well as I wouldn't live surprised to come across us assay out the July lows before besides long. That having been said, I notice that we're knocking at the door of multi-month highs inwards retail stocks (RTH) as well as that we're posting multi-week highs inwards housing stocks ($HGX). Not precisely what you'd await if all were going to hell inwards a handbasket...a lot of issues mightiness live setting upward for non-confirmations of whatsoever assay out of lows.
* Inflation Themes Deflating? - Commodities, equally measured past times DBC, convey moved from the 46 surface area to the 36 surface area since July; 10-year Treasury yields are at multi-week lows. Not precisely what you'd await to live seeing if inflation were continuing to oestrus up.
* Who'd Have Thunk It? - Talk most sector rotation! I only posted to Twitter: 0% of S&P 500 release energy stocks are trading to a higher house their 50-day moving averages, but 70% of fiscal stocks as well as 73% of consumer discretionary issues.
* Change inwards the Winds - Starting tomorrow, volition live taking a novel direction. Yeah, yeah, I relieve dessert for last...Stay tuned...
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