Last week's indicator review concluded that "I maintain to sentiment us every bit inside the May range, leaning toward fading gain extremes unless expanding novel lows together with collapsing NYSE TICK order us otherwise." We did non run across an expansion of novel lows or a spend upward inward the Cumulative TICK this past times calendar week and, amongst Friday's belatedly rally, ended upward knocking on the door of 2009 bull highs.
My range-based sentiment remains intact, however, until nosotros tin run across breakout forcefulness among the sectors together with the indicators above. (I volition encompass Cumulative TICK inward a kind post shortly). We maintain to run across waning upward momentum amidst stocks, every bit captured past times the Cumulative Demand/Supply Index (top chart); we're too seeing fewer NYSE, NASDAQ, together with ASE issues registering fresh 65-day highs. Even amidst the S&P 500 sectors, at that topographic point is mixed performance relative to the momentum highs of early on May.
This weakness shows upward inward the advance-decline trouble for NYSE mutual stocks, every bit posted past times the first-class Decision Point site. (By the way, their tracking of advance-decline lines specific to the S&P 500 sectors is peculiarly informative). Although nosotros striking a bull marketplace position high inward the NYSE Composite Index (bottom chart), the advance-decline trouble for NYSE mutual shares is lagging a bit. That lag is fifty-fifty to a greater extent than pronounced amidst S&P 600 small-scale cap stocks, suggesting a narrowing of the base of operations of this rally.
I volition involve to run across a broadening of that base of operations earlier final that Friday's forcefulness is the firstly of a fresh bull leg higher. Should nosotros neglect to sustain novel toll highs across the major indexes, I would facial expression a supply to good inside the trading gain defined past times the highs together with lows of the past times several weeks. As always, I volition post the major indicators to Twitter prior to the opened upward of each marketplace position day; free subscription via RSS here.
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