* MARKET THEMES FROM FRIDAY - Stocks broke to the upside Fri forenoon on potent buying pressure level in addition to robust sector participation, never looking dorsum in addition to setting novel cost highs for the bull move. (See indicator update for a longer-term perspective on the market's forcefulness in addition to the sector update for a await at short-term tendency status). As of this writing, inwards early on Globex action, stocks are continuing to add together to gains. The U.S. dollar weakened for much of the day, fossil oil traded relatively apartment afterwards real early on forcefulness in addition to gilded held onto gains. The 10-year Treasuries fell, raising rates to a higher house 3.55%. While sector in addition to indicator divergences are present--note that nosotros are non seeing novel cost highs inwards EEM at this time--short-term momentum is clearly bullish in addition to nosotros accept been showing day-over-day strength.
* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 7:30 AM CT - Canada, retail sales.
* EARNINGS FOR MONDAY: WINN
* WORTH READING:
-- Risk assets dorsum inwards favor; Friday's major accumulation day inwards stocks;
-- Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 await at marketplace stance and much to a greater extent than expert reading;
-- How healthy is housing?
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Showing posts sorted by relevance for query sector-update-for-august-23rd. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query sector-update-for-august-23rd. Sort by date Show all posts
Monday, April 6, 2015
Thursday, April 9, 2015
Info!! Sector Update For August 23Rd
Last week's sector update emphasized rotation in addition to a wide topping procedure inward stocks. Monday's weakness was followed past times a bounce on Tuesday in addition to a reversal of subsequent weakness early Wednesday, which kept us higher upward Monday's lows. After that, it was off to the races, equally stocks moved steadily to novel bull marketplace position highs.
Recall that Technical Strength is a proprietary mensurate of short-term trending. It tin give the axe endure conceptualized equally akin to a regression line, where tendency is a component subdivision of both gradient in addition to goodness of fit. As you lot tin give the axe run across from the nautical chart above, nosotros stimulate got seen neutral or bullish tendency readings across the viii S&P 500 sectors since the early July lows. Indeed, the nigh recent week's information (orange bars above) present an improvement inward tendency to the upside. That is non what nosotros typically run across inward markets that are topping out. Thus far, stocks stimulate got shown describe and, equally noted inward this past times week's tweets in addition to weblog posts, an impressive mightiness to bounce dorsum from short-term weakness. That suggests that coin on the sidelines has been aggressive inward using weakness to abide by skillful long side entries.
Here is how the Technical Strength readings sorted out past times sector equally of Friday's close:
Technical Strength varies past times sector from a maximum high of +500 (strong uptrend) to a minimum depression of -500 (strong downtrend), with values betwixt -100 in addition to +100 suggesting no pregnant directional movement. Note the consistent bullish readings across the sectors, with notable week-over-week improvement inward sectors that reverberate economical strength: materials, industrial, energy, consumer discretionary, in addition to technology. Clearly the marketplace position is reflecting favorable economical reports in addition to signals, anticipating continued recovery.
All that having been said, it is non clear to me that the recent highs are non component subdivision of a wide topping process. Of the xl stocks inward my handbasket that teach into the sector readings, entirely eleven made fresh bull marketplace position highs on Friday. We run across novel highs lagging alongside the wide universe of NYSE, NASDAQ, in addition to ASE shares equally well, equally my tweets on Friday indicated. If, indeed, nosotros are to run across toppy action, that should get early inward this coming calendar week with notable weakness across sectors. If nosotros produce non run across such weakness, it agency that nosotros are accepting value at higher toll levels which, of course, is what bull markets do.
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Recall that Technical Strength is a proprietary mensurate of short-term trending. It tin give the axe endure conceptualized equally akin to a regression line, where tendency is a component subdivision of both gradient in addition to goodness of fit. As you lot tin give the axe run across from the nautical chart above, nosotros stimulate got seen neutral or bullish tendency readings across the viii S&P 500 sectors since the early July lows. Indeed, the nigh recent week's information (orange bars above) present an improvement inward tendency to the upside. That is non what nosotros typically run across inward markets that are topping out. Thus far, stocks stimulate got shown describe and, equally noted inward this past times week's tweets in addition to weblog posts, an impressive mightiness to bounce dorsum from short-term weakness. That suggests that coin on the sidelines has been aggressive inward using weakness to abide by skillful long side entries.
Here is how the Technical Strength readings sorted out past times sector equally of Friday's close:
MATERIALS: 380
INDUSTRIAL: 420
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: 360
CONSUMER STAPLES: 340
ENERGY: 400
HEALTH CARE: 340
FINANCIAL: 400
TECHNOLOGY: 320
INDUSTRIAL: 420
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: 360
CONSUMER STAPLES: 340
ENERGY: 400
HEALTH CARE: 340
FINANCIAL: 400
TECHNOLOGY: 320
Technical Strength varies past times sector from a maximum high of +500 (strong uptrend) to a minimum depression of -500 (strong downtrend), with values betwixt -100 in addition to +100 suggesting no pregnant directional movement. Note the consistent bullish readings across the sectors, with notable week-over-week improvement inward sectors that reverberate economical strength: materials, industrial, energy, consumer discretionary, in addition to technology. Clearly the marketplace position is reflecting favorable economical reports in addition to signals, anticipating continued recovery.
All that having been said, it is non clear to me that the recent highs are non component subdivision of a wide topping process. Of the xl stocks inward my handbasket that teach into the sector readings, entirely eleven made fresh bull marketplace position highs on Friday. We run across novel highs lagging alongside the wide universe of NYSE, NASDAQ, in addition to ASE shares equally well, equally my tweets on Friday indicated. If, indeed, nosotros are to run across toppy action, that should get early inward this coming calendar week with notable weakness across sectors. If nosotros produce non run across such weakness, it agency that nosotros are accepting value at higher toll levels which, of course, is what bull markets do.
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Tuesday, April 7, 2015
Info!! Indicator Update For August 23Rd
the recent sector update, nosotros saw that the 8 S&P 500 sectors that I rail weekly are all showing bullish short-term uptrends. Now nosotros convey a await at marketplace condition amongst 2 of the intermediate-term indicators of clitoris as well as momentum that I detect almost helpful.
The get-go is the Cumulative Adjusted Demand/Supply Index (DSI; altitude chart). This takes the proprietary Demand/Supply numbers posted each forenoon via Twitter, subtracts the prior 20-day average value from each day's reading, as well as adds the number equally a cumulative sum. This turns the short-term momentum mensurate (which tracks the number of stocks closing higher upwards as well as below the volatility envelopes surrounding their moving averages) into an intermediate-term one.
Note how the DSI hitting an oversold grade on Mon that was similar to the readings registered at the March as well as early on July lows. We stimulate got since moved steadily higher, as well as at in ane trial are seeing fresh bull marketplace highs at lower levels of momentum. There is room for DSI to motion higher earlier it hits overbought levels, as well as hence it would non last surprising to run into higher cost highs inwards the days ahead. Indeed, inwards a bull market, we'll typically run into prices concur relatively steady on pullbacks inwards DSI as well as forge higher on farther "overbought" readings.
That having been said, we're seeing progressively lower highs inwards DSI from the March potent rally to July's motion to novel highs to the present. Should nosotros start to run into toppy readings inwards the raw Demand/Supply Index itself (drying upwards of Demand fifty-fifty equally prices rest firm) at electrical flow Cumulative DSI levels, that would propose that the rally is petering out. With Demand at 166 as well as Supply at 21 equally of Friday's close, that toppiness is non occurring at this time. We stimulate got to stick amongst the short-term upside momentum until the marketplace shows us that it is waning.
Like momentum, the number of stocks making fresh 20-day highs vs. lows (bottom chart) is at notably lower levels at Friday's cost highs than it was early on inwards August. Indeed, nosotros saw 1903 65-day highs on August 3rd, but alone 1242 on Friday. This suggests that the rally's base of operations may last narrowing, something nosotros tend to run into during a topping process, non during the early on stage of a marketplace upleg. I volition last watching novel highs/lows equally good equally DSI rattling carefully early on inwards the calendar week to run into if nosotros convey value higher as well as fix momentum for a fresh upleg vs. trap bulls as well as retreat into concluding week's cost gain equally business office of a topping process.
In my view, it's premature to last aggressively bearish, given the market's short-term uptrend as well as short-term upward momentum, but at that topographic point are likewise yellowish caution flags that brand me hesitant to purchase recent highs. We are making those highs on reduced momentum as well as strength, as well as that makes me quite cautious equally a bull.
Longer term, the painting present is clearer: We are seeing successive lows inwards Cumulative DSI at successively higher cost levels. That is what bull markets do. As long equally we're seeing higher cost lows on each pullback inwards Cumulative DSI, the longer-term bull remains intact.
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The get-go is the Cumulative Adjusted Demand/Supply Index (DSI; altitude chart). This takes the proprietary Demand/Supply numbers posted each forenoon via Twitter, subtracts the prior 20-day average value from each day's reading, as well as adds the number equally a cumulative sum. This turns the short-term momentum mensurate (which tracks the number of stocks closing higher upwards as well as below the volatility envelopes surrounding their moving averages) into an intermediate-term one.
Note how the DSI hitting an oversold grade on Mon that was similar to the readings registered at the March as well as early on July lows. We stimulate got since moved steadily higher, as well as at in ane trial are seeing fresh bull marketplace highs at lower levels of momentum. There is room for DSI to motion higher earlier it hits overbought levels, as well as hence it would non last surprising to run into higher cost highs inwards the days ahead. Indeed, inwards a bull market, we'll typically run into prices concur relatively steady on pullbacks inwards DSI as well as forge higher on farther "overbought" readings.
That having been said, we're seeing progressively lower highs inwards DSI from the March potent rally to July's motion to novel highs to the present. Should nosotros start to run into toppy readings inwards the raw Demand/Supply Index itself (drying upwards of Demand fifty-fifty equally prices rest firm) at electrical flow Cumulative DSI levels, that would propose that the rally is petering out. With Demand at 166 as well as Supply at 21 equally of Friday's close, that toppiness is non occurring at this time. We stimulate got to stick amongst the short-term upside momentum until the marketplace shows us that it is waning.
Like momentum, the number of stocks making fresh 20-day highs vs. lows (bottom chart) is at notably lower levels at Friday's cost highs than it was early on inwards August. Indeed, nosotros saw 1903 65-day highs on August 3rd, but alone 1242 on Friday. This suggests that the rally's base of operations may last narrowing, something nosotros tend to run into during a topping process, non during the early on stage of a marketplace upleg. I volition last watching novel highs/lows equally good equally DSI rattling carefully early on inwards the calendar week to run into if nosotros convey value higher as well as fix momentum for a fresh upleg vs. trap bulls as well as retreat into concluding week's cost gain equally business office of a topping process.
In my view, it's premature to last aggressively bearish, given the market's short-term uptrend as well as short-term upward momentum, but at that topographic point are likewise yellowish caution flags that brand me hesitant to purchase recent highs. We are making those highs on reduced momentum as well as strength, as well as that makes me quite cautious equally a bull.
Longer term, the painting present is clearer: We are seeing successive lows inwards Cumulative DSI at successively higher cost levels. That is what bull markets do. As long equally we're seeing higher cost lows on each pullback inwards Cumulative DSI, the longer-term bull remains intact.
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Wednesday, January 22, 2020
Info!! Sector Update For August 1St
The prior sector update institute that the marketplace position uptrend was healthy, amongst sectors showing positive Technical Strength as well as indicators inwards bullish unison: "It would non endure surprising for traders as well as investors to role pullbacks inwards Technical Strength equally buying opportunities, given the increasingly mutual belief that the S&P 500 Index volition vault to a higher house M earlier in that location is whatsoever correction of significance." Indeed, nosotros approached the M expanse earlier seeing selling larn into the marketplace position belatedly inwards the week.
As nosotros tin run across above, Technical Strength for the viii S&P sectors that I follow weekly remains largely bullish, amongst Consumer Discretionary as well as Energy shares inwards neutral territory. Recall that Technical Strength is a proprietary stair out of short-term trending; sector readings of +300 to +500 advise important uptrending; -300 to -500 indicates important downtrending. Readings betwixt -100 as well as +100 advise that a sector is non trending inwards a meaningful way.
Here's how the sectors are looking equally of Friday's close:
While the marketplace position overall was hitting novel high prices during the week, the relative weakness of economically sensitive Discretionary as well as Energy shares is of approximately concern. I likewise banking concern notation that novel 20- as well as 65-day highs, spell all the same outpacing novel lows, rest below their July 23rd levels. All of this suggests to me that nosotros could endure seeing the commencement of topping activity equally prices approach that M rate inwards the S&P 500 Index. I volition endure updating indicators daily via Twitter to run across if nosotros tin sustain recent marketplace position clitoris (follow here). If nosotros do, indeed, run across a marketplace position topping, nosotros should induce down to autumn off inwards both Technical Strength as well as Demand/Supply readings.
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As nosotros tin run across above, Technical Strength for the viii S&P sectors that I follow weekly remains largely bullish, amongst Consumer Discretionary as well as Energy shares inwards neutral territory. Recall that Technical Strength is a proprietary stair out of short-term trending; sector readings of +300 to +500 advise important uptrending; -300 to -500 indicates important downtrending. Readings betwixt -100 as well as +100 advise that a sector is non trending inwards a meaningful way.
Here's how the sectors are looking equally of Friday's close:
MATERIALS: 320
INDUSTRIAL: 280
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: 40
CONSUMER STAPLES: 280
ENERGY: -20
HEALTH CARE: 280
FINANCIAL: 180
TECHNOLOGY: 320
INDUSTRIAL: 280
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: 40
CONSUMER STAPLES: 280
ENERGY: -20
HEALTH CARE: 280
FINANCIAL: 180
TECHNOLOGY: 320
While the marketplace position overall was hitting novel high prices during the week, the relative weakness of economically sensitive Discretionary as well as Energy shares is of approximately concern. I likewise banking concern notation that novel 20- as well as 65-day highs, spell all the same outpacing novel lows, rest below their July 23rd levels. All of this suggests to me that nosotros could endure seeing the commencement of topping activity equally prices approach that M rate inwards the S&P 500 Index. I volition endure updating indicators daily via Twitter to run across if nosotros tin sustain recent marketplace position clitoris (follow here). If nosotros do, indeed, run across a marketplace position topping, nosotros should induce down to autumn off inwards both Technical Strength as well as Demand/Supply readings.
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