Info!! Indicator Update For August 23Rd

the recent sector update, nosotros saw that the 8 S&P 500 sectors that I rail weekly are all showing bullish short-term uptrends. Now nosotros convey a await at marketplace condition amongst 2 of the intermediate-term indicators of clitoris as well as momentum that I detect almost helpful.

The get-go is the Cumulative Adjusted Demand/Supply Index (DSI; altitude chart). This takes the proprietary Demand/Supply numbers posted each forenoon via Twitter, subtracts the prior 20-day average value from each day's reading, as well as adds the number equally a cumulative sum. This turns the short-term momentum mensurate (which tracks the number of stocks closing higher upwards as well as below the volatility envelopes surrounding their moving averages) into an intermediate-term one.

Note how the DSI hitting an oversold grade on Mon that was similar to the readings registered at the March as well as early on July lows. We stimulate got since moved steadily higher, as well as at in ane trial are seeing fresh bull marketplace highs at lower levels of momentum. There is room for DSI to motion higher earlier it hits overbought levels, as well as hence it would non last surprising to run into higher cost highs inwards the days ahead. Indeed, inwards a bull market, we'll typically run into prices concur relatively steady on pullbacks inwards DSI as well as forge higher on farther "overbought" readings.

That having been said, we're seeing progressively lower highs inwards DSI from the March potent rally to July's motion to novel highs to the present. Should nosotros start to run into toppy readings inwards the raw Demand/Supply Index itself (drying upwards of Demand fifty-fifty equally prices rest firm) at electrical flow Cumulative DSI levels, that would propose that the rally is petering out. With Demand at 166 as well as Supply at 21 equally of Friday's close, that toppiness is non occurring at this time. We stimulate got to stick amongst the short-term upside momentum until the marketplace shows us that it is waning.

Like momentum, the number of stocks making fresh 20-day highs vs. lows (bottom chart) is at notably lower levels at Friday's cost highs than it was early on inwards August. Indeed, nosotros saw 1903 65-day highs on August 3rd, but alone 1242 on Friday. This suggests that the rally's base of operations may last narrowing, something nosotros tend to run into during a topping process, non during the early on stage of a marketplace upleg. I volition last watching novel highs/lows equally good equally DSI rattling carefully early on inwards the calendar week to run into if nosotros convey value higher as well as fix momentum for a fresh upleg vs. trap bulls as well as retreat into concluding week's cost gain equally business office of a topping process.

In my view, it's premature to last aggressively bearish, given the market's short-term uptrend as well as short-term upward momentum, but at that topographic point are likewise yellowish caution flags that brand me hesitant to purchase recent highs. We are making those highs on reduced momentum as well as strength, as well as that makes me quite cautious equally a bull.

Longer term, the painting present is clearer: We are seeing successive lows inwards Cumulative DSI at successively higher cost levels. That is what bull markets do. As long equally we're seeing higher cost lows on each pullback inwards Cumulative DSI, the longer-term bull remains intact.
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Info!! Indicator Update For August 3Rd

The recent sector review constitute that most of the S&P 500 sectors operate out along to merchandise inward short-term uptrends. The indicators back upwardly this bullish view, every bit nosotros encounter important positive momentum alongside stocks (top chart) as well as novel 20-day highs greatly outnumbering novel lows (middle chart). The might of the index to steadily postal service novel highs inward the aspect upwardly of potent Demand vs. Supply (i.e., to a greater extent than stocks closing higher upwardly the volatility envelopes surrounding their moving averages than closing below them) is typical of bull marketplace action. Generally, nosotros don't encounter important marketplace corrections until the cumulative Demand/Supply trouble (top chart) posts lower highs on marketplace strength.

Similarly, we're non seeing whatsoever expansion of novel 20-day lows, which typically precedes intermediate-term marketplace corrections. Indeed, novel 65-day highs made a novel acme for this upmove on Thursday, suggesting that marketplace push clit has been quite robust.

Finally, complaint the novel highs inward the advance-decline trouble specific to NYSE mutual stocks, every bit posted past times the first-class Decision Point site. The breadth of marketplace push clit on the novel highs suggests that nosotros are non soundless seeing meaningful topping behavior.

In sum, piece upside momentum has tailed off as well as nosotros could encounter a normal pullback next strength, the indicators propose underlying push clit to the marketplace rise. Since the momentum as well as push clit measures tend to exceed good ahead of price, I await to encounter higher prices for stocks earlier nosotros bring to live on concerned close a fresh acquit market. H5N1 movement below 950 inward the ES futures, accompanied past times expanding novel 20-day lows, would bring me questioning the bull thesis.
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