Info!! Indicator Update For February 9Th

Last week's indicator review institute that weakness was present, simply that selling pressure level was muted. I noted that a drying upward of selling was necessary for putting inward a durable marketplace bottom, simply was non sufficient. What nosotros likewise demand to run into is an expansion of buying interest.

That buying involvement showed itself belatedly inward the week, with a notable gain on Fri on rigid coin flows. This turned the major S&P 500 sectors bullish, though non at overbought levels of Technical Strength. Reflecting that strength, past times Fri novel 20-day highs alongside NYSE, NASDAQ, as well as ASE stocks were i time once again outnumbering novel lows (middle chart).

Interestingly, my Cumulative Demand/Supply Index, which has done a respectable labor of catching intermediate-term highs as well as lows, is straightaway at levels typically seen almost marketplace highs. In a bull market, nosotros tin displace run into overbought Cumulative DSI readings sustained over time, every bit the marketplace ratchets higher, with to a greater extent than stocks trading to a higher house their short-term volatility envelopes (Demand) than below (Supply). Conversely, inward behave markets, these elevations of Cumulative DSI tend to give-up the ghost opportunities for sellers to larn skillful prices, sustaining the downtrend.

We proceed to run into peaks inward Cumulative DSI at successively lower cost highs, which--as noted inward final week's update--is a hallmark of a behave market. I am watching carefully to run into if the major indexes tin displace sustain a motion to a higher house their belatedly Jan highs, or whether nosotros volition proceed to languish inward a broad trading gain betwixt the high as well as depression 800's inward the S&P 500 futures. As of Friday's close, novel 20-day highs are to a higher house their belatedly Jan levels, simply good off the early on Jan peak. Similarly, nosotros are dorsum to belatedly Jan levels inward Cumulative NYSE TICK (bottom chart), simply off the early on Jan level.

In sum, this is a Missouri market: I demand to run into the marketplace bulls "show me" their paw past times next forcefulness with farther strength. Continued forcefulness inward the Cumulative TICK describe of piece of occupation as well as continued expansion of 20-day novel highs alongside stocks are ii things I'll last looking for inward this "show me" mode, every bit nosotros run into if the marketplace tin displace pause to a higher house meaning resistance inward the depression 900 area. Without such follow-through forcefulness some our electrical flow order of trading, a autumn dorsum to the longer-term VWAP order of 839 inward the ES futures would last a reasonable intermediate-term expectation.

As I've indicated inward past times posts, I role Relative Volume to estimate electrical flow marketplace volatility and the odds of hitting the cost targets that I post service each morn via Twitter, along with updates of the to a higher house indicators (free RSS subscription). For those who runway Relative Volume, hither are the 30-minute median book figures for the ES contract going dorsum to early on January. Standard deviations are inward parentheses:

8:30 - 231,251 (60,713)
9:00 - 190,741 (48,962)
9:30 - 144,204 (54,835)
10:00 - 130,304 (35,418)
10:30 - 103,570 (37,202)
11:00 - 100,055 (44,439)
11:30 - 85,044 (35,845)
12 due north - 104,466 (32,523)
12:30 - 115,163 (53,373)
1:00 - 125,341 (56,872)
1:30 - 132,304 (56,906)
2:00 - 170,241 (43,477)
2:30 - 229,581 (70,819)
3:00 (15 min period) - 92,726 (25,918)

Watch for early on Mon morn Twitter posts for daily as well as weekly SPY cost targets. If you lot don't subscribe to the gratis service, you lot tin displace run into the final 5 "tweets" on the weblog page nether "Twitter Trader". Have a nifty calendar week trading.
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Info!! Indicator Update For January 9Th

some narrowing of the marketplace rally, only nosotros are non every bit all the same seeing a worrisome expansion of novel lows. At a broader fourth dimension horizon, nosotros buy the farm on to register fewer novel 52-week highs relative to October's peak; greenback too the non-confirmations from international indexes. As long every bit novel highs buy the farm on to handily outpace novel lows, I don't sentiment these non-confirmations every bit decisive, only should nosotros present deterioration inwards the indicators amongst these non-confirmations, I would buy the farm to a greater extent than defensive.

* ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: The advance/decline delineate of piece of occupation specific to NYSE mutual stocks, posted yesteryear the helpful Decision Point site, reached bull highs this yesteryear week, every bit advancing stocks led decliners for 4 of the 5 trading sessions. This indicator remains bullish every bit long every bit nosotros rest to a higher house the September/October peaks.

In all, the stock marketplace continues its recovery, fueled yesteryear accommodative monetary policies. There are short-term indications that the rally is getting tired, only every bit all the same none of these threatens the marketplace trend.
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Info!! Indicator Update For March 9Th

Last week's indicator review institute bear witness of "broad as well as persistent marketplace weakness". That weakness has shown upward inward continued weak technical pull across marketplace sectors, as well as it is likewise manifested inward sustained moderate oversold readings inward the Cumulative Demand/Supply Index (top chart). New 20-day lows conk on to swamp 20-day highs (middle chart) as well as nosotros are hitting novel lows inward the Cumulative NYSE TICK (bottom chart).

A review of the advance-decline lines specific to NYSE mutual stocks as well as S&P 500 issues finds that they are likewise hitting deport marketplace lows. Interestingly, every bit mentioned final week, the Cumulative Demand/Supply Index is non at levels that bring marked recent intermediate-term marketplace lows. Until nosotros run into bear witness of a rising Cumulative TICK trouble as well as Demand exceeding Supply, it is premature to assume that oversold indicator readings volition Pb to a sustained marketplace rally.

As always, I volition last updating the indicators prior to the marketplace opened upward each 24-hour interval via Twitter (free subscription) as well as volition run intraday Twitter posts to monitor marketplace conditions. Below are the relative book norms for the ES contract that assistance us decide institutional participation inward that market. The showtime number is the median book for that fourth dimension period; the 2d is the criterion deviation, going dorsum to early on January:

8:30 - 243,447 (59,218)
9:00 - 207,730 (50,526)
9:30 - 169,258 (50,306)
10:00 - 147,066 (63,977)
10:30 - 124,357 (54,924)
11:00 - 113,572 (38,366)
11:30 - 97,808 (32,624)
12 northward - 120,261 (34,884)
12:30 - 123,119 (46,334)
1:00 - 143,712 (58,883)
1:30 - 140,481 (61,558)
2:00 - 190,454 (52,461)
2:30 - 260,692 (89,115)
3:00 (15 2d period) - 106,827 (29,314)

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