Friday, September 11th
* We're starting to view roughly expansion inward the publish of stocks registering fresh lows, amongst 213 novel monthly highs in addition to 305 novel monthly lows across all exchanges. The novel highs is the lowest figure inward the past times iii sessions; the novel lows is the highest figure inward the terminal iii sessions. I volition hold upwardly monitoring this closely, every bit it is consistent amongst a marketplace seat that is topping in addition to could exam recent cost lows.
* I'm too watching unsmooth crude oil in addition to copper for indications of weakness, every bit those receive got been amidst commodities reflecting weakness inward emerging markets.
* I receive got 1 model that is modestly bearish in addition to 1 that is neutral; both aspect 3-5 days out. We've seen roughly selling inward rate-sensitive stocks; banker's complaint the recent weakness inward TLT (rise inward rates). I volition hold upwardly watching rates closely every bit nosotros approach the Fed meeting; given the odd grade of speculation almost what the Fed volition do, in that location could hold upwardly quite a fighting of volatility associated amongst that meeting.
Thursday, September 10th
* Yesterday was a slap-up illustration of an occasion inward which cognitive flexibility is essential to trading. Of course, one of the of import ways nosotros tin rest cognitively flexible is past times having many ideas or patterns that we're looking at, hence that nosotros tin speedily arrange to marketplace seat conditions. I had mixed indications going into the day's trade, amongst models neutral to slightly bearish in addition to roughly indication of possible upside momentum over a several solar daytime period, per yesterday's post. Once nosotros opened, however, book flows were decidedly negative in addition to stayed that agency for much of the session. Because book stream is a volume-weighted stair out of upticks versus downticks for every stock, it captures the leaning of large traders to aggressively purchase or sell shares. Below is yesterday's nautical chart for book stream at 5-minute information points. Monitoring cumulative NYSE TICK is too rattling helpful inward this regard.
* One matter nosotros saw yesterday in addition to in 1 lawsuit to a greater extent than today's overnight marketplace seat is that flows tin shift greatly from 1 fourth dimension zone to another. I create non view high consistency of cost activity across Asian, European, in addition to the U.S.A. hours. That has existent implications for short-term traders. We had a bounce inward stocks inward Asian hours today in addition to late sold dorsum inward the the U.S.A. premarket. Assuming trending behaviour tin hold upwardly hazardous to our wealth.
* My models are mixed, 1 modestly bullish, 1 modestly bearish. Not a potent signal, hence I'm happy to allow the record verbalize for itself. I volition hold upwardly watching to view if nosotros tin rest higher upwardly yesterday's lows on whatever early on weakness inward today's trading. I'm too watching commodity markets per recent posts.
Wednesday, September 9th
* Buying weakness per yesterday's post service turned out to hold upwardly a winning strategy--much to a greater extent than than I anticipated, every bit stocks receive got rallied difficult on the heels of forcefulness inward Japan. This follow through suggests that equities are finding potent support, given perceptions that the Fed volition non hike in addition to other cardinal banks are opened upwardly to farther QE. My models are neutral to rattling modestly bearish; no potent signals. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 total of 340 SPX stocks registered fresh five-day highs versus lows yesterday. I need to view show of weakness earlier entertaining trades to the downside. Until then, my leaning remains to purchase weakness that holds higher upwardly overnight lows.
* We're short-term overbought, amongst almost 90% of SPX stocks higher upwardly their three- in addition to five-day moving averages. Note inward the nautical chart below, however, that my intermediate-term stair out has moved off its lows in addition to is non yet extended to the upside. If nosotros tin function off the short-term overbought province of affairs to a greater extent than inward fourth dimension than price, I'd aspect farther upside.
* An interesting momentum stair out takes the departure betwixt five-day novel highs vs. lows amidst SPX stocks in addition to compares that to the publish of 20-day novel highs vs. lows. When the five-day highs/lows receive got exceeded the 20-day figure past times to a greater extent than than 300 (N = 17 since 2010), the adjacent iii days inward SPX receive got been 12 up, 5 downwards for an average gain of +.48%. This blueprint tends to grab short-term thrusts off relatively oversold conditions, which is what nosotros receive got presently.
Tuesday, September 8th
* A key to successful trading is too a key to living a successful life: diversification. Trading many markets amongst an edge; trading many setups amongst edges; engaging inward many positive life pursuits--all of these polish out the personal every bit good every bit fiscal returns nosotros generate inward life. Ironically, we're best positioned to accept life's large bets when nosotros receive got a host of smaller bets sustaining us.
* We're trading smartly higher inward premarket trade, continuing a arrive at merchandise off the recent sell off lows. My novel models, which focus on medium volatility markets, are modestly bullish. My game innovation for the solar daytime is buying weakness that holds higher upwardly overnight lows; longer-term I thin toward a resolution of the arrive at merchandise to the downside, testing those selloff lows a dyad weeks back. I won't hold upwardly taking whatever curt trades, however, unless the models indicate that way.
* The novel models reverberate the short-term hateful reversion patterns that are mutual inward higher volatility markets. Patience inward buying dips in addition to selling bounces should hold upwardly rewarded on average. I am carefully watching the percentages of stocks trading higher upwardly their short-term moving averages, every bit good every bit the percentages of stocks giving purchase vs. sell signals on traditional technical indicators. The erstwhile information tin hold upwardly constitute at the Index Indicators site; the latter is tracked via the Stock Charts site.
* My pure volatility stair out continues quite elevated, suggesting that nosotros are inward a dissimilar authorities from the 1 that prevailed for much of 2015 in addition to that volatility should proceed inward the nigh term. I proceed to spotter commodities every bit indications of global economical weakness, especially inward EM.
* We're starting to view roughly expansion inward the publish of stocks registering fresh lows, amongst 213 novel monthly highs in addition to 305 novel monthly lows across all exchanges. The novel highs is the lowest figure inward the past times iii sessions; the novel lows is the highest figure inward the terminal iii sessions. I volition hold upwardly monitoring this closely, every bit it is consistent amongst a marketplace seat that is topping in addition to could exam recent cost lows.
* I'm too watching unsmooth crude oil in addition to copper for indications of weakness, every bit those receive got been amidst commodities reflecting weakness inward emerging markets.
* I receive got 1 model that is modestly bearish in addition to 1 that is neutral; both aspect 3-5 days out. We've seen roughly selling inward rate-sensitive stocks; banker's complaint the recent weakness inward TLT (rise inward rates). I volition hold upwardly watching rates closely every bit nosotros approach the Fed meeting; given the odd grade of speculation almost what the Fed volition do, in that location could hold upwardly quite a fighting of volatility associated amongst that meeting.
Thursday, September 10th
* Yesterday was a slap-up illustration of an occasion inward which cognitive flexibility is essential to trading. Of course, one of the of import ways nosotros tin rest cognitively flexible is past times having many ideas or patterns that we're looking at, hence that nosotros tin speedily arrange to marketplace seat conditions. I had mixed indications going into the day's trade, amongst models neutral to slightly bearish in addition to roughly indication of possible upside momentum over a several solar daytime period, per yesterday's post. Once nosotros opened, however, book flows were decidedly negative in addition to stayed that agency for much of the session. Because book stream is a volume-weighted stair out of upticks versus downticks for every stock, it captures the leaning of large traders to aggressively purchase or sell shares. Below is yesterday's nautical chart for book stream at 5-minute information points. Monitoring cumulative NYSE TICK is too rattling helpful inward this regard.
* One matter nosotros saw yesterday in addition to in 1 lawsuit to a greater extent than today's overnight marketplace seat is that flows tin shift greatly from 1 fourth dimension zone to another. I create non view high consistency of cost activity across Asian, European, in addition to the U.S.A. hours. That has existent implications for short-term traders. We had a bounce inward stocks inward Asian hours today in addition to late sold dorsum inward the the U.S.A. premarket. Assuming trending behaviour tin hold upwardly hazardous to our wealth.
* My models are mixed, 1 modestly bullish, 1 modestly bearish. Not a potent signal, hence I'm happy to allow the record verbalize for itself. I volition hold upwardly watching to view if nosotros tin rest higher upwardly yesterday's lows on whatever early on weakness inward today's trading. I'm too watching commodity markets per recent posts.
Wednesday, September 9th
* Buying weakness per yesterday's post service turned out to hold upwardly a winning strategy--much to a greater extent than than I anticipated, every bit stocks receive got rallied difficult on the heels of forcefulness inward Japan. This follow through suggests that equities are finding potent support, given perceptions that the Fed volition non hike in addition to other cardinal banks are opened upwardly to farther QE. My models are neutral to rattling modestly bearish; no potent signals. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 total of 340 SPX stocks registered fresh five-day highs versus lows yesterday. I need to view show of weakness earlier entertaining trades to the downside. Until then, my leaning remains to purchase weakness that holds higher upwardly overnight lows.
* We're short-term overbought, amongst almost 90% of SPX stocks higher upwardly their three- in addition to five-day moving averages. Note inward the nautical chart below, however, that my intermediate-term stair out has moved off its lows in addition to is non yet extended to the upside. If nosotros tin function off the short-term overbought province of affairs to a greater extent than inward fourth dimension than price, I'd aspect farther upside.
* An interesting momentum stair out takes the departure betwixt five-day novel highs vs. lows amidst SPX stocks in addition to compares that to the publish of 20-day novel highs vs. lows. When the five-day highs/lows receive got exceeded the 20-day figure past times to a greater extent than than 300 (N = 17 since 2010), the adjacent iii days inward SPX receive got been 12 up, 5 downwards for an average gain of +.48%. This blueprint tends to grab short-term thrusts off relatively oversold conditions, which is what nosotros receive got presently.
Tuesday, September 8th
* A key to successful trading is too a key to living a successful life: diversification. Trading many markets amongst an edge; trading many setups amongst edges; engaging inward many positive life pursuits--all of these polish out the personal every bit good every bit fiscal returns nosotros generate inward life. Ironically, we're best positioned to accept life's large bets when nosotros receive got a host of smaller bets sustaining us.
* We're trading smartly higher inward premarket trade, continuing a arrive at merchandise off the recent sell off lows. My novel models, which focus on medium volatility markets, are modestly bullish. My game innovation for the solar daytime is buying weakness that holds higher upwardly overnight lows; longer-term I thin toward a resolution of the arrive at merchandise to the downside, testing those selloff lows a dyad weeks back. I won't hold upwardly taking whatever curt trades, however, unless the models indicate that way.
* The novel models reverberate the short-term hateful reversion patterns that are mutual inward higher volatility markets. Patience inward buying dips in addition to selling bounces should hold upwardly rewarded on average. I am carefully watching the percentages of stocks trading higher upwardly their short-term moving averages, every bit good every bit the percentages of stocks giving purchase vs. sell signals on traditional technical indicators. The erstwhile information tin hold upwardly constitute at the Index Indicators site; the latter is tracked via the Stock Charts site.
* My pure volatility stair out continues quite elevated, suggesting that nosotros are inward a dissimilar authorities from the 1 that prevailed for much of 2015 in addition to that volatility should proceed inward the nigh term. I proceed to spotter commodities every bit indications of global economical weakness, especially inward EM.
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