Thursday, Dec 31st
* I'm ever amazed how poorly traders perform inwards chore interview situations. Here is what years of experience, both every bit an interviewee together with an interviewer, get got taught me most winning at the chore interview.
* The weakness yesterday has continued into early on trading today, raising the odds that we've seen a toll peak for the electrical current cycle. If that is the case, nosotros could run into a meaningful correction dorsum toward prior wheel lows. As has been the illustration for a while, weakness inwards the crude oil marketplace has accompanied stock weakness.
* Here's where nosotros stand upwards amongst my favorite intermediate-term overbought/oversold measure. It appears to live on cresting, every bit produce my wheel measures.
My best wishes to readers for a happy, healthy, together with profitable 2016!!
Wednesday, Dec 30th
* I was looking for signs of weakening breadth inwards Tuesday's session together with what nosotros got was the reverse: consistent buying through the session, accompanied past times describe inwards commodities. New highs amid SPX stocks, besides every bit across all exchanges, hitting their highest grade since early on December. The nautical chart of breadth amid SPX stocks exclusively shows that nosotros snuff it on strong, amongst over 80% of stocks to a higher house their 3, 5, together with 10-day moving averages. While lucre taking from such levels is non at all unusual, that breadth describe is non typical of a marketplace most to morph into a bear.
* My intermediate wheel mensurate is maturing every bit shown below:
* My five-day mensurate of selling pressure level is at unusually depression levels, pregnant that it's been every bit much the absence of selling every bit the presence of huge buying that has lifted the marketplace recently. Past occasions when we've seen similar depression selling pressure level levels get got been slow December, 2014; slow February, 2015; the 3rd calendar week inwards March, 2015; together with the 3rd calendar week inwards May, 2015. All led to short-term moves lower inside a affair of days.
Tuesday, Dec 29th
* Continued lucre taking early on inwards the solar daytime on Mon led to an afternoon bounce together with farther describe overnight, every bit nosotros engage inwards what looks similar topping behavior. I volition live on watching breadth measures closely: if this, indeed, is topping, nosotros should run into reduced breadth. Yesterday nosotros had 311 stocks across all exchanges brand fresh monthly highs versus 239 novel lows. Two days earlier, the novel highs were 514 together with 168. Below is a nautical chart that tracks fresh three-month novel highs minus lows (red line) versus SPY (blue line):
* The relative weakness inwards commodity related sectors (XLB, XLE, XME) continues, every bit does relative weakness amid high yield bond funds (JNK, HYG) together with emerging marketplace stocks (EEM) together with Cathay (FXI). These snuff it on to live on on my radar, every bit they are important drags on stocks overall.
Monday, Dec 28th
* Friday's partial session finished amongst a slow decline, which has continued into the overnight session, every bit stocks seem to live on next crude oil prices. I snuff it on to hold off to commodity together with credit markets, besides every bit the relative functioning of emerging markets to developed markets, to update views on deflationary impacts upon the global economy. It is hard to envision a bull marketplace surroundings if we're seeing falling commodities, yield crimp flattening, weak emerging markets, together with distressed credit markets.
* Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 few of my overbought/oversold measures are non at levels commonly seen at marketplace tops, together with hence I'm opened upwards to the possibility of simply about back-and-forth crusade this week. Should nosotros locomote off the prior oversold grade inwards fourth dimension to a greater extent than than inwards toll together with pose inwards a lower high, that could ready the phase for a stronger downward move.
* It would non surprise me to run into lite trading this week, given many traders' want to get got fourth dimension off before the novel year. Low book mostly accompanies narrow ranges. So far, however, the day's downward motility inwards crude oil is non a pocket-size move. This is worth watching.
* I'm ever amazed how poorly traders perform inwards chore interview situations. Here is what years of experience, both every bit an interviewee together with an interviewer, get got taught me most winning at the chore interview.
* The weakness yesterday has continued into early on trading today, raising the odds that we've seen a toll peak for the electrical current cycle. If that is the case, nosotros could run into a meaningful correction dorsum toward prior wheel lows. As has been the illustration for a while, weakness inwards the crude oil marketplace has accompanied stock weakness.
* Here's where nosotros stand upwards amongst my favorite intermediate-term overbought/oversold measure. It appears to live on cresting, every bit produce my wheel measures.
My best wishes to readers for a happy, healthy, together with profitable 2016!!
Wednesday, Dec 30th
* I was looking for signs of weakening breadth inwards Tuesday's session together with what nosotros got was the reverse: consistent buying through the session, accompanied past times describe inwards commodities. New highs amid SPX stocks, besides every bit across all exchanges, hitting their highest grade since early on December. The nautical chart of breadth amid SPX stocks exclusively shows that nosotros snuff it on strong, amongst over 80% of stocks to a higher house their 3, 5, together with 10-day moving averages. While lucre taking from such levels is non at all unusual, that breadth describe is non typical of a marketplace most to morph into a bear.
* My intermediate wheel mensurate is maturing every bit shown below:
* My five-day mensurate of selling pressure level is at unusually depression levels, pregnant that it's been every bit much the absence of selling every bit the presence of huge buying that has lifted the marketplace recently. Past occasions when we've seen similar depression selling pressure level levels get got been slow December, 2014; slow February, 2015; the 3rd calendar week inwards March, 2015; together with the 3rd calendar week inwards May, 2015. All led to short-term moves lower inside a affair of days.
Tuesday, Dec 29th
* Continued lucre taking early on inwards the solar daytime on Mon led to an afternoon bounce together with farther describe overnight, every bit nosotros engage inwards what looks similar topping behavior. I volition live on watching breadth measures closely: if this, indeed, is topping, nosotros should run into reduced breadth. Yesterday nosotros had 311 stocks across all exchanges brand fresh monthly highs versus 239 novel lows. Two days earlier, the novel highs were 514 together with 168. Below is a nautical chart that tracks fresh three-month novel highs minus lows (red line) versus SPY (blue line):
* The relative weakness inwards commodity related sectors (XLB, XLE, XME) continues, every bit does relative weakness amid high yield bond funds (JNK, HYG) together with emerging marketplace stocks (EEM) together with Cathay (FXI). These snuff it on to live on on my radar, every bit they are important drags on stocks overall.
Monday, Dec 28th
* Friday's partial session finished amongst a slow decline, which has continued into the overnight session, every bit stocks seem to live on next crude oil prices. I snuff it on to hold off to commodity together with credit markets, besides every bit the relative functioning of emerging markets to developed markets, to update views on deflationary impacts upon the global economy. It is hard to envision a bull marketplace surroundings if we're seeing falling commodities, yield crimp flattening, weak emerging markets, together with distressed credit markets.
* Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 few of my overbought/oversold measures are non at levels commonly seen at marketplace tops, together with hence I'm opened upwards to the possibility of simply about back-and-forth crusade this week. Should nosotros locomote off the prior oversold grade inwards fourth dimension to a greater extent than than inwards toll together with pose inwards a lower high, that could ready the phase for a stronger downward move.
* It would non surprise me to run into lite trading this week, given many traders' want to get got fourth dimension off before the novel year. Low book mostly accompanies narrow ranges. So far, however, the day's downward motility inwards crude oil is non a pocket-size move. This is worth watching.
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