Info!! How Relative Book Helps Us Merchandise Too Fade Marketplace Movement

This is the 6th post service inward the serial looking at indicators that I accept flora useful inward tracking the market's short-term behavior.  Previous posts inward the serial are linked below.  In this post, nosotros expect at a mensurate I telephone yell upward relative volume.  In the nautical chart above, relative book (red line) is plotted against SPY for Friday, 12/30/16.

Relative book is genuinely a ratio of electrical flow one-minute book to the average book for that minute.  Thus, for instance, if the electrical flow book at 9:39 AM is 200,000 shares too 9:39 AM book averages 100,000 shares, the relative book is 2.0.  When nosotros stance book inward this manner, nosotros tin apace run into if marketplace moves are supported past times important participation.

Notice how relative book started the twenty-four hours good elevated too stayed elevated for almost the session.  This is truthful for many tendency days:  it is the additional participation of directional players that sustains the marketplace move.  The trader watching relative book early on inward the twenty-four hours had an first-class say that this was abnormally high participation--and it was skewed to the downside.

Conversely, days inward which relative book persistently stays below 1.0 are ones inward which moves cannot attract meaningful participation.  This leads to frequent reversals of those moves inward a make environment.  Very often, we'll run into relative book tail off equally marketplace moves mature, equally novel high or depression prices neglect to attract added participation.  This oft precedes reversals, equally nosotros saw during the 10 AM hr of trading above.

When cost breaks out of a make on sustained elevated relative volume, nosotros accept a corking indication that the novel prices are attracting fresh participation, which makes the breakout less probable to endure a fakeout.  

The fundamental to agreement relative book is that, when nosotros run into elevated participation inward the market, that elevation typically comes from directional participants.  If we're going to larn a momentum/trend move, nosotros postulate the players to sustain the higher or lower prices.  The waxing too waning of relative book tells us where the market's auction is attracting activeness too where it is shutting it off--an essential distinction for short-term traders.

Previous Posts inward the Series:

*  Tracking Instantaneous Demand too Supply

*  Tracking Multiday Market Strength too Weakness

*   Tracking Market Breadth too Strength/Weakness

*  A Unique Application of VWAP to Gauge Market Strength

*  Tracking Market Strength With Intraday New Highs too Lows
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Info!! Around Night Clouds On The Stock Marketplace Horizon

It's been a dandy operate inwards stocks from the mid-October lows, fueled past times significant buying pressure level coming out of those lows.  By mid-November, my measures were showing diminished upside momentum, but not the sort of weakness that would unremarkably atomic number 82 to meaningful intermediate-term corrections.  By the halt of November, pockets of outright weakness became evident inwards the market, amongst smaller cap issues as well as commodities-related stocks showing detail weakness.  This led to a recent province of affairs inwards which stocks making fresh three-month lows genuinely outnumbered those making novel highs, despite SPX hovering nigh its all-time highs.  Not entirely conduct hold nosotros been seeing signs of weakness inside the U.S. stock market; globally stocks conduct hold non kept upward amongst SPX.

Recall that I rails the number of upticks as well as downticks across all stocks inwards the NYSE universe.  That buying as well as selling pressure level stair out has been quite useful inwards tracking trace as well as weakness during the evolution of intermediate-term cycles.  What nosotros run into inwards the overstep nautical chart is that the buying-selling residue has been below cypher for a number of recent sessions, a designing nosotros conduct hold seen during the topping phases of marketplace cycles.  In itself, that exactly indicates a waning of wide buying involvement as well as approximately alternative upward of selling, though non to the storey nosotros saw prior to the early on Oct drop.

Truly outstanding has been the plunge inwards my stair out of correlation amid stocks, which looks across both capitalization levels as well as sectors.  Indeed, this is the lowest correlation storey I conduct hold seen since tracking the stair out since 2004.  Correlation tends to ascent during marketplace declines as well as and hence remains relatively high during bounces from marketplace lows.  As cycles crest, nosotros run into weak sectors pare off piece stronger ones hold to fresh highs.  As those divergences evolve, correlations dip.  Right similar a shot we're seeing massive divergences, cheers to relative weakness amid raw materials shares (XLB), loose energy stocks (XLE), regional banks (KRE), as well as pocket-size (IJR) as well as midcap (MDY) stocks.  Why is this important?  Going dorsum to 2004, a unproblematic median divide of 20-day correlations finds that, later depression correlation periods, the average side past times side 20-day modify inwards SPX has been -.33%.  After high correlation periods, the average side past times side 20-day modify inwards SPX has been +1.43%.  

A real interesting see stair out that I rails is the amount of upper-case missive of the alphabet flowing into as well as out of diverse ETFs.  The number of shares outstanding inwards an actively traded ETF changes daily, reflecting underlying buyer as well as seller interest.  Trim Tabs follows these ETF flows and notes that nosotros are at extremes that were seen prior to the 2008 marketplace meltdown.  My ain figures for SPY uncovering that shares outstanding late conduct hold striking double digit increases over the past times 20-day period.  That reflects bullish see inwards the overstep 90% of all values I conduct hold tracked since 2006.  Going dorsum to 2006, when see has been inwards the overstep bullish quartile, side past times side 20-day returns conduct hold averaged a loss of -.57%.  When see has been inwards the bottom, most bearish quartile, side past times side 20-day returns conduct hold averaged a make of +1.57%.

I lay all that together as well as uncovering it hard to run into practiced upside risk/reward from this point.  When I saw lack of trace plough into outright weakness inwards mid-September, my bullish chips came off the table.  Now I uncovering myself inwards a similar mode.  Could ECB or the Fed come upward to the market's rescue as well as inject fresh catalytic trace into stocks?  Absolutely.  Could investors pour coin into stocks as well as chase piece of cake Dec seasonal strength?  Of course.  I am confident those developments volition present upward apace inwards my buying/selling trace measures as well as I volition study them duly.  Right here, right now, however, I run into global signs of disinflation as well as economical weakness; a Fed that has been talking almost exiting QE; depression equity put/call ratios; as well as persistent relative weakness inwards high yield bonds (HYG).  It volition conduct hold a fresh catalyst--and fresh prove of buying interest--to decease my chips dorsum on the bull's table.
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Info!! 3 Views Of The Breadth Of Stock Marketplace Set Strength

Here are updated charts for what nosotros mightiness telephone phone the breadth of marketplace position forcefulness in addition to weakness.  (Raw information from the first-class Stock Charts site.)  Any private stock tin give a purchase or sell dot according to rules from a technical trading system.  The scope off nautical chart reflects Wilder's Parabolic Stop-and-Reverse (SAR) system; the middle nautical chart tracks a organization based on Bollinger Bands; in addition to the bottom nautical chart follows a organization derived from Lambert's Commodity Channel Index.  The charts reverberate the residuum betwixt purchase signals in addition to sell signals for all NYSE stocks on a daily basis.  They hence capture the breadth of forcefulness in addition to weakness for the full general market.

As a whole, the signals tend to scope off out ahead of toll during intermediate-term marketplace position cycles in addition to bottom presently ahead of price.  Of the 3 systems, the SAR tends to hold out the fastest moving (greatest Pb times); the CCI the slowest.  When all are inwards sync, turning lower or turning higher, nosotros mostly uncovering ourselves inwards the relatively early on stage of a trending move.  I uncovering the interplay alongside the signals to hold out helpful inwards identifying where we're at inwards those intermediate-term cycles. 

Note that SAR has late turned negative, despite the recent toll strength.  The Bollinger Band mensurate is coming off a high reading only remains positive.  The CCI organization late gave a high reading, which has preceded the some recent marketplace position strength.  It has fallen off that high only remains neutral.  As a whole, the signals are showing reduced breadth of marketplace position strength, only non cyberspace weakness--consistent with the waning breadth readings noted inwards yesterday's post.    

Further Reading:  Tracking the Breadth of Market Strength
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Info!! Trading Notes For The Calendar Week Of March 14, 2016

Friday, March 18th

*  Steve Spencer of SMB emphasizes that cost activity next a catalytic lawsuit provides us amongst of import information.  This is especially truthful when nosotros run across a modify inwards the distribution of transactions next a word lawsuit or other catalyst.  Increased book together with a novel skew of book lifting offers versus hitting bids, for example, tells us that fresh buying flows receive got come upwards into the market.  This calls for an updating of our views of the stock or index.

*  This lesson has been especially relevant inwards the wake of the Fed announcement.  My cumulative stair out of upticks vs. downticks has hitting novel highs for this displace together with breadth, which had been waning, vaulted to novel highs.  Below nosotros tin run across the nautical chart of stocks across all changes making fresh 3-month novel highs vs. lows.  The vigor of buying next the Fed annunciation suggests that this, indeed, was a game changer.  Central banks globally are opting for accommodation and, historically, that has been favorable toward stocks.

*  The China/deflation thesis, which dominated give-and-take during recent marketplace weakness, is far less discussed I find, given stone oil clit together with USD weakness.  For stocks, inwards a negative involvement charge per unit of measurement world, anything rubber amongst yield continues to discovery interest.

Thursday, March 17th

*  Interesting commentary on the fright of missing marketplace moves from Victor Niederhoffer.  Many a bad merchandise is made because of the ego, non because of the objective marketplace opportunity.

*  We saw a ascent to novel highs on the heels of the Fed announcement, amongst enterprise buying interest.  Recent posts receive got commented on weak breadth and, for the marketplace overall, the breadth movie did non amend despite the Fed-related strength.  Across all exchanges, nosotros saw 753 novel monthly highs against 254 lows.  The latter is in 1 lawsuit again an uptick inwards novel lows together with the novel highs are one-half of what nosotros saw 2 weeks ago.  Among SPX shares only, stocks making fresh 100-day novel highs versus lows did expand to a marginal novel peak.  Much of the weakness is amid small-scale cap shares, though fiscal together with wellness aid stocks inside SPX are likewise lagging.  With the mixed breadth picture, I'm non surprised to run across some retracement of yesterday's gains inwards premarket merchandise today.

*  Breadth issues notwithstanding, it's clear that this has been a vigorous bull displace from the Feb lows.  Note below how we've stayed "overbought" on my multiperiod clit stair out (daily tracking of SPX stocks making 5, 20, together with 100-day novel highs versus lows) for a number of days.  This exclusively occurs inwards trending markets.  While the breadth issues oft precede correction, my base of operations illustration is to sentiment such a correction equally a buying opportunity.  

 

*  I'm working on creating a cycle-based stair out of short-term momentum together with value effects inwards the ES market.  The thought is to seat when markets are most probable to proceed versus opposite their most recent directional movement.  Interestingly, the market's ascent yesterday occurred on a depression value of the momentum measure.  More to come upwards on this research.

Wednesday, March 16th

*  Jim Dalton, who has pioneered trading via Market Profile, is offering his in conclusion mentorship computer programme earlier his retirement.  I likewise run across Terry Liberman will live doing a webinar amongst Jim afterwards today.  When I taught an internship computer programme inwards Chicago many years ago, Jim's piece of occupation was the exclusively mandated reading.  I proceed to discovery Market Profile helpful equally a conceptual framework for thinking nearly marketplace behavior.

*  After some early on weakness, nosotros saw buying inwards stocks, but small-scale caps proceed to notably underperform large caps.  As a result, nosotros run across continuing deterioration amid the breadth measures.  New monthly lows ticked upwards to 192, the highest degree since Feb 24th together with monthly highs dipped to 451.  Relatively weak sectors lately include unloose energy shares (XLE) together with healthcare (XLV).  Today's trading volition live dominated past times the afternoon's Fed announcement.  

*  We proceed quite stretched on my intermediate clit measure, which looks at the number of SPX shares making fresh 5, 20, together with 100-day highs versus lows.  (Data from Index Indicators).  If the Fed-related merchandise can't interruption us from the breadth deterioration, I await an intermediate-term correction.  That would non necessarily live an terminate to the bull displace from February's lows, but could advise a new, topping stage to the electrical current marketplace cycle.  During a topping stage nosotros tin run across higher overall prices for the index, but amongst deterioration inwards some sectors contributing to lagging breadth.  

   
*  Here is a unique intraday indicator that looks at buying clit per unit of measurement area amid all U.S. listed shares.  It tracks upticks amid all shares (data from e-Signal) together with expresses the final result inwards measure difference units.  This shows us when important buying is coming into the market.  It likewise shows us when at that topographic point is a meaningful absence of buying.  (A corresponding stair out tracks important selling together with absence of selling pressure).  It helps longer-term positions when those are going amongst the flows.  The nautical chart below shows yesterday's market.

Tuesday, March 15th

*  I'll live making an improver to these marketplace notes together with including each 24-hour interval links to readings that I discovery specially informative together with useful.  To boot this off, banking concern check out the Paststat blog for daily trading ideas based upon historical patterns, including this 1 based upon seasonality.  From my perspective, such patterns are the starting signal for analysis, non an terminate point.  Once nosotros run across a pattern, the difficult piece of occupation remains of deciding: 1) is the electrical current marketplace authorities typical of the menstruum covered past times the historical test; 2) is at that topographic point a audio argue for the beingness of the pattern, or mightiness the designing live a random occurrence; together with 3) what is the variability or together with thus the designing (could yous endure the exceptional instances)?  Factoring marketplace history into trading decisions is no guarantee of success--it's slow to aspect inwards together with thus many places that some "significant" designing appears--but ignorance of marketplace history is non just a promising alternative.

*  The relative absence of selling clit per unit of measurement area inwards Monday's session was noteworthy together with helped atomic number 82 to higher prices for much of the session earlier a belatedly selling burst.  Selling has continued overnight amongst no novel shot inwards the arm from the Bank of Japan.  Trading was unusually wearisome on Mon together with nosotros could larn to a greater extent than of the same ahead of tomorrow's Fed announcement.  Note how short-term breadth has been potent for a number of days; the stair out below tracks the percent of SPX stocks closing to a higher house their 3, 5, together with 10-day moving averages.  (Data from Index Indicators).

       
 *  The marketplace looks tired to me--for the origin fourth dimension since the liftoff from the Feb lows.  Specifically, we're getting fewer shares registering novel highs during marketplace rallies.  Much of that relative weakness is coming from small-scale cap shares.  Yesterday nosotros saw 921 stocks across all exchanges brand fresh monthly highs against over 2000 in conclusion week.  (Data from the Barchart site).  No private sector inside the SPX looks distinctively weak together with I'm non at all convinced that we're going into deport mode.  Rather, I await a normal correction inside a bull move.  With the absence of selling having problem bringing us higher, I'm leaning toward selling bounces that cannot maintain us to a higher house the overnight highs.  Of course, the upcoming Fed annunciation volition supply a major catalyst for stocks tomorrow.


Monday, March 14th

*  Those who know me good know that I create non subscribe to the thought that successful trading is by together with large a operate of psychology.  Without an objective trading edge, one's frame of bespeak heed volition but dictate the charge per unit of measurement at which nosotros portion amongst our capital.  Still, psychology is necessary, if non sufficient, for success together with yesterday's post service was mayhap my clearest explanation why.

*  We shut close the highs on Friday, continuing the upswing next the post-ECB selloff.  The ascent left us quite stretched short-term, amongst over 90% of SPX stocks trading to a higher house their 3, 5, 10, together with 20-day moving averages.  This inwards itself is non a mutual occurrence.  Going dorsum to 2006, I could exclusively discovery 12 instances of this happening when VIX has been below 20.  Interestingly, three were up, ix downward the side past times side 24-hour interval for a internet loss, but 10 were up, 2 downward after three days.  We're trading a fighting lower premarket equally I write; the depth of a side past times side pullback volition state us a lot nearly possible upside momentum over the side past times side few days.

*  One line of piece of occupation concern starting to travel inwards my caput is that Friday's highs were the origin inwards which nosotros saw sizable breadth divergences.  If nosotros aspect at all stocks across all exchanges, nosotros tin run across that 1087 made fresh monthly highs on Fri against 2082 the prior Friday.  Much of this is a operate of relative weakness amid small-scale caps.  We exclusively had 92 novel monthly lows on Friday, together with thus naught is standing out equally weak together with I'm non expecting whatsoever grand reversal.  I am concerned, however, that nosotros could run across a decent pullback from these levels equally portion of the start of a topping process.  Bottom line is that I was happy to receive got profits belatedly Fri together with I'm happy to remain on the sidelines together with run across what the bears tin bring.  Ideally, I'd similar to live a buyer of weakness early on inwards the calendar week for at to the lowest degree a retest of highs thereafter.  But I'm non seeing favorably skewed risk/reward right here, right now.

Info!! Trading Notes For The Calendar Week Of April 25, 2016

Friday, Apr 29th

*  I'll hold upwards talking amongst the Benzinga pre-market prep show at 8:35 AM today.  We'll create got a seem at the psychology of the electrical current market.

*  I beloved this postal service regarding innovating too finding novel merchandise setups from Ivanhoff.

*  Stocks bounced nicely from overnight weakness yesterday but too then stalled at prior peak levels too sold off sharply into the close.  Breadth was non peculiarly poor; fresh monthly novel highs dropped to 915 too novel lows rose a fighting to 235.  Technology/NASDAQ shares broke below their before Apr lows; housing stocks (XHB) also took a hit.  That's non the form of activity you'd await if the marketplace position was pricing inwards economical strength.  Fewer than 50% of SPX shares are trading inwards a higher house their 3, 5, too 10-day moving averages.  Let's encounter if that tin send away convey inwards buyers, equally prior short-term corrections create got been able to do.

*  H5N1 few things dissimilar most this most recent marketplace position drop:  1) higher volatility on the decline, amongst extreme selling on the NYSE TICK measure; 2) the market's inability to rally during USD weakness too commodity firmness; too 3) continued breakdown of correlations amid marketplace position sectors.  It's when nosotros encounter shifts inwards volatility too correlation that nosotros desire to entertain notions of authorities change.

*  My intermediate-term measures are silent nowhere close oversold levels.  I'm quite opened upwards to toppy marketplace position activity hither too an intermediate-term correction inside the bull cycle.  I'm non expecting a precipitous reversal to send marketplace position mode.  Note the precipitous rising inwards VIX.  My Pure VIX model has turned neutral; non yet inwards "fearful" territory.

Thursday, Apr 28th

*  A seem at the recent displace to higher involvement rates, which has affected the trading of higher yielding stocks too stock sectors.

*  Stocks create got fallen dorsum afterward the Bank of Nippon disappointment final night.  We're right away close the lower terminate of the recent trading range.  I haven't noticed item breadth weakness.  Indeed, smaller cap indexes moved to novel highs yesterday, equally did a lay out of large cap sectors.  Much of the index weakness has come upwards from technology scientific discipline shares too the higher yielding sectors.  New monthly highs rose to 1112; novel lows rose a fighting to 209.  My intermediate-term wheel measures are stretched to the upside, however, so I would non hold upwards surprised to encounter farther consolidation.

*  Most of the corrective activity we've seen inwards stocks since the Feb depression has consisted of sector rotation; therefore no meaningful deterioration inwards the breadth numbers.  Below nosotros tin send away encounter a nautical chart of stocks across all the States exchanges making fresh 3-month highs versus 3-month lows.  It has stayed good for yous throughout the recent move.  One of the things I'm tracking going forrad is the grade to which nosotros encounter across the board weakness on pullbacks versus rotational movement. 

Wednesday, Apr 27th

*  Here's a valuable perspective on challenging hedge fund performance from the Mathematical Investor site.

*  My mensurate of breadth volatility has reached depression levels final reached inwards belatedly November, 2015 before the marketplace position drop.  Volume inwards stocks has also been lagging, which has been associated amongst subnormal forrad returns.  That beingness said, breadth improved yesterday, amongst 876 fresh monthly novel highs too 189 novel lows.

*  Note the divergent sector surgery inwards the past times week, amongst higher yielding shares underperforming too commodity-related shares outperforming.  (Graphic from FinViz).  Rates create got been rising ahead of the Fed; I'm keeping a unopen optic on this.  Note also how technology scientific discipline has been lagging.  Rising rates?  Higher commodities?  Low growth?  Can't imagine a stagflation scenario would hold upwards a non bad one...

Tuesday, Apr 26th

*  Excellent interrogation links from Abnormal Returns.  H5N1 non bad aggregation of quant interrogation comes from Quantocracy.  Lots of novel ideas inwards these sources too lots of practiced blogs to follow.

*  So far my trading experiment has been interesting.  I've been placing far fewer trades, solely trading when the marketplace position lines upwards on 3 fourth dimension frames too a short-term signal is triggered.  The signal comes from volatility bands drawn around lawsuit bars, so the bands reverberate what I've been calling pure volatility (volatility per unit of measurement of marketplace position volume).  The target is also based upon a motility inwards pure volatility units.  The really structured nature of the opportunity taking has led to zilch overtrading too a higher hitting charge per unit of measurement on trades.  I'm placing solely a 10th of the trades I was placing before, overall profitability inwards dollar price has non been hurt, too of course of educational activity risk-adjusted profitability has increased greatly.  It is non clear to me that much of the trading nosotros produce adds value.  By structuring rules around our best trades, nosotros tin send away create important gratis fourth dimension for interrogation too life exterior of markets.

*  We saw increased selling push clit per unit of measurement area inwards yesterday's trade, but cost held relatively good too has bounced a fighting inwards overnight trade.  New monthly highs dropped to 586 too monthly lows also dipped to 208.  I'm silent non seeing important weakness across sectors; the key banking company focus the balance of the calendar week volition dominate trade.  

*  We tin send away encounter the market's forcefulness inwards the wheel mensurate below.  My long-term wheel interrogation suggests that nosotros made an of import wheel depression inwards Feb (the prior wheel depression was October, 2014) too create got been inwards a momentum stage of the novel cycle.  I ultimately await the electrical current wheel to create got us to novel highs, driven equally much past times dovish key banks too the postulate for yield equally growth per se.

Monday, Apr 25th

*  There is a psychological procedure that underlies self-confidence--and to a greater extent than specifically a cognitive process.  Key is the recognition is that confidence is an seem of optimism--and optimism comes from finding structural similarities betwixt introduce challenges too past times ones that create got been mastered.  This is really relevant to the capacity to stick amongst one's ideas too atmospheric condition drawdowns.

*  I'm currently working on a projection that tracks long-term cycles inwards the stock market.  These cycles extend for months, non minutes or days.  It is at this horizon that momentum effects most clearly emerge.  For example, if nosotros larn dorsum to 2006 too rails the per centum of SPX shares that unopen inwards a higher house their 100-day moving averages, nosotros notice that the move past times one-half of readings (those inwards which in that location has been strongest breadth) final result inwards an average side past times side 50-day gain of +2.15%.  The bottom one-half of readings average a side past times side 50-day gain of solely +.33%.  The lion's part of the surgery differential occurs afterward a 20-day belongings period.  Think most what that agency for traders who prepare longer-term ideas but create got to merchandise them on curt fourth dimension frames too what that agency for short-term traders.  Also recollect most the implications for the electrical current market.

*  Stocks create got pulled dorsum inwards overnight trading, continuing to consolidate recent gains.  None of my breadth measures propose that we're yet at an oversold level, equally tin send away hold upwards seen below.  This mensurate tracks SPX shares trading inwards a higher house their 3, 5, 10, too 20-day moving averages.  (Raw information from Index Indicators).

Info!! Trading Notes For The Calendar Week Of April 4, 2016

Friday, Apr 8th

*  Insightful postal service on the misery of bull markets from The Reformed Broker.  Many traders are temperamentally long vol; the 1 prediction you lot most rarely request heed is 1 for piffling get as well as piffling toll change.

*  Going dorsum to 2010, if you lot accept the number of 5-day novel highs minus lows amidst SPX stocks as well as compare those to 20-day novel highs minus lows, you lot teach an interesting view.  When that fourth dimension serial is divided into quartiles, nosotros notice that when 5-day novel highs/lows greatly overstep 20-day highs/lows, the side past times side v days inwards SPY average a gain of exactly +.04%.  When 20-day novel highs/lows greatly overstep 5-day highs/lows, the side past times side v days receive got averaged a gain of +.39%.  (Raw information from Index Indicators).  Think of the implications for FOMO trading...

*  We reversed Wednesday's strength yesterday, closing amongst 5-day novel highs/lows good below the 20-day level.  Less than 20% of  SPX shares closed inwards a higher house their 5-day moving averages and, for the origin fourth dimension since this rally began, fewer than 50% of stocks closed inwards a higher house their 20-day averages.  My wheel mensurate is at 1 time neutral, every bit nosotros run off the recent potent readings (see below).

*  VIX has jumped to inwards a higher house sixteen amongst yesterday's drop.  I receive got built a model that predicts a normal VIX grade from 2 variables:  recent toll modify as well as recent realized volatility.  When VIX is to a greater extent than expensive than the model predicts it should move based on historical precedent, returns receive got been positive; when VIX is to a greater extent than inexpensive than the model predicts, nosotros receive got seen subnormal returns.  Th of concluding calendar week through Mon of this week, nosotros hitting inexpensive levels inwards VIX valuation.  With yesterday's drop, nosotros are dorsum to beingness expensive inwards VIX pricing.  To give an idea, going dorsum to 2012, when VIX has been inwards its most richly priced quartile, the side past times side v days inwards SPY receive got averaged a gain of +.76%.  When VIX has been most cheap, the side past times side v days receive got averaged a gain of exactly +.03%.  In short, when options participants toll inwards also much vol, nosotros tend to teach higher prices--which implies a hateful reversion inwards vol!


Thursday, Apr 7th

*  What would a startup community of traders expression like?  Love this postal service from Howard Lindzon, mainly for the entrepreneurial zest I run across missing amidst then many traders as well as trading firms.  Amazing what a difference it makes to move surrounded past times innovators who convey vision as well as optimism to the future.  I run across precious piffling of that inwards the trading community.

*  Stocks flora solid buying yesterday inwards the wake of oversold readings, but receive got pulled dorsum inwards overnight trade.  My intermediate-term strength measure, which looks at novel highs versus lows for SPX shares on iii dissimilar fourth dimension frames, continues to run off its extended readings.  Many of my cycle-based measures expression similar.  We're getting fewer novel highs amidst stocks as well as novel lows receive got ticked higher the concluding 2 sessions.  Yesterday, across all listed stocks, at that spot were 467 novel monthly highs as well as 417 novel lows.

*  Using information from the Stock Charts site, I rail the number of NYSE stocks giving purchase versus sell signals across multiple technical indicators, such every bit Bollinger Bands, CCI, Parabolic, etc.  Here also nosotros run across the waning strength recently.  My mensurate of breadth volatility (the volatility of breadth readings) has picked upward lately from depression levels as well as that by as well as large has been associated amongst weak returns.

*  Housing (XHB) has been relatively strong.  Not then much commodities (DBC).  Notice the strength of euro as well as yen versus the U.S.A. dollar (FXE as well as FXY).  Hard to believe that is what ECB as well as BOJ desire to move seeing; Federal Reserve annotation the relative weakness of European (VGK) as well as Japanese stocks (EWJ).

Wednesday, Apr 6th

*  We can't modify our behaviour unless we're aware of our behaviour patterns.  Here's a neat postal service on self-awareness as well as trading from Tradeciety.

*  The pullback inwards stocks continued on Tuesday, giving us the origin existent negative breadth reading we've had since the rally launched inwards February.  (See nautical chart below).  Across all exchanges, 270 stocks made fresh monthly highs as well as 492 registered novel monthly lows.  (Data from Barchart).  Only close 10% of SPX shares closed inwards a higher house their 3-day moving averages as well as close 15% inwards a higher house their 5-day averages (data from Index Indicators), telling us that the pullback has been broad.  VIX has climbed inwards a higher house xv as well as nosotros saw greater seat buying across private shares.

*  Yesterday I noted the expansion of purchase signals for stocks on the Stock Spotter site; those signals expanded fifty-fifty farther afterwards yesterday's weakness.  This has by as well as large been positive for SPX.  Their cyclical model for SPY is also quite bullish, which has backtested well.  While I'm viewing this every bit a pullback inwards a bull stage of a wheel as well as await a retest of recent highs, I volition move watching the vigor of whatsoever bounce carefully.  Given the breadth of the recent weakness, it would non surprise me if nosotros were to come inwards a to a greater extent than prolonged topping/range period.  We should run across pronounced breadth divergences on forwards strength if that scenario were playing out.

*   Note the considerable strength inwards high character corporate bonds (LQD).  As noted a piffling land back, these are natural candidates for those seeking yield.  On the other hand, high yield bonds (JNK) receive got been relative underperformers.  This is a defensively minded market, which could also move why U.S.A. shares receive got been outperforming overseas ones (EFA). 



Tuesday, Apr 5th

*  Excellent postal service on trading strategy as well as tactics from The Crosshairs Trader.  Very helpful inwards developing trading plans.

*  We've seen a pullback inwards stocks and, amongst Monday's close, at 1 time receive got fewer than 50% of SPX shares closing inwards a higher house their 3- as well as 5-day moving averages.  With 831 monthly novel highs as well as 288 novel lows, we're yet non seeing pregnant deterioration inwards the breadth data.  Energy stocks receive got been the weakest grouping given the recent crude weakness, but I'm non seeing pregnant weakness amidst whatsoever of the sectors.  Financials receive got been relatively apartment of late, then I receive got a unopen oculus on those.

*  The realized volatility of VIX has hitting levels that receive got been consistent amongst past times marketplace peaks.

*  I noticed that, every bit of yesterday's close, nosotros had an elevated number of purchase signals on the StockSpotter site.  I proceed to move impressed amongst their work.  Their forecast model for SPY also is bullish.  When those 2 factors receive got been introduce since belatedly 2013, when I origin began tracking their numbers, returns v to 10 days out receive got been bullish.  Specifically, we've been upward xix times, downward 8 over the side past times side 10 trading sessions for an average gain of +1.17%.  


Monday, Apr 4th

*  Long-term success, inwards trading as well as inwards life, way sustaining our passions.  Here's how nosotros utilisation that.

*  We're seeing fresh highs this morn as well as receive got almost exclusively erased the drib from belatedly December.  Fri closed amongst 767 novel monthly highs across all exchanges versus 217 lows.  Still no pregnant expansion of weakness inwards the upticks/downticks data, every bit nosotros closed Fri at fresh highs.  Note that the cumulative upticks/downticks mensurate has vaulted inwards a higher house 2015 levels.

*  Among SPX shares, novel 100-day highs outnumbered novel lows past times 127 issues (data from Index Indicators).  That is the strongest breadth reading on that mensurate since the rally began inwards February.  The concluding fourth dimension nosotros had a reading that potent was belatedly inwards 2014.  Note how nosotros receive got stayed overbought inwards the novel high/low mensurate for a considerable period, attesting to the momentum of this rise.

*  Note how crude has been moving lower solar daytime afterwards day, fifty-fifty every bit stocks receive got rallied to novel highs.  The crude drib is noteworthy, coming on the backdrop of a weaker dollar.  High yield corporate debt (JNK) has also failed to brand novel highs inwards the concluding duo of weeks as well as global stocks receive got lagged (EFA).  Could it move that weaker makes for stronger?  As long every bit we're seeing deflationary forces at work, the Fed is probable to hold a dovish stance.

Info!! Trading Notes For The Calendar Week Of April 18, 2016

Friday, Apr 22nd

*  Excellent shipping service from Jesse Felder questioning the wealth lawsuit from recent key banking concern policy.

*  Stocks pulled dorsum inward Thursday's trade, amongst fewer than 50% of SPX shares closing inward a higher house their three in addition to 5-day moving averages.  Despite the pullback, fifty-fifty my shorter-term measures stay inward overbought territory, as seen below:

*  Note how the pullback inward bond prices (rise inward yield) was accompanied past times drops amidst consumer staples (XLP), utility (XLU), in addition to existent estate shares (IYR).  Because these sectors offering enhanced yield in addition to because authorities bonds offering in addition to thence piddling yield, charge per unit of measurement views are playing out inward these stock sectors.  This is a real relevant dynamic for traders/investors.

*  Retail (XRT) in addition to technology scientific discipline (XLK) shares receive got been underperformers lately; much of the recent strength has come upwards from commodity related sectors (XLB, XLE, XME).  Strong commodities (DBC) are unopen to other macro subject playing out inside stock sectors; the relative surgery of stock sectors has been of import lately...it's non precisely risk-on, risk-off across all sectors.

*  China underperforming recently amidst concerns almost credit defaults.  On the radar...


Thursday, Apr 21st

*  Rob Hanna shares historical marketplace patterns on the Quantifiable Edges blog.  Also cheque out Rob's operate amongst Scott Andrews on the InvestiQuant blog.  Lots of proficient ideas here.

*  Stocks continued their deed higher on continued positive breadth.  Across all exchanges, nosotros had 1205 stocks brand fresh monthly highs against 192 lows.  As noted earlier, it's the absence of distinctive weakness inward whatever of the sectors that is noteworthy inward the recent marketplace strength.

*  Here's a valuable perspective on furnish in addition to need inward the States of America stock market.  It's a 10-day moving average of upticks versus downticks amidst all NYSE shares.  Note that, since the Feb lows, that average has never dipped below zero.  Most late this strength has been due to the depression grade of downticks; quite simply, nosotros are non seeing sustained selling from institutions in addition to this has kept stocks aloft.

  *  Here's a await at what's been relatively rigid in addition to weak amidst stock sectors from the FinViz site.  Note the odd strength amidst commodity related shares--a consummate reversal of the weakness nosotros saw early on inward the twelvemonth in addition to through a proficient chunk of 2015.  Renewed strength amidst commodities has been the clearest indication that markets are no longer pricing inward deflationary forces in addition to that's been proficient for global stocks.

Wednesday, Apr 20th

*  Looking for a sketch pad for quantified patterns inward stocks in addition to ETFs?  Great screener on Kora Reddy's Paststat site.

*  Stocks moved to novel highs for this run, amongst significantly expanded breadth.  Across all exchanges, stocks making fresh three calendar month highs vaulted to a novel peak.  (See below).  The full general dominion is that peaks inward breadth/momentum tend to precede cost peaks for bull cycles.  While breadth is stretched here--and indeed we've pulled dorsum inward overnight trade--we proceed to consider dips at successively higher cost lows, which is what makes for bull moves.

*  Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 different agency of looking at breadth tracks the divulge of NYSE stocks giving purchase versus sell signals across a diversity of technical trading systems.  I hold those stats as a cumulative running total, which has also displayed odd strength inward recent sessions.  (See below).  What is as noteworthy is that few shares are giving sell signals, which is a reflection of the depression grade of selling pressure level evident inward the upticks/downticks data.  Bottom line, I'm non seeing signs of deterioration inward this marketplace at the introduce time.

*  Note also the breakout strength amidst international equity indexes (EFA).  We've seen broadening international strength inward stocks as the States of America dollar has weakened. 



Tuesday, Apr 19th 

*  Limited notes side past times side few days;  working amongst traders inward London. 

*  Breadth continues strong,  with over one k fresh monthly highs in addition to over 80% of SPX stocks closing inward a higher house their 3, 5, in addition to 10 twenty-four hours moving averages. 

*  The stair out of upticks in addition to downticks continues to present unusually depression selling pressure. Stocks are unlikely to sustain weakness if institutional participants are non selling. 


Monday, Apr 18th

*  One of the greatest life risks nosotros take is playing it safe.  Life is also of import to live on wasted on inconsequential goals.

*  Recently the striking charge per unit of measurement on my trades has gone up.  That's because I'm non *trading*.  I am entering positions similar an investor in addition to exiting similar a trader.  Waiting for things to work upwards across different fourth dimension frames provides the proficient entry.  Defining a pregnant deed for a given volatility regime in addition to exiting when that is achieved provides the proficient exit.  Slow to instruct into trades, quick to instruct out when the marketplace gives proficient prices.  Perhaps the border inward such a method lies inward making *not trading* the default.  All I tin laissez passer on the axe say is that my involvement inward markets has redoubled always since I got away from screens.  Frequent trading is similar frequent eating: naught could live on worse for the palate, stomach, in addition to appetite!

*  Stocks opened the weekend lower on the heels of the inability of the OPEC coming together to attain an understanding over production cuts.  Since the early on trade, stone oil in addition to stocks receive got rebounded a bit; I'll live on watching the correlation betwixt stone oil in addition to stocks to consider if nosotros re-enter the regime that was bearish for both, as good as for high yield bonds.  Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 resumption of a rigid dollar merchandise would fuel such a regime; inward the absence of the dollar trade, the correlation betwixt stone oil in addition to stocks may live on less certain.

*  Breadth dipped on Friday, amongst 795 stocks making fresh monthly highs in addition to 137 registering novel lows.  My volatility measures receive got striking depression levels that receive got been associated amongst marketplace tops, including the "pure volatility" stair out that tracks the average volatility per unit of measurement of trading volume.  So far, nosotros haven't seen a pregnant expansion of selling pressure level inward the uptick/downtick stair out or inward the novel lows data; I'm watching those closely.  My "pure correlation" measure, tracking the correlation amidst stocks specific to given volatility regimes, also is at (low) levels historically associated amongst subnormal forwards returns over a several calendar week period.

*  My stair out of intermediate term strength, assessing novel highs versus lows across all SPX shares, has fallen toward neutral levels fifty-fifty as cost has moved higher.  While a few measures await toppy, it would surprise me if this bull deed were to all of a precipitous morph into a bear.  

Info!! Sector Update For September 7Th

Last week's sector review noted that Technical Strength, a proprietary mensurate of short-term trending, was bullish across the viii S&P 500 sectors that I follow weekly. It too noted persistent divergences at the marketplace highs, however, together with suggested that nosotros last warning for reversal should the Technical Strength painting demo weaken.

We did, indeed, larn that weakening, equally stocks moved lower inwards the early on portion of the week, bouncing dorsum later. Whereas xxx of the xl stocks that I runway inwards my handbasket were inwards short-term bull trends at the terminate of final week, nosotros come across alone 17 inwards such a style at Friday's close. As the nautical chart inwards a higher house indicates, we're seeing neutral tendency modes for materials shares, healthcare, together with fiscal stocks, amongst alone real weak uptrends for liberate energy together with consumer discretionary shares. Only the defensive consumer staples sector qualifies equally beingness inwards a enterprise uptrend.

Significantly, however, none of the sectors unopen final calendar week inwards short-term downtrends. Despite final week's drop, nosotros proceed to come across a blueprint of higher cost lows inwards the stock market. I am warning to the possibility that the early on calendar week dip together with subsequent bounce are purpose of the market's extended topping process--and peculiarly the possibility of putting inwards a lower, weaker cost high. Should the market's belatedly calendar week rally stall at lower highs, I would last looking to fade that strength. Should the rally demo continued momentum strength, I would facial expression at to the lowest degree i to a greater extent than examination of the bull highs.

Here is how the sectors shaped upwards equally of Friday's close:

MATERIALS: 40
INDUSTRIAL: 240
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: 180
CONSUMER STAPLES: 300
ENERGY: 140
HEALTH CARE: -60
FINANCIAL: 100
TECHNOLOGY: 180

Note that the commodity-sensitive liberate energy together with materials sectors dropped significantly inwards the final week, reflecting commodity weakness. The alone sector to make forcefulness over the calendar week were those defensive staples shares. In lite of the electrical flow wellness assist debate, it is notable that those stocks dropped significantly inwards their technical forcefulness since final week.

All inwards all, it looks to me equally though nosotros are inwards a weakening bull market. The vigor of the follow through to the rally that started belatedly final calendar week volition render of import clues equally to how whatever possible correction volition unfold. The nigh positive scenario for bulls would last a vigorous bounce toward bull highs, creating weather condition for a relatively apartment corrective period, such equally nosotros had inwards June together with July.

As always, I volition last tracking the tendency status of the stocks inwards my handbasket via Twitter (follow the intraday tweets here) along amongst other primal marketplace indicators to come across how that marketplace follow through unfolds.
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Info!! Short-Term Marketplace Moves: Should Nosotros Merchandise Them Or Fade Them?

You intend the marketplace seat volition hold upward going upward and, certain enough, it rises sharply as well as yous alone stimulate got a minor seat on.  Should yous purchase the forcefulness as well as play for momentum, or should yous count on hateful reversion as well as hold off for a pullback to buy?  It is non at all clear that nautical chart patterns are informative inwards answering this fundamental interrogation of entry execution, which has led me to inquiry about technical alternatives.  This is a operate inwards progress alongside a relatively minor information sample, then delight accept alongside appropriate caveats as well as grains of salt.

What nosotros stimulate got to a higher house is SPY plotted against a composite mensurate of daily purchase vs. sell signals for several unlike technical trading systems:  RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, CCI, as well as Parabolic SAR.  (Raw information from Stock Charts).  Every stock on the NYSE is tracked for each of these systems as well as nosotros total the purchase signals as well as subtract the sell signals.  The composite tends to peak ahead of cost during marketplace seat cycles as well as bottoms before long prior to cost fifty-fifty at seeming v-bottoms.

The technical systems overlap i about other to a fair degree, then I took only the ones that showed depression correlation as well as volatility-adjusted them to equalize their signals.  When we've had the greatest publish of purchase signals (top quartile of distribution since July), the adjacent 5 days inwards SPY stimulate got averaged a arrive at of +.33%.  When we've had the fewest purchase signals (bottom quartile), the adjacent 5 days inwards SPY stimulate got averaged a arrive at of +.42%.  All other days (middle quartiles) stimulate got averaged a loss of -.12%.  In other words, nosotros stimulate got seen upside momentum when purchase signals stimulate got been plentiful as well as we've seen hateful reversion when really few stocks stimulate got been demonstrating strength.

When nosotros await at sell signals equally a distinct distribution, nosotros abide by that when in that location are many sell signals (top one-half of distribution), the adjacent 5 days inwards SPY average a loss of -.21%.  When in that location are relatively few sell signals (bottom one-half of distribution), the adjacent 5 days inwards SPY average a arrive at of +.47%.  We thence encounter about downside momentum next wide weakness as well as about upside momentum when in that location has been an absence of weakness.

There is much to a greater extent than operate to hold upward done as well as considerably longer fourth dimension frames to analyze.  The operate thence far suggests that the breadth of marketplace seat forcefulness as well as weakness is relevant to the interrogation of whether i should hold upward trading short-term marketplace seat moves or fading them.

Further Reading:  Tracking Market Cycles With Pure Price Momentum
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Info!! Trading Notes For The Calendar Week Of March 21, 2016

Friday, March 25th

*  Perhaps the most mutual psychological challenge I listen from traders is how to maintain a positive mindset during periods of drawdown.  It's rattling hard to lose coin for a stretch of fourth dimension when you're pouring your pump together with best efforts into markets.  But at that spot is no surer agency of missing opportunities than becoming self-focused together with negatively focused.  This recent article focuses on how nosotros tin sustain well-being together with a positive mindset fifty-fifty when everything seems to hold out going wrong.

*  Stocks bounced from their short-term oversold province of affairs noted yesterday amongst the swing overbought/oversold measure. I am watching breadth closely here, every bit it would non surprise me to run across a to a greater extent than selective stage of the marketplace wheel going forward.  The relative functioning of little caps is of item interest. 

*  I'm seeing increasing utter of straight monetary stimulus to economies.  I suspect this volition hold out actively considered if nosotros larn a renewed deterioration of fiscal weather together with concerns re: deflation.  The implications for asset prices (weak currencies, rigid commodities) would hold out significant.

*  I've been putting considerable function into a gear upward of swing measures that rail overbought/oversold weather together with volatility.  These are based on trial time, where each bar represents an amount of book or toll drive inwards the market, non a unit of measurement of chronological time.  The OBOS mensurate captures momentum together with value effects on a swing basis:  swing returns inwards ES convey been best when we're significantly overbought (+.54%) together with significantly oversold (+.49%).  Returns convey been subnormal betwixt these extremes (-.05%).  Although I bespeak to maintain the specifics of the mensurate proprietary together with express to the managers I function with, I'll happily update periodically on this blog.  Swing returns from electrical flow levels of OBOS together with vol convey non been significantly positive or negative.

*  Here is a swing volatility mensurate that looks at the volatility of the trial bars.  Note how we're close levels that convey lately corresponded to marketplace peaks.  This is yet roughly other argue I'm watching breadth closely.

Thursday, March 24th

*  Thanks to Aaron Fifield for interviewing me for the Chat With Traders podcast.  We demeanour on a set out of topics relevant to factors that brand for trading success.  He's assembled an first-class lineup of interviews worth checking out.

*  We've seen a recent pullback inwards stocks together with oil; yesterday's closed saw an expanded set out of stocks making novel lows amidst relative weakness amid little caps.  I volition hold out tracking breadth closely here, every bit nosotros mightiness hold out seeing a to a greater extent than selective stage of the recent marketplace strength.  Below is a nautical chart of stocks across all exchanges making fresh 3-month highs vs. lows:

*  I've been exploring a swing overbought/oversold mensurate based on trial bars.  As you lot tin see, we've lately entered oversold territory.  As long every bit these swing lows are occurring at successive toll highs, I'm willing to give the produce goodness of the doubtfulness to the bulls.  The nautical chart tracks the mensurate through the recent motion higher.

Wednesday, March 23rd

*  We saw an early on selloff due to the Brussels news, precisely this was bought relatively early on inwards the NY session.  It's a skillful trial of how, inwards a momentum environment, participants desire to larn long fifty-fifty on relatively little dips.  That beingness said, my breadth volatility measures (volatility of daily breadth numbers) has been coming downwardly together with that has led to subnormal returns over the near-term horizon.

*  Interestingly, we're hovering close our highs, precisely yesterday saw alone nigh 40% of SPX stocks trading inwards a higher house their 3-day moving averages.  During these momentum periods, corrections tend to hold out rotational together with we're seeing roughly of that.  Housing, financials, consumer staples, utilities--all convey been off their highs recently.  Technology has been stronger.

*  My wheel mensurate continues inwards elevated territory, in 1 trial to a greater extent than dissimilar much of what nosotros saw inwards 2015, where push clit led to weakness.  That continued elevation on a shorter-term wheel mensurate suggests that a longer-term wheel is at play together with that this has been to a greater extent than than a bounce inwards a demeanour market.

Tuesday, March 22nd

*  We're seeing roughly consolidation overnight next a little upward twenty-four hr catamenia yesterday.  While SPX closed higher, nosotros returned to underperformance of little caps together with the set out of stocks across all exchanges making novel monthly highs dropped from 1660 to 886.  New monthly lows likewise dropped, however, every bit we're soundless non seeing distinctive weakness inwards whatsoever sector.  Volume together with volatility dropped; VIX is forthwith below 14.  More on volatility below.

*  Below is a short-term mensurate of the set out of SPX stocks making fresh 5, 20, together with 100-day highs versus lows.  Notice how nosotros convey stayed elevated for a set out of consecutive days together with how this is different from what nosotros saw through much of 2015.  Whereas "overbought" readings were opportunities to sell concluding year, then far inwards this rising we're seeing momentum together with push clit leading to farther strength--one of the signature characteristics of a fresh marketplace cycle.

*  Despite the market's push clit together with momentum, the rally has non had a lot of fans.  I honour on the Stock Twits site, for example, that messages regarding SPY are 40% bullish, 60% bearish.  That ratio hasn't changed much during the concluding 2 weeks of gains.  I likewise honour that shares outstanding for the SPY ETF convey in 1 trial once to a greater extent than dipped, forthwith dropping below their levels from 5, 10, together with 20 days ago.  Very interestingly, the set out of shares outstanding for SPY has dropped over the course of pedagogy of the rally from mid-February.  Share redemption has to a greater extent than oftentimes than non been associated amongst superior returns over a multi-week horizon.

*  As mentioned above, volatility has dropped over the course of pedagogy of this marketplace rally.  Equally notably, my pure volatility mensurate (volatility per unit of measurement of trading book for the ES futures) has dropped significantly (see below) together with is getting to levels that convey been seen at recent marketplace highs.  I am rattling opened upward to the possibility that we're going into a different stage of the marketplace wheel where we'll run across lower volume, less drive per unit of measurement of volume, together with to a greater extent than of a grinding trade.  For traders accustomed to the drive that nosotros saw for the starting fourth dimension duet of months of this year, that transition to a depression vol authorities tin hold out challenging, requiring a fresh approach to setting targets, stops, together with asset periods.

Monday, March 21st

*  So often, inwards our trading goals, it's gear upward together with forget.  We gear upward goals, precisely oftentimes neglect to follow through.  This article draws upon recent research to position how tin nosotros transcend away to a greater extent than productive--better at pursuing together with reaching the goals that nosotros define.

*  Stocks closed higher overall on Friday, together with we're forthwith seeing over 90% of SPX shares trading inwards a higher house their 20- together with 50-day moving averages.  That is odd push clit off the Feb lows.  My mensurate of upticks versus downticks amid NYSE stocks (NYSE TICK) showed corporation push clit on Fed twenty-four hr catamenia and, every bit the nautical chart below shows, has been inwards an uptrend on a cumulative basis, eclipsing its previous high.  I believe we're pricing inwards a to a greater extent than favorable surroundings for equities, given QE overseas together with a moderating Fed.

*  Yet roughly other agency of tracking the push clit together with weakness of shares is to await at each stock on the NYSE together with run across if it has closed inwards a higher house or below its Bollinger Bands.  (Raw information from Stock Charts).  As the nautical chart below shows, nosotros convey reversed the blueprint of internet weakness from 2015 together with early on 2016 together with convey been persistently inwards a higher house the naught line of piece of job inwards recent days.  Bottom line, I'm non seeing the sort of deterioration that would ordinarily precede a major marketplace reversal.

*  H5N1 spell dorsum I mentioned the shares outstanding inwards the SPY ETF every bit a useful thought approximate together with noted that it had been flashing bearish sentiment, fifty-fifty afterwards the liftoff from the Feb lows.  Sure enough, history repeated together with nosotros continued higher.  Now we're seeing an expansion inwards shares outstanding (net bullish sentiment).  In the by that has led to subnormal returns for SPY.