Friday, Jan 15th
* Thursday's rally was short-lived, together with that has been the outstanding characteristic of the recent downturn inwards the stock market. As noted inwards the prior posting (below), nosotros accept stayed oversold for far longer than has been typical of corrections inwards 2014 together with 2015. The weakness inwards stone oil continued overnight together with we've broken to novel lows for the displace next the information release this morning. Selling bounces that scroll over at lower toll highs continues to live on the winning strategy.
* The nautical chart below of ane of my main bike measures is worth a M words. Quite simply, this is a dissimilar bike from those of the past times 2 years together with suggests to me that we've entered a dissimilar regime. Using patterns from the recent past times to extrapolate into the near-term time to come is hazardous to our wealth.
Wednesday, Jan 13th
* Tuesday was the commencement twenty-four hours inwards which nosotros saw the position out of stocks making fresh novel lows reject twenty-four hours over day. To this point, it has been quite a wide decline, amongst fewer than 10% of SPX stocks trading inwards a higher house their 50-day moving averages together with exclusively nigh a quarter of the stocks trading inwards a higher house their 200-day moving averages. Indeed, yesterday was the commencement twenty-four hours inwards nearly 2 weeks inwards which we've seen to a greater extent than than one-half of stocks closing inwards a higher house their 3-day moving averages. That is unusually consistent weakness together with is but ane of the things leading me to believe that this is to a greater extent than than a mere correction inwards a bull market.
* Below is a breadth mensurate I hold for SPX stocks, capturing the percentages closing inwards a higher house short-term moving averages (data from Index Indicators). We tin dismiss encounter that nosotros accept stayed oversold far longer than is park inwards a normal correction.
* Yet approximately other await at marketplace weakness is a running full of purchase vs. sell signals for all NYSE stocks across diverse technical measures, such every bit Bollinger Bands (data from Stock Charts). The character of the bounce nosotros tin dismiss muster from these oversold levels volition nation us a lot nigh whether this is business office of a multi-year gain or a commencement leg inwards a larger comport marketplace move. My bike measures are at lower levels than nosotros accept seen during recent corrective moves, which ane time once to a greater extent than opens my thinking to the possibility that nosotros are inwards a dissimilar regime, non the rangy corrective agency of much of 2014 together with 2015.
Monday, Jan 11th
* What is the undercover behind the unloose energy degree of extraordinary performers? This article tackles this most of import topic. Success is non nigh controlling your emotions, but rather channeling them toward ever-greater achievement.
* Late weakness inwards States stock index futures on Fri spilled over to early on overnight trading earlier a reversal inwards European hours. We are straightaway quite oversold, amongst fewer than 10% of SPX shares trading inwards a higher house their 3, 5, 10, 20, together with 50-day moving averages. (Data from Index Indicators). Interestingly, where this wide weakness has occurred for the commencement fourth dimension inwards a calendar month (7 occasions since 2006), the marketplace posted a lower daily unopen inwards all 7 occasions inside a five-day period. Five of the occasions, however, posted a higher daily unopen inside 2 trading sessions, amongst iv of the 5 exceeding 1.5%. Bottom draw of piece of employment is that I'm prepared for two-way activity together with for volatility, amongst VIX closing Fri inwards a higher house 27.
* One of my favorite overbought/oversold measures is inwards oversold territory, but banking concern complaint that the lows at October, 2014 together with August, 2015 occurred at fifty-fifty to a greater extent than oversold levels. Just because we're oversold doesn't necessarily hateful we're at a bottom. I prefer to remain open-minded.
* Back to those 7 occasions inwards which nosotros saw fewer than 10% of SPX stocks trading inwards a higher house their 3, 5, 10, 20, together with 50-day moving averages. The dates inwards which those occurred included September together with November, 2008; May together with June, 2010; together with August, 2011. In all those occasions, nosotros saw bounces but farther toll lows over coming months. H5N1 major telephone phone traders ask to brand hither is whether we're currently seeing a correction inwards a bull marketplace or the unfolding of a bear. I'm opened upward to the latter together with volition live on watching closely for the character of bounces from here.
.
* Thursday's rally was short-lived, together with that has been the outstanding characteristic of the recent downturn inwards the stock market. As noted inwards the prior posting (below), nosotros accept stayed oversold for far longer than has been typical of corrections inwards 2014 together with 2015. The weakness inwards stone oil continued overnight together with we've broken to novel lows for the displace next the information release this morning. Selling bounces that scroll over at lower toll highs continues to live on the winning strategy.
* The nautical chart below of ane of my main bike measures is worth a M words. Quite simply, this is a dissimilar bike from those of the past times 2 years together with suggests to me that we've entered a dissimilar regime. Using patterns from the recent past times to extrapolate into the near-term time to come is hazardous to our wealth.
Wednesday, Jan 13th
* Tuesday was the commencement twenty-four hours inwards which nosotros saw the position out of stocks making fresh novel lows reject twenty-four hours over day. To this point, it has been quite a wide decline, amongst fewer than 10% of SPX stocks trading inwards a higher house their 50-day moving averages together with exclusively nigh a quarter of the stocks trading inwards a higher house their 200-day moving averages. Indeed, yesterday was the commencement twenty-four hours inwards nearly 2 weeks inwards which we've seen to a greater extent than than one-half of stocks closing inwards a higher house their 3-day moving averages. That is unusually consistent weakness together with is but ane of the things leading me to believe that this is to a greater extent than than a mere correction inwards a bull market.
* Below is a breadth mensurate I hold for SPX stocks, capturing the percentages closing inwards a higher house short-term moving averages (data from Index Indicators). We tin dismiss encounter that nosotros accept stayed oversold far longer than is park inwards a normal correction.
* Yet approximately other await at marketplace weakness is a running full of purchase vs. sell signals for all NYSE stocks across diverse technical measures, such every bit Bollinger Bands (data from Stock Charts). The character of the bounce nosotros tin dismiss muster from these oversold levels volition nation us a lot nigh whether this is business office of a multi-year gain or a commencement leg inwards a larger comport marketplace move. My bike measures are at lower levels than nosotros accept seen during recent corrective moves, which ane time once to a greater extent than opens my thinking to the possibility that nosotros are inwards a dissimilar regime, non the rangy corrective agency of much of 2014 together with 2015.
Monday, Jan 11th
* What is the undercover behind the unloose energy degree of extraordinary performers? This article tackles this most of import topic. Success is non nigh controlling your emotions, but rather channeling them toward ever-greater achievement.
* Late weakness inwards States stock index futures on Fri spilled over to early on overnight trading earlier a reversal inwards European hours. We are straightaway quite oversold, amongst fewer than 10% of SPX shares trading inwards a higher house their 3, 5, 10, 20, together with 50-day moving averages. (Data from Index Indicators). Interestingly, where this wide weakness has occurred for the commencement fourth dimension inwards a calendar month (7 occasions since 2006), the marketplace posted a lower daily unopen inwards all 7 occasions inside a five-day period. Five of the occasions, however, posted a higher daily unopen inside 2 trading sessions, amongst iv of the 5 exceeding 1.5%. Bottom draw of piece of employment is that I'm prepared for two-way activity together with for volatility, amongst VIX closing Fri inwards a higher house 27.
* One of my favorite overbought/oversold measures is inwards oversold territory, but banking concern complaint that the lows at October, 2014 together with August, 2015 occurred at fifty-fifty to a greater extent than oversold levels. Just because we're oversold doesn't necessarily hateful we're at a bottom. I prefer to remain open-minded.
* Back to those 7 occasions inwards which nosotros saw fewer than 10% of SPX stocks trading inwards a higher house their 3, 5, 10, 20, together with 50-day moving averages. The dates inwards which those occurred included September together with November, 2008; May together with June, 2010; together with August, 2011. In all those occasions, nosotros saw bounces but farther toll lows over coming months. H5N1 major telephone phone traders ask to brand hither is whether we're currently seeing a correction inwards a bull marketplace or the unfolding of a bear. I'm opened upward to the latter together with volition live on watching closely for the character of bounces from here.
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