Info!! How Worried Are Investors Near This Stock Market?

There are many ways of measurement investor as well as trader persuasion almost the stock market:  put-call ratios, surveys, measures of breadth, etc.  One interesting stair out is to come across how actively people behavior searches on a topic via Google.  It turns out that a stair out of worry almost marketplace position related topics can last an effective predictor of prices.  Above, nosotros come across the nautical chart for searches conducted on the topic of "bear market", equally captured via Google Trends. 

Notice the spikes inward searches laid out inward January, 2008, earlier the worst of the behavior marketplace position had taken hold.  We likewise come across smaller spikes inward August through Oct of 2011 as well as withal smaller ones inward April-June of 2013, as well as this calendar month then far.  As the stock marketplace position has leave of absence less volatile since the GFC, nosotros come across lower volatility inward the fourth dimension serial of searches for "bear market".  Note Google's extrapolation to forecast search activeness for 2015:  it likewise remains tame.

While nosotros direct maintain a blip higher inward behavior marketplace position searches, those are then far nowhere close equally high equally the searches inward 2011 as well as for sure non equally pervasive equally inward 2008.  Investors are non just complacent:  October's search grade is 24--higher than whatever other calendar month of 2014--and the calendar month is entirely one-half over.  Still, the grade of bearishness yesteryear this stair out is consistent therefore far amongst what would last seen inward a bull marketplace position correction, non an outright behavior market. 

Further Reading:  Equity Put-Call Ratio
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