Friday, Feb 5th
* Despite a forenoon selloff afterwards early on strength, stocks finished the solar daytime on the theater side. 432 stocks across all exchanges touched monthly highs versus 293 monthly lows. Over 50% of SPX shares are trading inwards a higher house their 3, 5, 10, too 20-day moving averages. I am watching closely to come across if breadth tin expand inwards today's trade. The reply to the non-farm payrolls publish volition induce got a lot to produce with that.
* Interestingly, my wheel measures are nigh levels that induce got corresponded to marketplace tops. Should nosotros endure unable to surmount the highs reached on Feb 1st, that would invite the hypothesis that we've position inwards an intermediate-term run past times too are probable to retest recent lows.
* Working off the oversold wheel readings with a relatively pocket-size bounce from the lows is 1 time once to a greater extent than an indication that the 2016 marketplace is dissimilar from those experienced inwards 2014 too 2015. The weaker US of America dollar has added an interesting chemical component to stock prices. Note the recent forcefulness of raw materials percentage (XLB). The bounce inwards housing shares (XHB) has non been impressive.
Wednesday, Feb 3rd
* Tuesday's merchandise inwards ES nicely illustrated the dynamics of a downside tendency day, including an opening cost nigh the high cost for the solar daytime session; negative NYSE TICK dominating positive readings, with many readings < -800; a real negative advance/decline line; too a slap-up bulk of NYSE stocks trading below their VWAPs for the day. Trend days oftentimes characteristic inwards a higher house average volume, every bit directional, macro participants limited an intermarket theme. In yesterday's case, nosotros saw the resumption of the risk-off merchandise involving oil, stocks, high yield credit, too emerging markets. I am watching those intermarket relationships carefully from solar daytime to day.
* H5N1 useful short-term overbought/oversold mensurate is a five-day moving average of upticking vs. downticking with NYSE stocks. Note how nosotros reached a short-term peak recently.
Tuesday, Feb 2nd
* After early on weakness, nosotros continued to motion higher on Monday, hitting a novel high for the recent rally off the lows. Across all exchanges, nosotros had 502 shares register fresh monthly novel highs against 251 novel lows. That is a pocket-size expansion from Friday's levels. Oil continues to come upwardly good off its recent highs too we've seen selling inwards stocks inwards premarket trading. Interestingly, stocks are lower inwards Nippon next the BOJ activity too we're downward inwards Europe every bit well. At to the lowest degree then far, the rally off the lows yet strikes me every bit usage of a bottoming process, non a fresh bull marketplace leg.
* Here's a await at 1 of my primary wheel measures. My base of operations illustration that this wheel volition run past times out at a lower cost high too Pb to a exam of the recent marketplace lows. Should nosotros come across waning breadth on the upside on futurity strength, that would add together acceptance to this view. As of Monday's close, nosotros were short-term overbought, with over 80% of SPX shares closing inwards a higher house their 3, 5, too 10-day moving averages. (Data from Index Indicators; it's a slap-up site for breadth info).
* H5N1 await at sectors from the first-class FinViz site finds that yield-sensitive utility too consumer staples shares induce got led marketplace performance year-to-date. Interestingly, fiscal shares are with the largest losers during 2016 hence far. Given concerns over debt--China too high yield--this is non a bullish configuration of sector strength. It's clearly defensive.
Monday, Feb 1st
* Here's a valuable self-coaching technique to assistance preclude impulsive conclusion making inwards the oestrus of trading.
* I was less than enamored with the bounce nosotros had made off the lows when I wrote Friday's entry, but flows changed radically with the New York open, every bit nosotros saw consistent rigid buying inwards the wake of the BOJ's negative charge per unit of measurement decision. After a rigid opening rise, nosotros saw pregnant selling push clitoris per unit of measurement area belatedly inwards the morning, which completely failed to induce got the marketplace significantly lower. From at that spot buyers remained inwards control, every bit nosotros completed a tendency day. One of the of import takeaways from the session is the importance of viewing each major fourth dimension catamenia (Asia; Europe; US) every bit a distinct "day", with its ain develop of marketplace participants. When nosotros come across discontinuity from 1 fourth dimension catamenia to another, that is of import data too requires quick adjustment.
* Breadth expanded significantly with Friday's rigid rise. Across all exchanges, nosotros saw 436 fresh monthly highs against 296 lows. It was the get-go fourth dimension since Dec 30th that monthly highs induce got outnumbered lows. Similarly, Fri saw over 80% of SPX stocks unopen inwards a higher house their three too 5-day moving averages too nigh 80% inwards a higher house their 10-day averages. This was non exclusively a rigid rally, but a wide one. If, indeed, the BOJ conclusion was a game-changer for stocks, nosotros should non revisit the ship service BOJ lows from Friday. H5N1 provide to that 1880 expanse would endure an of import reversal from a longer-term perspective, too 1 that would endure consistent with the topping persuasion outlined final week.
* We've pulled dorsum inwards overnight trade, with a abrupt refuse inwards oil. I am watching carefully to come across if that correlation betwixt stocks too crude oil reasserts itself. I'm besides watching closely to come across if nosotros tin rest inwards a higher house that 1880 degree inwards the ES futures outlined above.
* Despite a forenoon selloff afterwards early on strength, stocks finished the solar daytime on the theater side. 432 stocks across all exchanges touched monthly highs versus 293 monthly lows. Over 50% of SPX shares are trading inwards a higher house their 3, 5, 10, too 20-day moving averages. I am watching closely to come across if breadth tin expand inwards today's trade. The reply to the non-farm payrolls publish volition induce got a lot to produce with that.
* Interestingly, my wheel measures are nigh levels that induce got corresponded to marketplace tops. Should nosotros endure unable to surmount the highs reached on Feb 1st, that would invite the hypothesis that we've position inwards an intermediate-term run past times too are probable to retest recent lows.
Wednesday, Feb 3rd
* Tuesday's merchandise inwards ES nicely illustrated the dynamics of a downside tendency day, including an opening cost nigh the high cost for the solar daytime session; negative NYSE TICK dominating positive readings, with many readings < -800; a real negative advance/decline line; too a slap-up bulk of NYSE stocks trading below their VWAPs for the day. Trend days oftentimes characteristic inwards a higher house average volume, every bit directional, macro participants limited an intermarket theme. In yesterday's case, nosotros saw the resumption of the risk-off merchandise involving oil, stocks, high yield credit, too emerging markets. I am watching those intermarket relationships carefully from solar daytime to day.
* H5N1 useful short-term overbought/oversold mensurate is a five-day moving average of upticking vs. downticking with NYSE stocks. Note how nosotros reached a short-term peak recently.
Tuesday, Feb 2nd
* After early on weakness, nosotros continued to motion higher on Monday, hitting a novel high for the recent rally off the lows. Across all exchanges, nosotros had 502 shares register fresh monthly novel highs against 251 novel lows. That is a pocket-size expansion from Friday's levels. Oil continues to come upwardly good off its recent highs too we've seen selling inwards stocks inwards premarket trading. Interestingly, stocks are lower inwards Nippon next the BOJ activity too we're downward inwards Europe every bit well. At to the lowest degree then far, the rally off the lows yet strikes me every bit usage of a bottoming process, non a fresh bull marketplace leg.
* Here's a await at 1 of my primary wheel measures. My base of operations illustration that this wheel volition run past times out at a lower cost high too Pb to a exam of the recent marketplace lows. Should nosotros come across waning breadth on the upside on futurity strength, that would add together acceptance to this view. As of Monday's close, nosotros were short-term overbought, with over 80% of SPX shares closing inwards a higher house their 3, 5, too 10-day moving averages. (Data from Index Indicators; it's a slap-up site for breadth info).
* H5N1 await at sectors from the first-class FinViz site finds that yield-sensitive utility too consumer staples shares induce got led marketplace performance year-to-date. Interestingly, fiscal shares are with the largest losers during 2016 hence far. Given concerns over debt--China too high yield--this is non a bullish configuration of sector strength. It's clearly defensive.
Monday, Feb 1st
* Here's a valuable self-coaching technique to assistance preclude impulsive conclusion making inwards the oestrus of trading.
* I was less than enamored with the bounce nosotros had made off the lows when I wrote Friday's entry, but flows changed radically with the New York open, every bit nosotros saw consistent rigid buying inwards the wake of the BOJ's negative charge per unit of measurement decision. After a rigid opening rise, nosotros saw pregnant selling push clitoris per unit of measurement area belatedly inwards the morning, which completely failed to induce got the marketplace significantly lower. From at that spot buyers remained inwards control, every bit nosotros completed a tendency day. One of the of import takeaways from the session is the importance of viewing each major fourth dimension catamenia (Asia; Europe; US) every bit a distinct "day", with its ain develop of marketplace participants. When nosotros come across discontinuity from 1 fourth dimension catamenia to another, that is of import data too requires quick adjustment.
* Breadth expanded significantly with Friday's rigid rise. Across all exchanges, nosotros saw 436 fresh monthly highs against 296 lows. It was the get-go fourth dimension since Dec 30th that monthly highs induce got outnumbered lows. Similarly, Fri saw over 80% of SPX stocks unopen inwards a higher house their three too 5-day moving averages too nigh 80% inwards a higher house their 10-day averages. This was non exclusively a rigid rally, but a wide one. If, indeed, the BOJ conclusion was a game-changer for stocks, nosotros should non revisit the ship service BOJ lows from Friday. H5N1 provide to that 1880 expanse would endure an of import reversal from a longer-term perspective, too 1 that would endure consistent with the topping persuasion outlined final week.
* We've pulled dorsum inwards overnight trade, with a abrupt refuse inwards oil. I am watching carefully to come across if that correlation betwixt stocks too crude oil reasserts itself. I'm besides watching closely to come across if nosotros tin rest inwards a higher house that 1880 degree inwards the ES futures outlined above.
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