Friday, Oct 2nd
* I'll last presenting at two trading conferences inwards October; both lead hold unusually rigid programs together with are worth taking a expression at.
* The weak payrolls position out has led to a premarket selloff later nosotros dipped together with bounced dorsum yesterday. As noted yesterday, all of this is consistent amongst a marketplace that is inwards a bottoming process. My intermediate-term measures are significantly oversold; my models are neutral. I am watching carefully to come across if nosotros tin sack remain higher upward yesterday's lows. If so, nosotros could come across an first-class intermediate-term buying chance follow from that.
Thursday, Oct 1st
* How nosotros educate ourselves through adversity; produce losses defeat us, or assistance us grow? Very of import topic.
* Yesterday's entry mentioned skilful odds for a bounce together with nosotros sustained early on forcefulness into the twenty-four hr menstruation session together with hence overnight. Two perspectives gain me every bit of import here: 1) During the corrections of 2010 together with 2011--ones that were non outright extended deport markets--bottoming took house over multiple months. Further tests of the downside are non out of the question; 2) The intermediate-term oversold measures referenced yesterday are nowhere close beingness worked off. I expression those to last worked off inwards fourth dimension together with price, amongst express upside if nosotros are indeed to come across to a greater extent than bottoming together with to a greater extent than upside momentum if we've genuinely completed a exam of August lows.
Wednesday, September 30th
* Overnight activity inwards the stock index futures has given us the bounce referenced inwards yesterday's postal service later a twenty-four hr menstruation of in i trial to a greater extent than testing lows together with asset inwards the 1860 area. We hold to last short-term oversold together with my swing models are moderately bullish.
* We hold at oversold levels on an intermediate term terra firma that lead hold led to positive swing returns, every bit the nautical chart below indicates. This stair out takes the position out of SPX stocks registering fresh 5, 20, together with 100-day highs minus lows together with calculates a five-day moving average. (Raw information from Index Indicators). When this forcefulness stair out has been inwards its bottom quartile (lows outnumbering highs), the side past times side 3 days inwards SPX lead hold averaged a gain of +.57% going dorsum to 2010. All other occasions since 2010 lead hold averaged a loss of -.02%.
Tuesday, September 29th
* Yesterday's marketplace was a textbook tendency twenty-four hr menstruation to the downside. It's rattling worthwhile studying the characteristics of tendency days, hence that they tin sack last identified every bit early on inwards the session every bit possible. I uncovering the distribution of NYSE TICK readings to last peculiarly helpful inwards that regard.
* I had mentioned final calendar week that my intermediate-term indicators were relatively overbought. With yesterday's wide decline, nosotros uncovering ourselves at much to a greater extent than oversold levels, nearing the August lows. Interestingly, nosotros had 1212 stocks across all exchanges brand fresh three-month lows yesterday. On August 24th, that position out was 2906. Per before marketplace notes, I am opened upward to the sentiment that nosotros are testing those August lows together with that nosotros volition ultimately succeed inwards that test. Note, however, than past times higher volatility corrections inwards May, 2010 together with August, 2011 took multiple months to uncovering an ultimate bottom.
* We're seeing elevated index together with private stock put/call ratios, also supporting the sentiment of a bounce here. Fewer than 10% of SPX stocks are trading higher upward their 3 together with ten-day moving averages, a grade that inwards the past times has tended to yield bounces over a side past times side five-day basis. My models are moderately bullish over the side past times side 3 to v twenty-four hr menstruation horizon.
* Thanks to readers for the many positive comments most the recent trading conference together with the lessons learned.
* I'll last presenting at two trading conferences inwards October; both lead hold unusually rigid programs together with are worth taking a expression at.
* The weak payrolls position out has led to a premarket selloff later nosotros dipped together with bounced dorsum yesterday. As noted yesterday, all of this is consistent amongst a marketplace that is inwards a bottoming process. My intermediate-term measures are significantly oversold; my models are neutral. I am watching carefully to come across if nosotros tin sack remain higher upward yesterday's lows. If so, nosotros could come across an first-class intermediate-term buying chance follow from that.
Thursday, Oct 1st
* How nosotros educate ourselves through adversity; produce losses defeat us, or assistance us grow? Very of import topic.
* Yesterday's entry mentioned skilful odds for a bounce together with nosotros sustained early on forcefulness into the twenty-four hr menstruation session together with hence overnight. Two perspectives gain me every bit of import here: 1) During the corrections of 2010 together with 2011--ones that were non outright extended deport markets--bottoming took house over multiple months. Further tests of the downside are non out of the question; 2) The intermediate-term oversold measures referenced yesterday are nowhere close beingness worked off. I expression those to last worked off inwards fourth dimension together with price, amongst express upside if nosotros are indeed to come across to a greater extent than bottoming together with to a greater extent than upside momentum if we've genuinely completed a exam of August lows.
Wednesday, September 30th
* Overnight activity inwards the stock index futures has given us the bounce referenced inwards yesterday's postal service later a twenty-four hr menstruation of in i trial to a greater extent than testing lows together with asset inwards the 1860 area. We hold to last short-term oversold together with my swing models are moderately bullish.
* We hold at oversold levels on an intermediate term terra firma that lead hold led to positive swing returns, every bit the nautical chart below indicates. This stair out takes the position out of SPX stocks registering fresh 5, 20, together with 100-day highs minus lows together with calculates a five-day moving average. (Raw information from Index Indicators). When this forcefulness stair out has been inwards its bottom quartile (lows outnumbering highs), the side past times side 3 days inwards SPX lead hold averaged a gain of +.57% going dorsum to 2010. All other occasions since 2010 lead hold averaged a loss of -.02%.
Tuesday, September 29th
* Yesterday's marketplace was a textbook tendency twenty-four hr menstruation to the downside. It's rattling worthwhile studying the characteristics of tendency days, hence that they tin sack last identified every bit early on inwards the session every bit possible. I uncovering the distribution of NYSE TICK readings to last peculiarly helpful inwards that regard.
* I had mentioned final calendar week that my intermediate-term indicators were relatively overbought. With yesterday's wide decline, nosotros uncovering ourselves at much to a greater extent than oversold levels, nearing the August lows. Interestingly, nosotros had 1212 stocks across all exchanges brand fresh three-month lows yesterday. On August 24th, that position out was 2906. Per before marketplace notes, I am opened upward to the sentiment that nosotros are testing those August lows together with that nosotros volition ultimately succeed inwards that test. Note, however, than past times higher volatility corrections inwards May, 2010 together with August, 2011 took multiple months to uncovering an ultimate bottom.
* We're seeing elevated index together with private stock put/call ratios, also supporting the sentiment of a bounce here. Fewer than 10% of SPX stocks are trading higher upward their 3 together with ten-day moving averages, a grade that inwards the past times has tended to yield bounces over a side past times side five-day basis. My models are moderately bullish over the side past times side 3 to v twenty-four hr menstruation horizon.
* Thanks to readers for the many positive comments most the recent trading conference together with the lessons learned.
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