Info!! Updated Relative Book Norms For The Es Market

As promised, I'm updating readers on the relative book norms for the S&P 500 e-mini (ES) market. Remember, these stand upward for the median volumes for each one-half hr menses during the marketplace position day. I volition live posting to a greater extent than on the topic of relative book inwards coming days. For to a greater extent than data almost relative volume, banking corporation tally out the recent postal service on the topic likewise equally this explanation.

The numbers inwards parentheses are the criterion deviations some those median book values. That gives you lot an take in of what a really high or depression book figure would hold off like: I mostly visit values inwards a higher house or below 1 criterion divergence to live meaningful.

Note that all times are Central Time, U.S.; the lastly menses is the fifteen infinitesimal "after hours" menses inwards Globex futures. The values instruct dorsum to mid-June (45 trading days), which is when the electrical flow contract became the front end month.

8:30 AM - 232,738 (45,819)
9:00 AM - 206,277 (48,136)
9:30 AM - 133,732 (37,981)
10:00 AM - 105,369 (36,975)
10:30 AM - 95,450 (40,804)
11:00 AM - 61,769 (25,008)
11:30 AM - 56,682 (21,972)
12:00 north - 67,068 (30,186)
12:30 PM - 61,687 (23,390)
13:00 PM - 82,336 (32,547)
13:30 PM - 76,717 (44,062)
14:00 PM - 99,610 (35,349)
14:30 PM - 194,488 (56,432)
15:00 PM - 95,539 (25,427)

The numbers dramatically highlight when institutions tend to live most active inwards the stock index futures market. Knowing when large participants are active is of import inwards handicapping the odds of markets moving significantly, equally book correlates alongside volatility past times almost .65. More on this topic to come upward shortly.
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Info!! Eve Briefing For August 19Th

* MARKET THEMES FROM WEDNESDAY - An early on reversal of overnight weakness took stocks higher, alongside consistent buying pressure level through the session too an impressive concord higher upwardly Monday's lows. This moved us dorsum into the multi-day trading attain that had existed prior to Monday's drop, reversing the short-term downtrend. Strength inwards commodities too 10-year Treasury yields too weakness inwards the dollar supported the upmove inwards stocks for much of the session. As long every bit nosotros remain higher upwardly the 990 surface area inwards ES that represented yesterday's overhead resistance, nosotros should perish on to teach into that multi-day attain too its pin rate around 1000.

* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 3:30 AM CT - UK, retail sales.

* EARNINGS: BKS, FL, GME, GPS, HNZ, HRL, PSUN, RTP, TTC

* WORTH READING:

-- Average trading volumes through the day for the S&P 500 e-mini contract;

-- Nice additional look at the changes inwards daytraders' chance sets;

-- Interesting article examining value too momentum every bit marketplace seat drivers;

-- Hedge fund managers chasing hot returns and to a greater extent than proficient reads;

-- Finding opportunities amid tax-free bonds;

-- Are nosotros hitting Twitter saturation?

-- Why the foreclosure charge per unit of measurement is depression inwards Vermont;

-- How volition bringing assets dorsum on their books ship upon banks?

-- Scary: 2/3 of mortgages are nether water inwards Nevada; one-half inwards Florida too Arizona, too 42% inwards California.
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Info!! How Stock Index Futures Deed During The Trading Day

the median half-hour book figures posted recently, you'll meet the closed correlation of book too volatility.

(Note: these information become dorsum to mid-June when the electrical flow contract became the forepart month. They are based on the latest 45 trading days).

What nosotros meet is the "smile" designing of intraday volatility: highest early on too belatedly inwards the day. Observe how marketplace motility tails off significantly afterwards the laid out xc minutes of trade. By the 10:00 - 10:30 one-half hour, we're seeing solely one-half the average motility that nosotros typically meet inwards the laid out one-half hr of trade.

For much of the midday, nosotros average solely most .30% every bit a high-low hit per one-half hour. That is most 3 S&P 500 e-mini points. Those hoping for large moves inwards the midday have, on average, been sorely disappointed.

Interestingly, volatility doesn't actually option upward until the concluding one-half hr of the trading day. Hence the perception of many daytraders that their best trading comes really early on too really belatedly inwards the twenty-four hours session.

If y'all become back to that before post, however, you'll meet something subtle: the criterion deviations of book through xi AM CT too hence from 13:30 PM CT on are elevated relative to the midday hours. Since book correlates amongst volatility, that tells us that many busy days are busy because book (i.e., institutional participation) persists beyond the laid out xc minutes too the lastly 45 minutes of the day.

In other words, nosotros don't desire to simply meet how each one-half hour's book is stacking up: nosotros desire to see, inwards relative terms, how book patterns are shifting inside the day. It is when nosotros meet abrupt dropoffs inwards book that we're most probable to meet reduced volatility too a slow, hit trade. Conversely, when book picks upward during the twenty-four hours on a relative basis, that tells us that institutions are finding unique chance at times of twenty-four hours when they mightiness commonly live quiet. That is of import information.
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Info!! Morning Time Briefing For August 20Th: Dorsum Into The Range

As nosotros tin dismiss encounter from the ES futures earlier the open, nosotros started out alongside a intermission to a higher house yesterday's trading make on the heels of describe inwards China. Weak SHLD lucre took us off our highs, too and then disappointing 7:30 AM CT numbers accept returned us to yesterday's trading range. As always, when nosotros neglect on a breakout of a prior day's range, yous desire to pose that day's pin grade every bit your potential cost target. I postal service the pin grade each 24-hour interval earlier the opened upward via Twitter; banknote that 70% of all trading days merchandise dorsum to that pin point.

Meanwhile, we've seen a rollback inwards those intermarket guide chances themes: gilt too stone oil down, the USA dollar stronger vs. euro, too 10-year Treasury rates coming down. I'm viewing us every bit inwards a wide trading make defined yesteryear today's overnight highs too yesterday's early on lows. Ultimately, I believe that the recent weakness (Monday through early on Wednesday) too subsequent bounce are usage of the market's extended topping process. That way that, every bit long every bit nosotros cannot intermission to a higher house today's overnight highs, I am ultimately expecting us to exam the Mon too Midweek lows. If recent themes hold, whatever such exam should endure led yesteryear those emerging markets, especially China.
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Info!! My Handbasket Of Stocks In Addition To How They're Trading

As promised inward the webinar, if you lot click on the screenshot above, you'll encounter the xl stocks that brand upward my handbasket of stocks. There are v stocks from each of viii sector groups: materials, industrial, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, healthcare, financial, in addition to technology.

If the stock prints red, it is downward from its opening price. If it's green, it's upward from its open.

In a trending market, we'll tend to convey dominant crimson or green. When nosotros encounter mixed crimson in addition to green, we're to a greater extent than probable to convey hit leap conditions, equally at that spot is no dominant tendency at the twenty-four threescore minutes catamenia fourth dimension frame (i.e., from the marketplace open).

It's been a rattling useful tool for me.
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Info!! Watching Sector Leaders Inward The Stock Market

Here's a piddling nuance that I didn't include inwards the webinar:

When tracking the stock marketplace lay sectors, pay detail attending to the sectors that are outperforming inwards a rise marketplace lay together with underperforming inwards a weak market. These are the atomic number 82 sectors inwards intraday upswings together with downswings.

Very often, we'll encounter sector rotation when those upswings together with downswings are reversing. Large traders make got profits inwards their long together with brusk positions inwards those atomic number 82 sectors. When traders encounter that the leaders to the upside or downside are starting to lag, it prompts selling or buying across other sectors together with a reversal is born.

Conversely, if the atomic number 82 sectors retain their atomic number 82 condition fifty-fifty during short-term consolidation, I'm to a greater extent than probable to concur on to encounter the upswings or downswings continue.

A dissimilar means of maxim all this is that sector rotation is to a greater extent than typical of make markets than trending ones. When nosotros encounter rotation later a trending move, it's oft a sign that, for the fourth dimension being, the tendency has exhausted itself together with is finding other fourth dimension frame participants taking the other side of the trade.
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Info!! What Relative Book Is Maxim This Morning

Recall the recent post service on relative volume, in addition to y'all tin dismiss come across how today's merchandise is shaping upward amongst the ES book norms. Today's book is first; median book inward parentheses. All times are Central Time, U.S.:

8:30 AM - 216,482 (232,738)
9:00 AM - 151,680 (206,277)
9:30 AM - 131,231 (133,732)
10:00 AM - 67,971 (105,369)

Are nosotros gaining or losing participation equally nosotros sit down virtually the day's highs? Are the opportunity themes making novel highs or belongings back? Are the leading sectors making novel highs or pulling back?

These are about of the kinds of real-time questions I'm bespeak equally I stimulate upward one's take away heed to merchandise or fade a marketplace move. Tough to bet on novel highs when those high prices are non attracting the involvement of those that motility markets.
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Info!! Midday Briefing For August 20Th: Slowdown

we've been trading below average volume for nearly of the day.

So what that tells us is that large institutional participants are largely out of the market, exactly the remaining participants who are active (market makers, prop traders, etc.) are leaning to the purchase side. That keeps the marketplace aloft, fifty-fifty equally nosotros uncovering it hard to generate the juice for a fresh tendency leg up.

Should nosotros teach out along to run into buying pressure level in addition to a pickup of volume, nosotros could become a pregnant breakout motility to the upside. H5N1 breakdown of the buying interest, however, would probable atomic number 82 to a retracement motility dorsum into the thick of the day's trading range. Until either book or TICK budge (or both), it's a marketplace offering niggling short-term trading opportunity.
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Info!! Site Seeing Excursion: Smb Trading Blog

I'd similar to larn dorsum to a few basics on the blog, together with i of those is highlighting unique sources of online information.

The SMB Trading blog comes involve from SMB's proprietary trading firm. The posts incorporate a publish of practical lessons together with nuggets of wisdom for intraday traders.

Some of the recent posts highlight good setups that are occurring fifty-fifty inwards tedious markets together with the importance of waiting for the marketplace to demonstrate its mitt earlier taking a position.

A video on their preparation site emphasizes that success is to a greater extent than close executing fundamentals than coming upwards amongst the next, novel bright trading strategy. By watching the record together with observing support, resistance, together with volume, traders tin anticipate provide together with need together with net turn a profit from those fundamentals. Here's a video that nicely illustrates how they sentiment markets; swell stuff!
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Info!! U.S. Treasuries: Property Bird Review

My recent property shape review focused on unsmooth oil, gold, too the US of America dollar. Now nosotros accept a facial expression at US of America Treasury yields.

Because Treasuries are insured past times the US of America government, they are considered a relative prophylactic haven. Thus, inwards times of economical turmoil--such equally nosotros had inwards belatedly 2008 too early on 2009--we come across active purchasing of Treasuries, which drives downwards their yields.

The two-year yields are sensitive to Federal Reserve policy--actual too anticipated; hence, they receive got stayed close 1% inwards reply to continued Fed ease.

The ten-year yields (middle chart) too thirty-year yields (bottom chart) are sensitive to deflation, reflation, too inflation. They collapsed during the marketplace turmoil--those prophylactic yields were attractive to investors, leading them to snatch upwards longer-dated Treasuries--and straight off receive got bounced dorsum significantly alongside easing of the crisis too reflation.

The number of the bounce inwards yields is a meaningfully steeper yield curve, which encourages lending past times banks (who borrow inexpensive too lend dear). Indeed, the steepness (and steepening) of the crease has been a prissy thought indicator for trader too investor perceptions of recovery. Fears of deflation (which drove the divergence betwixt thirty-year too two-year rates to to a greater extent than or less 2% during the superlative of the crisis) receive got abated; at the same time, longer-term yields are unopen to their mid-2008 levels too non pricing inwards odd inflationary expectations.

Observe how yields bottomed inwards Jan ahead of stocks. We're besides seeing an intermediate-term topping of yields, which receive got moved below their June peaks. I believe this is a possible Pb dot of farther anticipated weakness inwards the economic scheme too topping inwards stocks. With the US of America consumer withal nether the weather, disinflationary themes are every fighting equally much a trace of piece of employment concern equally inflationary ones.
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Info!! Even Out Briefing For August 20Th

* MARKET THEMES FROM THURSDAY: After around pre-opening weakness, stocks 1 time once again caught a bid as well as traded higher during the morning. Volume dried upwardly equally the solar daytime progressed, simply buying pressure level remained potent for the session. The S&P 500 e-mini (ES) futures made fresh highs slow inward the afternoon, simply at that topographic point were non-confirmations from several sectors, equally good equally from the advance-decline line. This had me questioning the vigor of the rally toward day's end. Another inquiry ambit was that, equally stocks made novel highs, nosotros did non encounter comparable line with commodities. Ten-year yields unopen off their highs, equally well. I proceed to sentiment the electrical flow activeness equally business office of an extended topping procedure inward stocks; if the non-confirmations examine significant, as well as therefore nosotros should likewise last seeing around short-term topping.

* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: No major reports scheduled.

* EARNINGS: ANN, SJM

* WORTH READING:

-- Emerging economies Housing won't bottom until slow 2010?

-- Inflation not looking similar a threat;

-- No bottom inward sight for non-residential construction;

-- Recovery based on an addiction to debt;

-- Trading a intermission inward resistance;

-- Thoughts on a two-track economy;
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Info!! Why Can't 1 Follow My Trading System?

Perhaps the close mutual trace of piece of work I listen from traders is that of "discipline": next one's trading plans, rules, signals, and/or system. Sometimes the lapses from dependent area involve failing to accept trades that are indicated. Other times, the occupation is ane of overtrading: taking trades that prevarication exterior one's rules.

If nosotros cry back of lapses of dependent area inwards other areas--cheating on a diet, for example, or procrastinating on run that needs to hold upward completed--we tin consider that, many times, nosotros deed against our longer-term self-interest past times becoming caught upward inwards shorter-term needs. If, for example, nosotros cannot tolerate boredom, nosotros mightiness swallow to create amount the void too intermission our diet.

Ignoring those short-term needs, every bit a whole, doesn't work. Unmet, they eventually sabotage those longer-term intentions. We tin enjoin ourselves that we'll create zilch exactly run all day, exactly other needs volition inevitably creep in. Even if nosotros don't deed on them directly, we'll play them out inwards daydreams too escape run that way.

When dependent area works, it's oft because people lead maintain flora constructive ways to run into those short-term needs. The smoker who craves a cigarette may chew paste every bit a substitute oral activity. I bask sipping on a hot drinkable spell I'm working, exactly likewise much java tin acquire me wired too that gets inwards the agency of the work. Now, every bit I'm writing this, I'm sipping my herbal tea.

The fundamental to sustaining dependent area is to position the specific short-term needs that are occasionally overshadowing trading rules. Once you've made that identification, it is easier to too therefore brainstorm constructive ways of addressing those needs. Traders who overtrade, for example, oft lead maintain problems during repose marketplace times. Their needs are for stimulation. By creating stimulating activities during the trading twenty-four hours that don't accept them away from their screens, they tin avoid using unwanted marketplace activity every bit their stimulation.

This is ane argue that teamwork too grooming at trading firms tin hold upward therefore valuable: they render a constructive focus for traders apart from trading, peculiarly during tiresome times. At ane prop shop, Trading RM inwards Chicago, traders actively telephone yell upward out their "special trades" too brand teamwork too interaction a routine business office of the trading day. It's a footling to a greater extent than hard to avoid proficient trades too pose on bad ones if you're sharing your actions amongst your colleagues!

Other times, traders neglect to follow their rules because they don't genuinely lead maintain confidence inwards their ideas. They front-run their ain signals out of anxiety too expect for perfection inwards setups earlier they act. Their short-term needs oft are for security too security: they demand to believe inwards what they're doing. Very oft this occupation occurs when traders lead maintain short-circuited their learning curves. They are putting meaningful upper-case alphabetic lineament at adventure earlier they've done the newspaper trading too pocket-size real-time trading needed to build a successful rails record. You believe inwards your organisation when y'all see, inwards your ain experience, that it plant over time, across marketplace conditions.

In general, I've flora the cognitive too behavioral methods outlined inwards Rules too Discipline

* Turning Plans Into Commitments

* Trading Discipline Linkfest
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Info!! Morning Time Briefing For August 21St: Testing Highs

Well, nosotros dipped below chiliad inward the ES overnight on weakness inward Asia as well as intelligence that China would live on cutting dorsum on trouble concern lending, but a turnaround inward real early on morning time merchandise lifted European stock markets as well as sent those ES futures inward a higher house yesterday's high as well as knocking at the door of the highs for this bull deed (chart above).

It's nonetheless roughly other example this calendar week of how coin managers accept jumped on short-term weakness to purchase stocks, putting sidelines coin to work. Not surprisingly, we're seeing buying across those correlated adventure assets, amongst a rising inward gilded as well as fossil oil as well as a rising inward the euro vs. the U.S. dollar. Interestingly, we're non seeing detail forcefulness inward 10-year Treasury yields. I'm watching the EUR/USD this morning; it's looking but a fleck toppy every bit of this writing.

Should nosotros come across novel bull highs inward stocks, nosotros would probable come across considerable divergences amid indicators as well as sectors. As this morning's Twitter posting indicated, nosotros solely had 698 stocks brand 20-day highs yesterday, against 229 lows. That compares to over 3000 20-day highs inward the final one-half of July. I'll live on tracking the indicators closely this weekend as well as volition post service to the blog.

My momentum indicator of Demand vs. Supply has been potent the by ii days; we're non nonetheless seeing meaningful topping inward that sensitive measure. We're too at bull highs inward the daily advance-decline stair out for NYSE mutual stocks. Both advise decent breadth to the recent rally, fueling this examination of bull highs.
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Info!! The Position Out Ane Priority For Stressed Out Traders

The publish ane priority for stressed out traders is to halt trading in addition to acquire themselves unstressed. When nosotros are inwards the throes of flying or fight, our regional cerebral blood stream moves relatively away from the brain's executive center: the frontal cortex in addition to toward the motor areas. We are less probable to calmly judge, plan, in addition to weigh options or to a greater extent than probable to deed impulsively. All of us get got known situations inwards which ane bad merchandise leads to around other to brand dorsum the coin leads to withal another. Before yous know it, we've lost far to a greater extent than coin than nosotros always planned.

Thanks to savvy trader in addition to reader Adam for the link to this NY Times floor on how the encephalon becomes enmeshed inwards roughshod stress loops. When nosotros are nether stress, nosotros get got a vogue to croak functionally fixed: nosotros repeat the same behaviors, fifty-fifty when they are non working. It is when nosotros are calmly focused that we're close probable to endure flexible inwards our thinking. Under high degrees of stress, nosotros lose that flexibility. As ane researcher emphasized, “we’re lousy at recognizing when our normal coping mechanisms aren’t working. Our answer is commonly to produce it 5 times more, instead of thinking, perhaps it’s fourth dimension to essay something new.”

In markets, doing something 5 times to a greater extent than tin endure the deviation betwixt a losing twenty-four threescore minutes catamenia in addition to a catastrophic one. This is why it is vitally of import that nosotros time out during the trading twenty-four threescore minutes catamenia periodically, get got our emotional temperatures, in addition to croak along ourselves focused in addition to relaxed amongst muscle-relaxation in addition to deep breathing exercises, equally good equally biofeedback.

In sustaining calm focus, nosotros too house ourselves inwards a mindset conducive to optimal learning. When we're reacting inwards to markets inwards emotional crisis mode, we're hardly probable to get got the perspective needed to acquire from our experience--or to access the learning that we've already acquired.
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Info!! Midday Briefing For August 21St: Sustaining Breakout

The Market Delta nautical chart inward a higher house shows the ES futures on an hourly basis. The bars are themselves drawn equally distributions of book at price, as well as thence that you lot tin come across how book built at each period. Note that nosotros lead maintain consistently stayed inward a higher house the day's volume-weighted average cost (VWAP; blood-red line) as well as that significantly to a greater extent than book has been transacted at the marketplace offering than bid (bottom histogram). Finally nosotros tin come across how nosotros broke out of the volume/value surface area betwixt ES 1010 as well as 1015 as well as straightaway are accepting value higher, inward a higher house 1020.

I lead maintain by as well as large institute that when nosotros lead maintain a positive NYSE TICK distribution *and* nosotros are seeing to a greater extent than book transacting at the offering than bid inward the ES futures, it by as well as large pays to stick alongside the long side--even when other, correlated markets may last lagging. TICK is showing us that the wide universe of NYSE issues are trading on upticks vs. downticks; Market Delta shows us that the stock index futures are assist to transact at their offering price. That way that buyers are aggressive inward the market, and--as we've seen over the concluding few days--that's worth paying attending to.
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Info!! Trading, Investing, Too Trauma

Proper opportunity management is non alone a cornerstone of expert trading in addition to investment; it is essential to trading in addition to investment psychology.

When traders in addition to investors are exposed to excessive risk, the magnitudes of the gains in addition to losses generate large emotional swings, which in addition to then interfere alongside audio planning in addition to judgment.

This is a mutual challenge for traders looking to increase their size: they bump upwards their opportunity inward a large increase in addition to and then receive got difficulty emotionally weathering the larger P/L swings.

It is equally good a mutual challenge for investors, especially those who were "all in" the stock marketplace position during the 2008-2009 collapse in addition to similar a shot equally good confront declines inward their abode values. The touching on of such losses tin hold upwards traumatizing, making it hard to afterward receive got normal, prudent risk.

Jon Markman late interviewed me on this topic in addition to put together an first-class article for the MSN Money site. His indicate is good taken: many private in addition to professional person traders in addition to investors receive got been left behind inward the recent rally because of their lingering fears from prior losses.

It is the nature of trauma to function out us forever fighting the final battle. That leaves us vulnerable inward markets when the battlefield changes. Sound opportunity management is the best therapy of all, because it is preventive. When others are traumatized, the prudent opportunity taker tin hold upwards poised to seize opportunities.
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Info!! Worthwhile Readings To Outset The Weekend

* Permabears' lack of accountability and other first-class reading;

* Thanks to an warning reader for this interesting query article on how hindsight bias affects our perceptions of volatility--and our marketplace performance;

* Nice grab from Matt on this article re: patterns inward algorithmic trading. Great site; banking concern tally out and other first-class reading;

* Thanks to an warning reader for this interesting query article on how hindsight bias affects our perceptions of volatility--and our marketplace performance;

* Nice grab from Matt on his informative trading videos;

* Thanks likewise to a abrupt reader who constitute and other first-class reading;

* Thanks to an warning reader for this interesting query article on how hindsight bias affects our perceptions of volatility--and our marketplace performance;

* Nice grab from Matt on this long, merely insightful post on what makes for trading success. I don't deal alongside all of it, merely it raises rattling worthwhile points;

* Interesting thoughts on and other first-class reading;

* Thanks to an warning reader for this interesting query article on how hindsight bias affects our perceptions of volatility--and our marketplace performance;

* Nice grab from Matt on similarities betwixt poker in addition to trading;

* and other first-class reading;

* Thanks to an warning reader for this interesting query article on how hindsight bias affects our perceptions of volatility--and our marketplace performance;

* Nice grab from Matt on Provocative query re: distribution days: accepted wisdom is non ever wise;

* Good and other first-class reading;

* Thanks to an warning reader for this interesting query article on how hindsight bias affects our perceptions of volatility--and our marketplace performance;

* Nice grab from Matt on thoughts re: trading alternative expiration weeks.
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Info!! Site Seeing Excursion: Cxo Advisory

Recent site visits direct maintain featured Cara Community in addition to SMB Trading. Over time, this tour autobus volition direct maintain us to a issue of interesting sites. For the record, these highlights are never requested yesteryear the site authors, in addition to I have no compensation for them. My sole role is to admit good, creative endure when I encounter it; that enriches everyone.

Today we're visiting the CXO Advisory blog, which has really built an first-class cognition base of operations from master copy in addition to published research. The site is good organized, amongst features concerning such topics equally momentum trading/investing; sentiment measures; in addition to calendar effects inward the stock market.

One of the to a greater extent than sobering features of the site is the tracking of "guru" performance for those advisors that brand trading in addition to investment recommendations. For a especially insightful presentation of the challenges of successful trading in addition to investing, banking concern fit out the "investing demons" feature, which synthesizes a considerable torso of literature.

Considerable endure goes into this site in addition to it shows. Respect.
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Info!! Mental Fatigue In Addition To Getting To The Side Past Times Side Degree Of Performance

I of late posted on the topics of psychological loose energy together with life success together with how nosotros tin overcome procrastination to move to a greater extent than productive. What is the departure betwixt individual who persists through adversity together with individual who gives up? Someone who makes that i extra merchandise to recover losses together with individual who does not? Someone who stays warning together with focused on chance together with individual who overtrades inward unfocused moments?

negative self-talk, together with the frustration of unmet needs.

If you lot intend of our minds together with bodies every bit houses, nosotros direct maintain dozens of leaky windows from which loose energy escapes. We compensate amongst excessive eating, caffeine consumption, drugs, together with thrill-seeking, alone to come across that loose energy dissipate every bit well. Until nosotros repair together with supersede those windows, nosotros volition ever piece of work inefficiently, on partial energy.

Without sufficient psychological energy, nosotros cannot escape the gravity of habit.

That is a major argue why nosotros repeat the same occupation patterns, why nosotros cannot muster the loose energy to stick to plans together with intentions, together with why nosotros procrastinate when nosotros know nosotros should act. The loose energy nosotros bespeak to straight our lives has flown out the window.

What nosotros do exterior of trading either provides or saps loose energy for our marketplace position challenges. How nosotros eat, how nosotros exercise, how nosotros think, how nosotros utilize our time: all either laissez passer loose energy or accept it away.

Life is a preparation campsite for elite performers; that is what gets them to the proverbial adjacent level.

Related Readings:

The Heroic Dimensions of Trading

Gurdjieff, Turtles, together with Trading

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Info!! Industrial Metals: Property Shape Review

a wide facial expression at U.S.A. Treasuries as well as a like facial expression at gold, oil, as well as the U.S.A. dollar. These big flick views aid us appreciate intermarket relationships that capture growth/risk supposition vs. recession/risk aversion themes amidst global macro traders as well as investors.

In this post, nosotros facial expression at industrial metals: copper as well as aluminum. These metals are of import to follow, because they are sensitive to economical activity. If investors believe that emerging economies are rebounding, they volition facial expression increased industrial activity, which volition exhibit upwards equally require for these raw materials. Conversely, a furnish to economical weakness would irksome industrial activeness as well as weaken require for these commodities.

What nosotros come across is that the industrial commodities took sizable plunges during the slowly 2008/early 2009 debacle, dropping to a greater extent than than 50%. Copper bottomed ahead of aluminum (and ahead of the stock marketplace position bottom inwards March) as well as has rebounded improve than aluminum. Both rest good below their 2008 peaks, simply also good off their lows, equally they convey benefited from forcefulness inwards the emerging markets.

With the recent relative weakness of emerging marketplace position equities, we've also seen a stalling out of aluminum as well as copper virtually their recent highs. Both, however, kicking the bucket along to facial expression relatively robust, good to a higher house their June as well as early on July pullbacks. Along alongside oil, these commodities should hand us a expert indication if investors are anticipating whatsoever double dip to the recession; as well as hence far, that's non the message from the charts.
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Info!! Ed Seykota Sings His Trading Lessons

Well, if you lot can't give-up the ghost your trading lessons across past times blog, newsletter, squawk box, video, or chat room, there's e'er music!

Many cheers to reader Warren for pointing out this not-so-trendy, merely trend-following vocal from Ed Seykota together with band. It does comprehend the essence of his trading style!

Never idea I'd link a bluegrass tune; yikes! Gotta give-up the ghost dorsum to da club...
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Info!! Sector Update For August 23Rd

Last week's sector update emphasized rotation in addition to a wide topping procedure inward stocks. Monday's weakness was followed past times a bounce on Tuesday in addition to a reversal of subsequent weakness early Wednesday, which kept us higher upward Monday's lows. After that, it was off to the races, equally stocks moved steadily to novel bull marketplace position highs.

Recall that Technical Strength is a proprietary mensurate of short-term trending. It tin give the axe endure conceptualized equally akin to a regression line, where tendency is a component subdivision of both gradient in addition to goodness of fit. As you lot tin give the axe run across from the nautical chart above, nosotros stimulate got seen neutral or bullish tendency readings across the viii S&P 500 sectors since the early July lows. Indeed, the nigh recent week's information (orange bars above) present an improvement inward tendency to the upside. That is non what nosotros typically run across inward markets that are topping out. Thus far, stocks stimulate got shown describe and, equally noted inward this past times week's tweets in addition to weblog posts, an impressive mightiness to bounce dorsum from short-term weakness. That suggests that coin on the sidelines has been aggressive inward using weakness to abide by skillful long side entries.

Here is how the Technical Strength readings sorted out past times sector equally of Friday's close:

MATERIALS: 380
INDUSTRIAL: 420
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: 360
CONSUMER STAPLES: 340
ENERGY: 400
HEALTH CARE: 340
FINANCIAL: 400
TECHNOLOGY: 320

Technical Strength varies past times sector from a maximum high of +500 (strong uptrend) to a minimum depression of -500 (strong downtrend), with values betwixt -100 in addition to +100 suggesting no pregnant directional movement. Note the consistent bullish readings across the sectors, with notable week-over-week improvement inward sectors that reverberate economical strength: materials, industrial, energy, consumer discretionary, in addition to technology. Clearly the marketplace position is reflecting favorable economical reports in addition to signals, anticipating continued recovery.

All that having been said, it is non clear to me that the recent highs are non component subdivision of a wide topping process. Of the xl stocks inward my handbasket that teach into the sector readings, entirely eleven made fresh bull marketplace position highs on Friday. We run across novel highs lagging alongside the wide universe of NYSE, NASDAQ, in addition to ASE shares equally well, equally my tweets on Friday indicated. If, indeed, nosotros are to run across toppy action, that should get early inward this coming calendar week with notable weakness across sectors. If nosotros produce non run across such weakness, it agency that nosotros are accepting value at higher toll levels which, of course, is what bull markets do.
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Info!! Social Networking Too Trading Success

I showtime amongst a few basic premises:

* I accept something to offering selected, others inwards the trading world;

* Selected others accept something to offering me;

* I don't know who those others are, simply I tin post away respect out.

So every week, I acquire inwards a signal to "cold call" at to the lowest degree 1 trader or manufacture professional person who seems to endure a kindred spirit.

* Half of all my contacts are non returned;

* Half of the contacts returned consequence inwards polite give thank y'all yous as well as cypher more;

* Half of the remaining contacts consequence inwards pleasant social contact as well as cypher more;

* Half of the pleasant social contacts peter out afterward a brusque while;

* The remaining (roughly 1 inwards sixteen) contacts essay to endure highly mutually fulfilling.

So every year, I add together on average 3 professional person soulmates to my network, equally they add together me to theirs. We larn from each other as well as farther each other's work; nosotros cash inwards one's chips on each other going during tough times as well as are at that spot cheering on the sidelines during times of victory.

With xv out of 16 contacts ultimately "failing", y'all could say that I'm non really proficient at networking.

With a network that grows twelvemonth over year, y'all could say that I'm a raving success.

Both are true.

It's the "failed" outreaches that Pb to the successes.

How like to trading: You accept to lose to win. And y'all accept to encompass the losses to respect the victories.

Related Post: How to Lose Money the Right Way

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Info!! Indicator Update For August 23Rd

the recent sector update, nosotros saw that the 8 S&P 500 sectors that I rail weekly are all showing bullish short-term uptrends. Now nosotros convey a await at marketplace condition amongst 2 of the intermediate-term indicators of clitoris as well as momentum that I detect almost helpful.

The get-go is the Cumulative Adjusted Demand/Supply Index (DSI; altitude chart). This takes the proprietary Demand/Supply numbers posted each forenoon via Twitter, subtracts the prior 20-day average value from each day's reading, as well as adds the number equally a cumulative sum. This turns the short-term momentum mensurate (which tracks the number of stocks closing higher upwards as well as below the volatility envelopes surrounding their moving averages) into an intermediate-term one.

Note how the DSI hitting an oversold grade on Mon that was similar to the readings registered at the March as well as early on July lows. We stimulate got since moved steadily higher, as well as at in ane trial are seeing fresh bull marketplace highs at lower levels of momentum. There is room for DSI to motion higher earlier it hits overbought levels, as well as hence it would non last surprising to run into higher cost highs inwards the days ahead. Indeed, inwards a bull market, we'll typically run into prices concur relatively steady on pullbacks inwards DSI as well as forge higher on farther "overbought" readings.

That having been said, we're seeing progressively lower highs inwards DSI from the March potent rally to July's motion to novel highs to the present. Should nosotros start to run into toppy readings inwards the raw Demand/Supply Index itself (drying upwards of Demand fifty-fifty equally prices rest firm) at electrical flow Cumulative DSI levels, that would propose that the rally is petering out. With Demand at 166 as well as Supply at 21 equally of Friday's close, that toppiness is non occurring at this time. We stimulate got to stick amongst the short-term upside momentum until the marketplace shows us that it is waning.

Like momentum, the number of stocks making fresh 20-day highs vs. lows (bottom chart) is at notably lower levels at Friday's cost highs than it was early on inwards August. Indeed, nosotros saw 1903 65-day highs on August 3rd, but alone 1242 on Friday. This suggests that the rally's base of operations may last narrowing, something nosotros tend to run into during a topping process, non during the early on stage of a marketplace upleg. I volition last watching novel highs/lows equally good equally DSI rattling carefully early on inwards the calendar week to run into if nosotros convey value higher as well as fix momentum for a fresh upleg vs. trap bulls as well as retreat into concluding week's cost gain equally business office of a topping process.

In my view, it's premature to last aggressively bearish, given the market's short-term uptrend as well as short-term upward momentum, but at that topographic point are likewise yellowish caution flags that brand me hesitant to purchase recent highs. We are making those highs on reduced momentum as well as strength, as well as that makes me quite cautious equally a bull.

Longer term, the painting present is clearer: We are seeing successive lows inwards Cumulative DSI at successively higher cost levels. That is what bull markets do. As long equally we're seeing higher cost lows on each pullback inwards Cumulative DSI, the longer-term bull remains intact.
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Info!! Eve Briefing For August 23Rd

* MARKET THEMES FROM FRIDAY - Stocks broke to the upside Fri forenoon on potent buying pressure level in addition to robust sector participation, never looking dorsum in addition to setting novel cost highs for the bull move. (See indicator update for a longer-term perspective on the market's forcefulness in addition to the sector update for a await at short-term tendency status). As of this writing, inwards early on Globex action, stocks are continuing to add together to gains. The U.S. dollar weakened for much of the day, fossil oil traded relatively apartment afterwards real early on forcefulness in addition to gilded held onto gains. The 10-year Treasuries fell, raising rates to a higher house 3.55%. While sector in addition to indicator divergences are present--note that nosotros are non seeing novel cost highs inwards EEM at this time--short-term momentum is clearly bullish in addition to nosotros accept been showing day-over-day strength.

* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 7:30 AM CT - Canada, retail sales.

* EARNINGS FOR MONDAY: WINN

* WORTH READING:

-- Risk assets dorsum inwards favor; Friday's major accumulation day inwards stocks;

-- Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 await at marketplace stance and much to a greater extent than expert reading;

-- How healthy is housing?
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Info!! Trading Platform For Developing Traders: Ninja Trader

the painful truths regarding trading in addition to the losses that oftentimes plough over when traders pose their majuscule at run a endangerment prematurely.

If you lot can't brand coin inwards simulation mode, you lot for sure won't succeed inwards alive trading. If you lot tin brand coin inwards simulation mode, *then* you're create to tackle the psychological challenges of putting existent coin on the line. Many traders neglect only because their majuscule runs out earlier their learning curves plough upward. Simulation trading is a means of edifice the learning crimp spell you lot conserve capital.

Ninja Trader supports this philosophy past times making their platform complimentary of accuse to developing traders. You alone pay for the software when you lot are create to become live. All of the software functions, from fake trading to organization evolution to the collection of sophisticated trading metrics, are enabled inwards the complimentary package. That makes the platform an unusually skillful learning tool.

A few features I like:

* Some overnice charting options - Above (top chart) I charted the overnight ES futures (1 min), amongst a 20-period VWAP (blue line) in addition to mass bars (bottom pane). The mass bars exhibit how much of the minute's mass traded at the marketplace position bid (red) vs offering (green). The mass alternative is non every bit flexible every bit Market Delta (it cannot generate bars on historical information in addition to starts the bars afresh if you lot alter fourth dimension periods, add together indicators, etc), but it's a overnice means to acquire acquainted amongst tracking intraday sentiment.

* Learning club stream - In the bottom chart, you lot tin run into i of the Depth of Market (DOM) displays from Ninja. You click on the left (below the marketplace position price) to house a trammel purchase club at a chosen price; you lot click on the correct side of the display (above the marketplace position price) to house a trammel sell club at your chosen price. You tin run into the orders resting inwards the mass inwards a higher house in addition to below the marketplace position cost in addition to rails the club stream over fourth dimension to grab an influx of potential buyers or sellers.

* Order management - Note at the bottom of the DOM nautical chart inwards a higher house that at that topographic point is an alternative for placing orders at the marketplace position in addition to also for plugging inwards your earnings targets, halt loss points, in addition to quantity traded. You tin also house a diverseness of club types via carte selections at the command panel. The software tracks the condition of your orders in addition to records your fills.

* Metrics - H5N1 strategy analyzer module tracks such metrics every bit cyberspace profit, max drawdown, Sharpe ratio, publish of trades, publish of winning/losing trades, average sizes of winners/losers, largest winners/losers, largest publish of consecutive winners/losers, average fourth dimension inwards the market, in addition to average maximum adverse/favorable excursions. Excellent tool for tracking progress in addition to establishing a rails record.

Ninja Trader plant amongst a diverseness of information vendors in addition to connects to a publish of well-known brokers. Management believes that if they expose the software in addition to help traders develop, they'll endure rewarded amongst client loyalty when it's fourth dimension for the trader to become live. That's an odd commitment to trader development, in addition to it's why I'm posting this review.
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Info!! Morning Time Briefing For August 24Th

As the AM tweet noted, Fri was a rigid session inwards U.S.A. stocks, amongst company momentum together with strength. We traded nicely higher early on inwards the overnight session together with currently attain got consolidated in that location inwards the ES futures (chart above), belongings inwards a higher house Friday's highs. We're currently trading at the R1 level; belongings inwards a higher house the recent lows of 1026.50 on early on selling would target the overnight highs together with R2. Meanwhile, the U.S.A. dollar has lately weakened vs. the euro together with we're seeing higher 10-year Treasury rates (now inwards a higher house 3.6%). Oil has likewise bounced higher. In all, the conduct chances themes are pointing inwards a continued bullish fashion; every bit long every bit we're accepting value at higher cost levels, y'all attain got to honour the marketplace strength. I'll hold out watching NYSE TICK closely to meet if the recent rigid buying view continues into today's twenty-four hr catamenia session together with volition postal service via Twitter (free subscription; follow here).
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Info!! Replaying The Commencement Merchandise Of The Morning

noting forcefulness on Fri together with overnight strength. We opened below the overnight high, exactly alongside skillful advance/decline numbers together with positive TICK. Per usual, I waited for the start few minutes to run into how early on merchandise progressed. If you lot click on the one-minute ES nautical chart above, you'll run into that nosotros had early on selling together with and hence a venture buying outburst off back upwardly around 1027.50. TICK was quite positive on the buying.

My entry was on the start TICK pullback to zero. That came at 1030.00 inwards ES. My terminate was correct below the 1027.50 early on session low. My initial profits target was R2 together with the overnight high (1032.50), alongside the sentiment of riding a possible breakout deed that would potentially bring us to the R3 level. It was that latter potential deed that provided the skillful risk/reward on the trade. Otherwise it was nigh a 1:1 risk/reward, exactly alongside indicators on my side.

We moved promptly to the 1032.50 degree on venture TICK, together with I decided to agree 'em, non crimp 'em for the quick gain. I saw skillful forcefulness inwards the Russell stocks together with skillful buying interest.

We moved lower, alongside TICK moving dorsum toward the null expanse together with I sat out that chop. As long equally nosotros didn't teach significantly negative TICK readings, I was going to stick alongside the trade. I observed, however, that the NASDAQ together with Russell indexes pulled dorsum to a greater extent than than ES. That hitting my alert radar. I likewise saw that a pregnant publish of stocks inwards my handbasket were non trading upwardly from their opening prices, likewise a xanthous light.

We together with hence moved dorsum to that 1032.50 expanse inwards ES on skillful TICK, exactly at nowadays NASDAQ together with Russell were below their morn highs. I at nowadays sold out at R2, which was 1032.00. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 two-point gain; nil to write abode about, exactly an acceptable agency to start the week.

As I write now, we're dorsum nigh the 1032.50 degree together with may good pause higher. That's a form merchandise idea; I don't produce the looking back, woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Total fourth dimension inwards trade: xi minutes.

In all its swell planning together with fuzzy discretionary execution, that's ane of my trades.
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Info!! Midday Briefing For August 24Th: Slipping Into The Range

go hither to meet all of the average trading book norms).

8:30 AM CT - 256,400 (232,738)
9:00 AM CT - 163,091 (206,277)
9:30 AM CT - 77,110 (133,732)
10:00 AM CT - 75,681 (105,369)
10:30 AM CT - 62,252 (95,450)

Note how nosotros nigh off merchandise during the morning time hours, turning what looked similar could endure a trending 24-hour interval into a hit one. If higher prices aren't attracting the participation of large marketplace participants, there's a expert likelihood that nosotros won't sustain that strength.
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Info!! Gratis Webinar Adjacent Calendar Week Amongst Ioamt

One of the online trading as well as preparation rooms that I involve heed expert things virtually is this post for a piffling background as well as this 1 that outlines my solution-focused approaches.

When the registration information for the webinar is posted, I'll frontward via Twitter as well as roughly other spider web log posting. I likewise believe that the session volition live on archived for those unable to attend inward existent time. Look frontward to seeing you lot there!

Brett