Info!! Indicator Update For March 3Rd

my concluding indicator update, I concluded that, "All inwards all, the prove is suggesting an absence of bullish interest, equally observed inwards the NYSE TICK, the weak novel highs/lows, weak momentum, together with tepid AD Lines." This yesteryear week, non much has changed that assessment.

* New Highs/Lows - We tin meet from the hap nautical chart that novel twenty 24-hour interval lows vs. highs convey continued to expand, amongst 395 NYSE, NASDAQ, together with ASE stocks making fresh highs together with 1665 making novel lows. As long equally novel lows are expanding, it is premature to locomote bottom-fishing for anything other than a short-term trade. At a wider fourth dimension frame, nosotros had fifteen NYSE mutual stocks register fresh 52-week highs on Friday, against 99 novel lows. The latter is the highest number of novel lows since the Jan bottom. Among S&P 500 stocks, nosotros had no annual highs on Fri against 26 novel lows; amidst S&P 600 small-scale cap issues, nosotros had two novel 52-week highs together with 37 novel lows. All inwards all, we're seeing a deterioration of strength, though novel lows are good off their real expanded levels from belatedly January.

* Cumulative Adjusted TICK Line - Note from the 2nd nautical chart higher upwards how the recent marketplace bounce was non at all confirmed yesteryear our Cumulative Adjusted TICK Line, suggesting that bullish participation was waning. Since then, we've broken to novel lows inwards the Line, confirming what we're seeing amidst the novel highs/lows. We take away to meet bullish thought sustained earlier nosotros tin set inwards a durable marketplace bottom. The TICK Line bounce from the Jan lows was impressive, but has since faded. My readings from Th together with Fri advise both an absence of buyers (low positive TICK readings) together with an excess of selling pull per unit of measurement area (extreme negative TICK readings).

* Overbought/Oversold - The bottom nautical chart tracks the cumulative draw of piece of occupation for my Demand/Supply Indicator, which has been a real proficient overbought/oversold mensurate of late. We meet deterioration inwards the cumulative draw of piece of occupation inwards keeping amongst the novel highs/lows together with TICK, equally we've entered oversold territory. Note that readings below -30 convey typified recent marketplace lows on a short-to-intermediate term basis; we're currently some -10.

* Advance/Decline Lines - The AD Line for NYSE mutual stocks remains higher upwards its Jan lows, though non yesteryear much. The same is truthful for the AD Line specific to S&P 500 together with NASDAQ 100 stocks, but we're seeing marginal novel lows inwards the AD Line for the S&P 600 small-scale caps together with the broad NASDAQ Composite. This is telling us that small-scale caps convey resumed weakness relative to large caps. All of these lines are inwards downtrends longer-term.

* Momentum - Among S&P 500 stocks, we're seeing 24% trading higher upwards their 50-day moving averages, a pregnant deterioration from the 55% at the recent marketplace peak. Similarly, we're seeing 29% of S&P 600 small-scale cap stocks trading higher upwards their 50-day MAs, downwards from 51% recently. My Demand/Supply mensurate of short-term momentum was real weak on Friday, amongst Demand at 24 together with Supply at 228. It is non at all odd for momentum to striking extremes earlier nosotros meet actual cost highs or lows for a marketplace move.

All inwards all, nosotros dice on to meet deterioration inwards the indicators together with a possible exam of the Jan lows inwards the making. I am non inclined to purchase this marketplace until nosotros meet definitive prove of greater buying interest, momentum, together with strength.
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Info!! Indicator Update For August 23Rd

the recent sector update, nosotros saw that the 8 S&P 500 sectors that I rail weekly are all showing bullish short-term uptrends. Now nosotros convey a await at marketplace condition amongst 2 of the intermediate-term indicators of clitoris as well as momentum that I detect almost helpful.

The get-go is the Cumulative Adjusted Demand/Supply Index (DSI; altitude chart). This takes the proprietary Demand/Supply numbers posted each forenoon via Twitter, subtracts the prior 20-day average value from each day's reading, as well as adds the number equally a cumulative sum. This turns the short-term momentum mensurate (which tracks the number of stocks closing higher upwards as well as below the volatility envelopes surrounding their moving averages) into an intermediate-term one.

Note how the DSI hitting an oversold grade on Mon that was similar to the readings registered at the March as well as early on July lows. We stimulate got since moved steadily higher, as well as at in ane trial are seeing fresh bull marketplace highs at lower levels of momentum. There is room for DSI to motion higher earlier it hits overbought levels, as well as hence it would non last surprising to run into higher cost highs inwards the days ahead. Indeed, inwards a bull market, we'll typically run into prices concur relatively steady on pullbacks inwards DSI as well as forge higher on farther "overbought" readings.

That having been said, we're seeing progressively lower highs inwards DSI from the March potent rally to July's motion to novel highs to the present. Should nosotros start to run into toppy readings inwards the raw Demand/Supply Index itself (drying upwards of Demand fifty-fifty equally prices rest firm) at electrical flow Cumulative DSI levels, that would propose that the rally is petering out. With Demand at 166 as well as Supply at 21 equally of Friday's close, that toppiness is non occurring at this time. We stimulate got to stick amongst the short-term upside momentum until the marketplace shows us that it is waning.

Like momentum, the number of stocks making fresh 20-day highs vs. lows (bottom chart) is at notably lower levels at Friday's cost highs than it was early on inwards August. Indeed, nosotros saw 1903 65-day highs on August 3rd, but alone 1242 on Friday. This suggests that the rally's base of operations may last narrowing, something nosotros tend to run into during a topping process, non during the early on stage of a marketplace upleg. I volition last watching novel highs/lows equally good equally DSI rattling carefully early on inwards the calendar week to run into if nosotros convey value higher as well as fix momentum for a fresh upleg vs. trap bulls as well as retreat into concluding week's cost gain equally business office of a topping process.

In my view, it's premature to last aggressively bearish, given the market's short-term uptrend as well as short-term upward momentum, but at that topographic point are likewise yellowish caution flags that brand me hesitant to purchase recent highs. We are making those highs on reduced momentum as well as strength, as well as that makes me quite cautious equally a bull.

Longer term, the painting present is clearer: We are seeing successive lows inwards Cumulative DSI at successively higher cost levels. That is what bull markets do. As long equally we're seeing higher cost lows on each pullback inwards Cumulative DSI, the longer-term bull remains intact.
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