Wednesday, Dec 23rd
* After seeing breadth weakness dry out upwards per the finally post, nosotros finally saw buying come upwards into the marketplace seat yesterday afternoon, amongst around relief inwards petroleum too credit markets. While this is non looking similar a vigorous rally thence far, it has continued into overnight merchandise too is non yet running into pregnant intermediate-term overbought conditions.
* I cause got an experimental mensurate that takes a expression at the human relationship betwixt expected VIX too actual VIX, based upon factors such every bit realized volatility too volume. I'll last writing to a greater extent than nearly that mensurate inwards an upcoming post. It has entered a arrive at that has seen negative average returns over a two-week horizon.
* Here's around other unique mensurate that I've flora helpful. It takes a moving average of purchase signals vs. sell signals for several technical trading systems across all listed NYSE stocks. It's been a expert overbought/oversold measure. Interestingly, essentially all forrad returns inwards stocks over a two-week horizon cause got either come upwards from momentum (when this mensurate is quite strong) or from hateful reversion (when the mensurate is quite weak). In other words, when nosotros larn really rigid readings, it's non odd to cause got short-term follow through to the upside. When nosotros larn really weak readings, it's non odd to larn a bounce over the side yesteryear side 2 weeks. We are coming off a really weak reading.
Tuesday, Dec 22nd
* Here's what I flora when I studied the most successful traders I've worked with--and here's what it could hateful for your trading functioning inwards the coming year.
* We've had a few recent bouts of selloff inwards the stock indexes. Interestingly, novel monthly lows across all stocks peaked on Dec 14th at 2025. On Fri nosotros unopen lower inwards SPY but at that topographic point were solely 1131 novel lows. Yesterday, novel lows peaked at 867. My intermediate term indicators plough over off inwards oversold territory. With continuing weakness inwards petroleum too high yield markets, rallies cause got been fleeting. Breadth measures, however, are non weakening. With a belatedly rally yesterday, it's the bulls' plough to demonstrate what they tin muster. It is hard for me to envision a solid rally without pull inwards oil, weakness inwards the dollar, too firmness inwards those high yield bond markets. I plough over off to picket those markets closely.
* Here's a nautical chart y'all won't run across elsewhere: It's a cumulative running full of purchase signals minus sell signals for the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) across all NYSE stocks. Note the steady deterioration inwards cyberspace pull for most of 2015, which has accelerated recently. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 similar moving-picture demonstrate tin last flora when tracking cumulative purchase vs. sell signals for other technical systems. Quite simply, to a greater extent than stocks are demonstrating pregnant weakness than pregnant strength.
* After seeing breadth weakness dry out upwards per the finally post, nosotros finally saw buying come upwards into the marketplace seat yesterday afternoon, amongst around relief inwards petroleum too credit markets. While this is non looking similar a vigorous rally thence far, it has continued into overnight merchandise too is non yet running into pregnant intermediate-term overbought conditions.
* I cause got an experimental mensurate that takes a expression at the human relationship betwixt expected VIX too actual VIX, based upon factors such every bit realized volatility too volume. I'll last writing to a greater extent than nearly that mensurate inwards an upcoming post. It has entered a arrive at that has seen negative average returns over a two-week horizon.
* Here's around other unique mensurate that I've flora helpful. It takes a moving average of purchase signals vs. sell signals for several technical trading systems across all listed NYSE stocks. It's been a expert overbought/oversold measure. Interestingly, essentially all forrad returns inwards stocks over a two-week horizon cause got either come upwards from momentum (when this mensurate is quite strong) or from hateful reversion (when the mensurate is quite weak). In other words, when nosotros larn really rigid readings, it's non odd to cause got short-term follow through to the upside. When nosotros larn really weak readings, it's non odd to larn a bounce over the side yesteryear side 2 weeks. We are coming off a really weak reading.
Tuesday, Dec 22nd
* Here's what I flora when I studied the most successful traders I've worked with--and here's what it could hateful for your trading functioning inwards the coming year.
* We've had a few recent bouts of selloff inwards the stock indexes. Interestingly, novel monthly lows across all stocks peaked on Dec 14th at 2025. On Fri nosotros unopen lower inwards SPY but at that topographic point were solely 1131 novel lows. Yesterday, novel lows peaked at 867. My intermediate term indicators plough over off inwards oversold territory. With continuing weakness inwards petroleum too high yield markets, rallies cause got been fleeting. Breadth measures, however, are non weakening. With a belatedly rally yesterday, it's the bulls' plough to demonstrate what they tin muster. It is hard for me to envision a solid rally without pull inwards oil, weakness inwards the dollar, too firmness inwards those high yield bond markets. I plough over off to picket those markets closely.
* Here's a nautical chart y'all won't run across elsewhere: It's a cumulative running full of purchase signals minus sell signals for the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) across all NYSE stocks. Note the steady deterioration inwards cyberspace pull for most of 2015, which has accelerated recently. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 similar moving-picture demonstrate tin last flora when tracking cumulative purchase vs. sell signals for other technical systems. Quite simply, to a greater extent than stocks are demonstrating pregnant weakness than pregnant strength.
No comments:
Post a Comment