Showing posts sorted by relevance for query identifying-trend-days-with-intraday. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query identifying-trend-days-with-intraday. Sort by date Show all posts

Sunday, December 9, 2018

Info!! Altitude Trading Technique Posts

During most of the writing of the blog, I was also engaged inwards my ain trading as well as institute several tools as well as techniques to live on useful.  Below are links to posts I wrote virtually these methods.  If you're interested inwards trading psychology posts, you'll run across relevant links on the Forbes page

If y'all can't uncovering the theme you're looking for, y'all mightiness endeavour Googling "" as well as the topic.  That volition frequently clitoris upwardly a few posts, which therefore link to related posts.
  

TOP TRADING TECHNIQUE POSTS:


Many Early Posts on Indicators Can Be Found Here

This early on site also contains articles on trading methods; run across these articles every bit well































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Friday, February 8, 2019

Info!! Ii Telephone Commutation Questions To Enquire When Trading The Twenty-Four Hours Fourth Dimension Frame

When trading the 24-hour interval fourth dimension frame inward the stock indexes, 2 questions are important:

1)  Who is inward the market?

2)  How are they positioning themselves inward the market?

At the most basic level, I desire to generate an estimate--as early on inward the 24-hour interval every bit possible--whether the 24-hour interval is shaping upward every bit a potential tendency 24-hour interval or hit day. 

Who is inward the marketplace is addressed past times volume.  As I've stressed inward the past, book is of import because it correlates quite highly alongside volatility.  Knowing whether we're trading higher upward average, average, or below average book gives us of import clues every bit to whether we're probable to conduct maintain a daily hit greater than, equal to, or lesser than the average range.  That, inward turn, impacts whether moves are probable to extend or contrary on a given fourth dimension frame.  

So let's conduct maintain Friday's merchandise every bit an example.  We had a real strong payrolls number, hence traders were justified inward thinking that nosotros could conduct maintain a catalyst for a strong marketplace day.  I was less convinced of that, given weakness that had been showing upward inward the market.  During the showtime 5 minutes of trading inward SPY, nosotros transacted merely a chip over 2 1000000 shares.  The average showtime 5 infinitesimal book inward SPY over the past times 3 months has been a piddling over 3 1000000 shares.  During the adjacent 5 minutes, nosotros transact well-nigh 1.8 1000000 shares.  The average for that 5 infinitesimal menses is almost 2.5 1000000 shares.

You larn the idea.

Right out of the box, nosotros conduct maintain pocket-size participation inward the market.  When book is below average, it's non that marketplace makers conduct maintain taken the 24-hour interval off.  Rather, it's the shorter together with longer-term directional participants who are non active.  It is much to a greater extent than hard to larn a vigorous tendency 24-hour interval when those directional players aren't playing.  So y'all could say yourself every pretty story inward the the world well-nigh how the payrolls reveal was a game changer, but marketplace participation inward stocks--at to the lowest degree for the 24-hour interval session--was giving a resounding yawn.

OK, hence ane time nosotros run into who is participating, nosotros tin together with hence conduct maintain a facial expression at how they are participating.  Notice the top nautical chart of the NYSE TICK, which is the cyberspace reveal of upticks vs. downticks amidst all stocks inward the NYSE universe.  (Chart is for the 24-hour interval session, where each bar = 5 minutes).  What practise nosotros run into early on inward the session?  First, at that spot is no meaning selling.  The average depression figure for each 5 infinitesimal menses is a piddling less than -300, alongside a measure departure of a piddling over 300.  Early inward trading we're non getting fifty-fifty a measure deviation's worth of selling.  Once again, nosotros tin say ourselves all nosotros desire well-nigh how weak the marketplace has been coming into the 24-hour interval session.  There merely aren't whatsoever sellers inward meaning proportion to move flora early on inward the day.

We besides don't run into a tremendous surge of buying early on inward the day, every bit nosotros larn solely ane upside reading inward the showtime one-half hr exceeding +600.  But if nosotros facial expression at the xanthous null draw of piece of occupation inward the top chart, nosotros tin run into that we're spending to a greater extent than fourth dimension higher upward that draw of piece of occupation than below.  Net activeness is skewed modestly toward the purchase side--more because of the absence of selling involvement than the presence of statistically meaning buying.

That stance is confirmed past times the bottom chart, which tracks the per centum of NYSE stocks trading higher upward their day's volume-weighted average price.  In a strong or weak trending market, the slap-up bulk of stocks volition merchandise higher upward or below their VWAPs.  When nosotros conduct maintain to a greater extent than residue betwixt buying together with selling pressure, that per centum volition facial expression pretty mixed together with non deviate far from 50%.  For the most part, early on inward the day, nosotros hovered betwixt 50 together with 60%.  Again, a pocket-size skew to the purchase side.

Within the showtime minutes of the trading day, nosotros tin generate a reasonable guess of whether the 24-hour interval is shaping upward to move a busy or serenity one; a trending or balanced one.  Note that this has aught to practise alongside nautical chart patterns, moving ridge structures, or economical fundamentals.  It's based upon how participants are genuinely behaving inward the marketplace.  We together with hence tin rails that participation over fourth dimension to seat whether the marketplace is getting stronger, weaker, or to a greater extent than balanced together with whether it's getting busier or quieter.  

Many problems inward 24-hour interval trading occur when nosotros impose our ain views on markets together with practise non focus on how markets are genuinely behaving.  Problems besides occur when nosotros practise non rest sufficiently flexible to continually update our views of how markets are behaving.  With a strong payrolls number, nosotros could conduct maintain imposed a stance of a big marketplace day.  We could conduct maintain conducted studies of how the marketplace has behaved alongside past times big payrolls numbers together with used those to guide our expectations.  It's fine to operate into the 24-hour interval alongside a hypothesis, but every bit Ayn Rand liked to hollo for out, the ultimate arbiter is objective reality.  And that reality told us that, both inward grade of participation together with the skew of participation, this was non shaping upward to move a big day.

A reader of late asked well-nigh trading alongside a positive mindset.  When I am trading well, I don't conduct maintain a positive mindset.  I besides don't conduct maintain a negative mindset.  I conduct maintain a real opened upward mindset.  As a trader together with every bit a psychologist, I'm best off listening earlier acting.

Further Reading:
  
Keys to an Upside Trend Day
Identifying Downside Trend Days
Identifying Trend Days With Intraday New Highs together with Lows
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Sunday, February 24, 2019

Info!! Using Intraday Breadth To Guess Breakouts As Well As Fakeouts

If y'all click on the nautical chart above, y'all volition come across 15-minute bars for the ES futures contract for the twenty-four hours trading session, 8/4/14.  At the transcend of each bar is the discover of stocks closing that stream at twenty-four hours session highs.  At the bottom of each bar is the discover of stocks closing that stream at twenty-four hours session lows.  This includes all United States of America of America stocks (NYSE, NASDAQ, etc.) in addition to the numbers stand upward for novel highs or lows *just for the twenty-four hours session*.

Notice how nosotros opened alongside weakness despite beingness upward from Friday's close.  Note too how the upside breakout from the day's gain to that signal (at the 13:30 ET bar) was accompanied past times a meaningful expansion of novel highs in addition to contraction of novel lows such that novel highs directly led novel lows on the day.

For the residue of the day, novel highs expanded, novel lows contracted, in addition to of class novel highs outnumbered novel lows.  (Chart was created manually from e-Signal data).

Sometimes the marketplace averages tin motion higher or lower, alongside the moves dominated past times a relative handful of highly-weighted large cap stocks.  Other times, the marketplace averages tin motion to fresh highs or lows in addition to the wide marketplace fully participates.  The intraday novel high/new depression numbers nicely capture wide marketplace participation during moves--and were helpful inward validating the midday upside breakout.

Further Reading:  Identifying Trend Days With Intraday Highs in addition to Lows
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Info!! Identifying Tendency Days Amongst Intraday Novel Highs Together With Lows

As a rule, practiced entry execution inward stocks way waiting for pullbacks if you're going long; bounces if you're looking to travel short.  The exception to this dominion are is the vogue day, inward which the marketplace moves consistently inward ane management for the entire 24-hour interval session.  For traders on brusque fourth dimension frames particularly, practiced entry execution on a vogue day--such equally nosotros saw yesterday--means entering early on inward the 24-hour interval too benefiting from the day's directional tendency.

Please review this post service from May; it summarizes fundamental ingredients of an upside vogue day.  All of these were acquaint inward yesterday's session.  This before post too provides a pose out of vogue 24-hour interval signposts; see too this 2009 post.

In the nautical chart above, I rail yesterday's ES futures versus the pose out of stocks trading across all exchanges that are making fresh 24-hour interval session highs minus those making fresh 24-hour interval session lows.  (Data were obtained via e-Signal).  This is an interesting measure, equally it begins tracking novel highs/lows from the marketplace open.  For that reason, values tend to travel elevated during the early on minutes of trading relative to later on inward the day.  During uptrend days, nosotros encounter 2 things:

*  The departure betwixt novel intraday highs too lows stays positive throughout the trading session;

*  We instruct spikes inward novel highs good into the trading session, equally a large proportion of stocks are trending. 

Conversely, during rotational days, we'll encounter closed to stocks making fresh highs for the 24-hour interval session too closed to making fresh lows.  As the marketplace oscillates, the departure betwixt intraday novel highs too lows volition cycle from positive to negative too dorsum again.

Along amongst the indicators outlined inward the inward a higher house posts, the intraday novel highs/lows hand a practiced feel for whether at that topographic point is a directional bias to the day's trade.  With a fleck of testing, relatively early on inward the session, nosotros tin position the probability that nosotros are operating inward a vogue environs or a rangebound one.  This non solely benefits daytraders, merely too aids the entry too instruct out execution of longer timeframe participants.

Further Reading:  Catching Trend Days inward the Stock Market
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Thursday, March 5, 2020

Info!! Locating Together With Trading Trending Days Inward The Stock Market

One of the noteworthy qualities of recent markets has been their herd-like qualities: every bit I noted inwards a postal service a spell ago, we're getting an unusually large subdivision of days closing close their highs or lows. Today's historic rally was similar to final week's weak markets inwards that way: i time a rally or selloff is nether way, it takes on intraday momentum.

I've industrial plant life several indicators to live on specially helpful inwards identifying these trending days: 1) highly skewed advance-decline figures early on inwards the 24-hour interval that don't contrary inwards the starting fourth dimension hr of trading; 2) highly skewed book concentrated inwards advancing or declining stocks that expands through the trading session; as well as 3) a distribution of NYSE TICK values that is skewed positively or negatively, creating a steady sloping cumulative line.

Note, for example, how nosotros never registered an NYSE TICK value of -500 or lower until some 13:20 CT during Monday's uptrend day. Conversely, nosotros registered many readings of +900 or higher prior to that time. One of the indicators I runway during the 24-hour interval is precisely the count of "significant" TICK readings (i.e., values to a greater extent than than ii touchstone deviations from the mean) every bit the 24-hour interval unfolds. Trend days present an early on skew of meaning buying or selling values as well as hold this skew through the day.

Similarly, early on inwards Monday's session nosotros registered 2500 to a greater extent than advancing stocks than decliners on the NYSE--and built on that ratio through much of the day. By definition, a tendency 24-hour interval occurs when buying begets farther buying as well as the reverse; it is the early on presence of extreme values as well as the persistence of these values that alerts us to profitable intraday merchandise yesteryear buying dips or selling bounces.
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