Info!! Potential Fissures Inwards The Deport Marketplace Foundation

I'll live posting my amount indicator review this weekend; here's last week's review for reference. We're getting into the expanse where we're testing closing cost lows from January; whether those levels tin concord or non is the crucial enquiry facing traders inwards coming days.

Thursday nosotros saw 317 novel 20-day highs as well as 2268 novel lows across the NYSE, NASDAQ, as well as ASE. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 fiddling farther out, nosotros get got 128 novel 65-day highs against 914 lows. Compare this alongside the 3943 novel 65-day lows at the Jan lows, as well as y'all tin come across that most stocks get got non exceeded those lows. Going all the same farther out as well as looking exclusively at mutual stocks that merchandise on the NYSE, nosotros come across that, on Thursday, nosotros had thirteen novel 52-week highs as well as 181 novel lows. That is the highest rank of novel lows since the Jan bottom, but banknote that at that prior bottom nosotros had 700 novel lows amidst NYSE mutual issues. Indeed, we're seeing many fewer novel lows straightaway than Jan across all major exchanges as well as indexes.

Meanwhile, we're getting oversold. Among S&P 500 stocks, nosotros are 1 time to a greater extent than seeing less than 20% of stocks trading to a higher house their 50-day moving averages, which has marked recent intermediate-term lows. Interestingly, we're seeing 22% of SPX stocks trading to a higher house their 200-day moving average, which is to a higher house the 14% rank seen inwards January--another potential divergence.

On the bearish side, we're seeing novel Advance-Decline lows for NYSE mutual stocks as well as S&P 600 small-scale caps, but non yet for SPX stocks.

To live sure, stocks are all the same weak; they could buy the farm weaker as well as all the same hold these divergences. My Demand figure unopen at twenty on Thursday, alongside Supply at 139. That agency seven times to a greater extent than stocks are trading below the volatility envelopes surrounding their moving averages equally trading to a higher house them. Still, my Cumulative Demand/Supply indicator, which has done a meridian project of tracking intermediate-term highs as well as lows inwards recent months, is nearing a purchase betoken at -23.

All inwards all it's prudent to hold off for signs of growing strength inwards the indicators earlier making major commitments to the upside. And I'll desire to come across simply about indications of confidence inwards fiscal stocks as well as credit markets earlier putting considerable adventure on the long side.

But brand no fault nigh it: the bearishness is thick. We've had position book exceeding telephone band book for equities for 5 consecutive sessions. The traffic on my website has 1 time once to a greater extent than swelled, equally at the March, August, as well as Jan lows. Back inwards July, when stock indexes were nigh their highs, the indicators were showing cracks inwards the bull marketplace foundation. Now we're seeing potential fissures on the deport side. That has me all the same quite cautious, but cook to pounce if as well as when the bears are forced to embrace their quite exposed backsides.
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Info!! Morning Time Briefing For October 30Th: Or Then Renewed Dollar Strength, Stock Weakness

The U.S. dollar is showing renewed forcefulness vs. the Aussie dollar (bottom chart), in addition to we're seeing a pullback of stocks (top chart) dorsum into their 10/28 range, afterwards having broken inwards a higher house that attain yesterday. That leaves us inwards a wide trading attain defined yesteryear the overnight highs today/Thursday highs in addition to the 1040 grade inwards the ES futures from which nosotros launched yesterday's rally/Wednesday lows.

USD forcefulness reflects, inwards part, concerns over the Fed coming together adjacent week alongside signs that around key banks (Australia, Norway) convey begun their dice strategies from depression involvement rates in addition to monetary ease. Any hints of charge per unit of measurement rises on the horizon could touching on the dollar to the upside, which has seen weakness interpret into appetite for commodities in addition to stocks.

Yesterday's sudden rally afterwards recent considerable weakness suggests that nosotros may convey seen an intermediate-term momentum depression pose inwards yesteryear the stock market. If so, I'd hold upwards looking for signs of bottoming--fewer stocks making fresh 20-day lows in addition to fewer stocks trading below their 20-day moving averages on weakness--before seeing a fresh bull leg. It would non surprise me to watch markets merchandise hesitantly in addition to inwards attain fashion every bit nosotros motility closer to adjacent week's Fed announcement.
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Info!! Tough Swing Trading Marketplace Lay Too About Wednesday Resources

* No Trend, No Friend - Since 2006, the correlation betwixt the electrical current day's cost alter inwards the S&P 500 Index (SPY) together with the adjacent day's alter has been -.095. Since June of this year, however, it has been -.214. Buying later an upwards solar daytime or selling later a downwards solar daytime has been a losing strategy. The tendency has non been a friend for swing traders of late.

* Impressive Rally, Less Impressive Indicator - The marketplace rose sharply on Tuesday, only nosotros alone had 1027 stocks making fresh 20-day highs against 868 novel 20-day lows across the NYSE, NASDAQ, together with ASE. That is fewer novel highs than nosotros saw during the prior marketplace bounces inwards July. I volition hold out watching closely to run across if the rally is gaining or losing traction, especially amid the minor cap stocks, which convey shown less relative trace of late.

* Signs of the Times - The alone ii sector groups inside the S&P 500 universe that are currently showing a bulk of their highly weighted stocks inwards downtrends (my Technical Strength measure) are Materials together with Energy, the ii commodity-related groups. Consumer Staples together with Health Care, ii sectors unremarkably idea to hold out to a greater extent than recession-resistant, are the strongest sectors. Note how Utilities convey been next the commodity/energy stocks lower. We've seen a 2008 depression for aureate together with silvery mining stocks ($XAU), which convey been hammered of late.

* What's Hot? Instant Bull displays the stocks that convey gotten the nearly searches over the final 4 days, equally good equally calendar links to teach economical together with net news. See too the tidings search engine at NewsFlashr, amongst regularly updated headlines, including a page of fiscal headlines amongst search.

* Staying Current - FinViz stays on pinnacle of fiscal tidings together with weblog updates. Check out their screener equally well, equally good equally their sector-based oestrus maps.
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Info!! Fewer Stocks Showing 20-Day Strength

my before sentiment of the indicator, suggesting a narrowing base of operations to the bull market.

Note: This indicator tracks all mutual stocks across the NYSE, NASDAQ, together with ASE together with is updated each morn before the marketplace opened upward via Twitter; follow here).
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Info!! Sector Update For February 22Nd

Last week's sector review concluded, "Clearly we've weakened since final calendar week as well as forthwith are testing major back upward inwards the 800 expanse of the S&P 500 Index. We unopen Fri with novel 20-day highs across the NYSE, NASDAQ, as well as ASE at 492; novel lows were 596. As long every bit nosotros cannot sustain a plurality of novel highs, I await the marketplace position to breach that 800 order as well as examination the acquit marketplace position lows of November."

We did, indeed, sustain a plurality of novel lows as well as convey moved toward the Nov lows on potent selling pressure. As noted inwards my recent post, the over 4000 novel 20-day lows observed on Fri was a order of weakness seen alone xi times since belatedly 2002.

As nosotros expression at the Technical Strength of the viii S&P 500 sectors that I follow each week--a proprietary short-term stair out of trending--we tin dismiss run across farther show of this wide weakness:

MATERIALS: -440 (14%)
INDUSTRIAL: -440 (2%)
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: -440 (8%)
CONSUMER STAPLES: -180 (15%)
ENERGY: -440 (0%)
HEALTH CARE: -360 (31%)
FINANCIAL: -480 (1%)
TECHNOLOGY: -340 (11%)

Recall that the Technical Strength of each sector varies from -500 (very potent downtrend) to +500 (very potent uptrend), with values of -100 to +100 indicating no important trend. As nosotros tin dismiss see, the sectors are to a greater extent than oft than non inwards a strongly downtrending mode, with alone the defensive Consumer Staples grouping showing less weakness. In the recent past, such highly negative readings convey represented oversold weather condition that convey led to short-term rallies.

When nosotros expression at the percent of stocks inwards each sector closing higher upward their 20-day moving averages (in parentheses), every bit noted yesteryear Decision Point, nosotros give away that all sectors exhibit fewer than one-half of their components higher upward that benchmark. Only the defensive Health Care sector shows a meaningful percent of issues higher upward their moving averages. The Energy sector has shown detail deterioration inwards the final week, as well as Financial issues are notably weak.

In sum, nosotros give-up the ghost on to run across wide marketplace position weakness, though a bounce from oversold weather condition would non endure surprising. It is non only the weakness, but the blueprint of sector weakness--with relative forcefulness inwards defensive sectors as well as relative weakness with economically-sensitive ones--that suggests that nosotros convey soundless to plow the corner on the bear.
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