industrial metals, U.S. Treasuries, too crude oil, gold, too the the States dollar. Now we're taking a aspect at 3 grains: corn, soybeans, too wheat.
Note that all 3 dropped dramatically during the fiscal crisis, along amongst commodities overall. Wheat genuinely topped out offset too has been the weakest of the group, reflecting large global stocks. Corn spiked higher than the others inward 2008--in business office due to its cachet equally a potential biofuel--but dropped past times to a greater extent than than one-half during the crisis. Soybeans, likewise a candidate root for biofuels, has been less volatile both to the upside too downside.
Interestingly, these grains bottomed ahead of stocks too moved higher from piece of cake 2008. Wheat has since made novel comport marketplace lows (unlike near commodities), too both corn too beans are notably off their recent highs.
Both equally a fuel even out too equally a foodstuff, grains response to economical expectations. Their bounce from the 2008 lows has non been impressive equally a whole, too they are currently reflecting novel weakness relative to other commodity groups. This is consistent amongst a weak economical recovery, too it is consistent amongst a benign inflationary outlook amongst honour to nutrient prices.
.
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Monday, March 30, 2015
Info!! Eve Briefing For August 24Th
* MARKET THEMES FROM MONDAY: We traded higher inwards morning time trading, making fresh bull highs, earlier selling retraced the morning time attain as well as therefore some. This sets us upward amongst a attain merchandise betwixt Monday's highs as well as lows. Should nosotros interruption below those lows, nosotros therefore await to Friday's pin grade every bit a downside target. Holding inwards a higher house Monday's lows would target Monday's pivot. During the stock market's retreat, nosotros saw the U.S.A. dollar autumn versus the euro; gilded as well as stone oil weaken; as well as 10-year Treasury rates autumn dorsum below 3.5%. In short, nosotros saw turn a profit taking amid the opportunity assets as well as buying of relatively rubber assets.
* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 1:00 AM CT - Germany, GDP; 6:50 PM CT - Japan, merchandise merchandise balance.
* EARNINGS FOR TUESDAY: BGP, BIG, BKC, CHS, MDT, SPLS.
* WORTH READING:
-- Insightful interview amongst Charles Kirk;
-- Recap of where nosotros stand inwards the major stock indexes;
-- The challenges cardinal banks face inwards unwinding monetary ease;
-- Excellent review of economical gauges;
-- Global economic review.
.
* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 1:00 AM CT - Germany, GDP; 6:50 PM CT - Japan, merchandise merchandise balance.
* EARNINGS FOR TUESDAY: BGP, BIG, BKC, CHS, MDT, SPLS.
* WORTH READING:
-- Insightful interview amongst Charles Kirk;
-- Recap of where nosotros stand inwards the major stock indexes;
-- The challenges cardinal banks face inwards unwinding monetary ease;
-- Excellent review of economical gauges;
-- Global economic review.
.
Sunday, March 29, 2015
Info!! Discovery Your Trading Rules
One worthwhile exercise is to review your proficient trades too seat what made them good. What you'll detect are or too thence of the "rules" that contain your best trading: the best practices that contribute to your success. By contrary engineering your proficient trading, yous brand rules your rules explicit. Once they are explicit, yous tin mentally rehearse them, laissez passer on off them equally daily trading goals, too consciously apply them inward the future.
Let's accept a await at the recent merchandise that I posted too abstract a few of my trading rules:
1) Trade inward the management of intraday sentiment, equally captured past times NYSE TICK too Market Delta;
2) Start amongst net turn a profit targets: attain extremes, pin prices, too R1/R2/R3 too S1/S2/S3 targets. First figure out where yous scream upwards the marketplace is probable to move.
3) Execute the merchandise on a pullback inward intraday sentiment: a drib inward TICK during an uptrend; a bounce inward TICK during a downtrend. Don't chase cost highs or lows. Make the marketplace present yous that it is making a higher depression (uptrend), a lower high (downtrend), or belongings support/resistance (range).
4) Put your halt loss degree far plenty away that it won't live on striking past times random noise; that, if it's hit, it volition order yous clearly that you're wrong. Size the seat modest plenty too thence that yous tin readily weather condition getting stopped out.
5) Don't acquire into a merchandise unless yous stimulate got at to the lowest degree 1:1 risk/reward to the get-go net turn a profit target too meaningfully higher to subsequent targets.
6) Enter your seat amongst plenty size too thence that yous tin accept a slice off at your get-go net turn a profit target too even too thence meaningfully participate inward a farther motion inward your direction. Enter your seat amongst modest plenty size too thence that yous tin add together to the merchandise if it proves peculiarly strong. If things await dicey at your get-go net turn a profit target, don't hesitate to accept quick profits.
7) Don't await dorsum land you're trading too minute gauge yourself; reviewing comes afterward the closing bell. Identify whatever lessons you've learned from your trade, simply give-up the ghost along focused on fresh chance 1 time you've unopen a position.
I stimulate got other rules, of course, simply these are or too thence of the of import ones illustrated past times the merchandise I posted. Over time, I'll post service other trades--including losers--to illustrate other rules.
The thought is non for your rules to check mine, simply rather for yous to acquire to a greater extent than aware of the rules that contribute to your success, too thence that yous tin acquire to a greater extent than consistent inward next them.
Let's accept a await at the recent merchandise that I posted too abstract a few of my trading rules:
1) Trade inward the management of intraday sentiment, equally captured past times NYSE TICK too Market Delta;
2) Start amongst net turn a profit targets: attain extremes, pin prices, too R1/R2/R3 too S1/S2/S3 targets. First figure out where yous scream upwards the marketplace is probable to move.
3) Execute the merchandise on a pullback inward intraday sentiment: a drib inward TICK during an uptrend; a bounce inward TICK during a downtrend. Don't chase cost highs or lows. Make the marketplace present yous that it is making a higher depression (uptrend), a lower high (downtrend), or belongings support/resistance (range).
4) Put your halt loss degree far plenty away that it won't live on striking past times random noise; that, if it's hit, it volition order yous clearly that you're wrong. Size the seat modest plenty too thence that yous tin readily weather condition getting stopped out.
5) Don't acquire into a merchandise unless yous stimulate got at to the lowest degree 1:1 risk/reward to the get-go net turn a profit target too meaningfully higher to subsequent targets.
6) Enter your seat amongst plenty size too thence that yous tin accept a slice off at your get-go net turn a profit target too even too thence meaningfully participate inward a farther motion inward your direction. Enter your seat amongst modest plenty size too thence that yous tin add together to the merchandise if it proves peculiarly strong. If things await dicey at your get-go net turn a profit target, don't hesitate to accept quick profits.
7) Don't await dorsum land you're trading too minute gauge yourself; reviewing comes afterward the closing bell. Identify whatever lessons you've learned from your trade, simply give-up the ghost along focused on fresh chance 1 time you've unopen a position.
I stimulate got other rules, of course, simply these are or too thence of the of import ones illustrated past times the merchandise I posted. Over time, I'll post service other trades--including losers--to illustrate other rules.
The thought is non for your rules to check mine, simply rather for yous to acquire to a greater extent than aware of the rules that contribute to your success, too thence that yous tin acquire to a greater extent than consistent inward next them.
RELEVANT READINGS:
Reasoning, Preparation, too Trading Success
My Trading Process
.
Reasoning, Preparation, too Trading Success
My Trading Process
Saturday, March 28, 2015
Info!! Catching Upward On A Few Things
I'm working amongst hedge fund portfolio managers today together with Wednesday; returning domicile on Thursday, together with thus tweets together with posts volition hold upward to a greater extent than express than the commons frantic pace.
There accept been a release of positive emails together with comments from readers close yesterday's post detailing the idea procedure behind i of my trades. Thanks for the interest; I volition follow upward amongst other "real life" posts, including losing trades together with dealing amongst those!
Thanks every bit good for the involvement regarding next week's webinar amongst IOAMT. I volition post registration information when it's available. Speaking of IOAMT, I run across where Bill Duryea is offering a gratis webinar on Market Profile. I maintain to detect the Profile framework invaluable inward conceptualizing marketplace position activeness across fourth dimension frames.
I'm every bit good all the same waiting to listen on the posting of the archive for the most recent webinar on best practices. I'll post hither to the weblog i time it's up. Thanks for your patience!
Brett
.
There accept been a release of positive emails together with comments from readers close yesterday's post detailing the idea procedure behind i of my trades. Thanks for the interest; I volition follow upward amongst other "real life" posts, including losing trades together with dealing amongst those!
Thanks every bit good for the involvement regarding next week's webinar amongst IOAMT. I volition post registration information when it's available. Speaking of IOAMT, I run across where Bill Duryea is offering a gratis webinar on Market Profile. I maintain to detect the Profile framework invaluable inward conceptualizing marketplace position activeness across fourth dimension frames.
I'm every bit good all the same waiting to listen on the posting of the archive for the most recent webinar on best practices. I'll post hither to the weblog i time it's up. Thanks for your patience!
Brett
.
Friday, March 27, 2015
Info!! Midday Briefing For August 25Th: Sustaining The Bull

We tin meet from the 30-minute nautical chart of the ES futures that nosotros get got been consolidating inwards a hit since breaking out to bull highs on Fri together with adding to those gains early Monday. Note that we're continuing to merchandise inwards a higher house Friday's breakout point, which agency that we're accepting value at this higher level. One of the best indicators I know that differentiates faux breakouts from the existent bargain is merely time. If a marketplace put is going to saltation a trap for bulls, it volition contrary relatively promptly together with forcefulness the roofing of positions. The longer nosotros pass inwards a novel range, the to a greater extent than probable it is that participants get got accepted value in that location together with nosotros volition rest in that location equally a novel valuation.
So far, pullbacks inwards stocks get got been relatively curt together with shallow. Money managers cannot live on caught without positions inwards a recovering market. As long equally that dynamic persists, nosotros should meet pullbacks at successively higher toll levels together with a willingness to get got value on upside breakouts.
.
Thursday, March 26, 2015
Info!! Tracking Intermarket Themes Amongst Barchart.Com
track intermarket themes; major props to the first-class Barchart site for these futures marketplace oestrus maps. Above is the oestrus map for 12:50 PM CT together with and then the map from an hr later. The map shows how major property classes are moving relative to i another; past times tracking the map over time, you lot tin hit the axe run into which groups are receiving buying together with selling interest.
Note how stocks are hit outflow today together with how nosotros run into rattling piffling inward the means of directional intermarket themes on the day. Oil is down, stocks retraced before strength, the dollar together with involvement rates are piffling changed, and--overall--there's non much volatility to the numbers. This is i first-class enjoin for a hit day: if correlated markets aren't trending, stocks oftentimes won't detect distinctive buying or selling interest.
.
Note how stocks are hit outflow today together with how nosotros run into rattling piffling inward the means of directional intermarket themes on the day. Oil is down, stocks retraced before strength, the dollar together with involvement rates are piffling changed, and--overall--there's non much volatility to the numbers. This is i first-class enjoin for a hit day: if correlated markets aren't trending, stocks oftentimes won't detect distinctive buying or selling interest.
.
Wednesday, March 25, 2015
Info!! Trading The Transition Pattern: Profiting From Stock Marketplace Lay Reversals
another short-term transition pattern; here's yet another. Like in addition to thus much inwards trading, one-half the challenge is only preparation your middle to encounter the patterns that gear upwards in addition to thus similarly, but notwithstanding uniquely, each solar daytime in addition to week.
.
.
Tuesday, March 24, 2015
Info!! Flush Briefing For August 25Th
* MARKET THEMES FROM TUESDAY: We saw a rangebound marketplace on Tuesday, equally early on forcefulness reversed together with pulled us into a two-day trading range. Oil was weak, but non a lot of crusade inwards the the U.S. of A. dollar, together with 10-year Treasury rates stayed below 3.5%. New 20-day highs across the NYSE, NASDAQ, together with ASE dipped to 1381 against 212 lows. While the novel highs remain non-confirming of recent toll highs (an number of roughly caution for me), novel 20-day lows convey non expanded to the betoken where it appears that we're rolling over. Note that we've equally good seen novel bull highs inwards the advance/decline lines specific to S&P 500 stocks together with to NYSE mutual issues only. Indeed, we've had to a greater extent than advancing issues than decliners for 5 of the final half-dozen trading sessions.
* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 3:00 AM CT - Germany, Ifo concern catch survey.
* EARNINGS FOR WEDNESDAY: CWTR, DLTR, DSW, GES, JAS, MIK, WSM
* WORTH READING:
-- Thanks to an alarm reader for this question summary on the effects of multitasking;
-- I encounter where HeartMath is offering their em-Wave biofeedback unit of measurement for 40% off;
-- Too much coin sloshing around to sustain marketplace downturn;
-- What happens when PRC slows down?
-- Nice wrap of bond market;
.
* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 3:00 AM CT - Germany, Ifo concern catch survey.
* EARNINGS FOR WEDNESDAY: CWTR, DLTR, DSW, GES, JAS, MIK, WSM
* WORTH READING:
-- Thanks to an alarm reader for this question summary on the effects of multitasking;
-- I encounter where HeartMath is offering their em-Wave biofeedback unit of measurement for 40% off;
-- Too much coin sloshing around to sustain marketplace downturn;
-- What happens when PRC slows down?
-- Nice wrap of bond market;
.
Monday, March 23, 2015
Info!! Why I'm A Nervous Bull: Non-Confirmations Persist
my post service on transition patterns inwards the market, you'll run across why I'm a nervous bull. While the sectors are quite strong as well as we're seeing novel advance-decline business highs, the novel highs inwards the S&P 500 Index (SPY; occur chart) rest unconfirmed past times a number of sectors as well as indexes. While emerging markets (EEM; bottom chart) were the drivers for the rally since March, they lead keep failed to brand novel highs recently.
What suggests to me that this may non survive an isolated phenomenon is that commodities (DBC) lead keep besides failed to brand novel highs as well as commodity-related sectors (XLB, XLE) lead keep non confirmed novel highs inwards the S&P 500 Index. If increment as well as commodity need won't come upwards from the emerging nations, it is hard to believe that the slower growing developed markets volition sustain the bull.
Yet other non-confirmations come upwards from the number of stocks registering fresh 20- as well as 65-day highs. Those peaked inwards July as well as are notably lower during the recent marketplace position highs, suggesting that fewer issues are participating inwards the index strength. That's commonly non a recipe for ongoing marketplace position strength.
It besides raises the possibility that nosotros saw a momentum high inwards July, a rigid pullback concluding week, as well as straight off cost highs on lower participation. If this is, indeed, a larger timeframe transition blueprint inwards the making, nosotros should neglect at these highs as well as start a abrupt pullback that would lead keep us below the lows of concluding week.
While I stick alongside my short-term indicators, such every bit Cumulative TICK as well as Demand/Supply, as well as those are bullish, the larger motion-picture demonstrate non-confirmations piece of job out me nervous as well as fix to contrary views. We need to run across day-over-day forcefulness here, confirming the bull move. Expanding novel 20-day lows would survive an of import indication that all is non good for the bull. Expanding 20-day highs would survive of import back upwards for the bulls. As always, I'll survive updating indicators via Twitter (free; subscribe/follow here)
.
What suggests to me that this may non survive an isolated phenomenon is that commodities (DBC) lead keep besides failed to brand novel highs as well as commodity-related sectors (XLB, XLE) lead keep non confirmed novel highs inwards the S&P 500 Index. If increment as well as commodity need won't come upwards from the emerging nations, it is hard to believe that the slower growing developed markets volition sustain the bull.
Yet other non-confirmations come upwards from the number of stocks registering fresh 20- as well as 65-day highs. Those peaked inwards July as well as are notably lower during the recent marketplace position highs, suggesting that fewer issues are participating inwards the index strength. That's commonly non a recipe for ongoing marketplace position strength.
It besides raises the possibility that nosotros saw a momentum high inwards July, a rigid pullback concluding week, as well as straight off cost highs on lower participation. If this is, indeed, a larger timeframe transition blueprint inwards the making, nosotros should neglect at these highs as well as start a abrupt pullback that would lead keep us below the lows of concluding week.
While I stick alongside my short-term indicators, such every bit Cumulative TICK as well as Demand/Supply, as well as those are bullish, the larger motion-picture demonstrate non-confirmations piece of job out me nervous as well as fix to contrary views. We need to run across day-over-day forcefulness here, confirming the bull move. Expanding novel 20-day lows would survive an of import indication that all is non good for the bull. Expanding 20-day highs would survive of import back upwards for the bulls. As always, I'll survive updating indicators via Twitter (free; subscribe/follow here)
.
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Saturday, March 21, 2015
Info!! Finviz: Fantabulous Tools For Visualizing Stock Sector Performance
my before oestrus map post in addition to commented on the value of the oestrus maps in addition to marketplace position information institute on the FinViz site. Above nosotros come across a snapshot of only 2 sectors from a much larger map. Note how the stocks that are most highly weighted inwards the sectors accept the largest boxes. The boxes are shaded ruby-red if the stock is down; dark-green if up; in addition to grayness if neutral. The map allows a quick expect at the colors of each sector, but too is organized past times subsectors. This enables y'all to come across if forcefulness or weakness inside the sectors is to a greater extent than full general or mixed.
I volition accept to a greater extent than to country almost FinViz inwards an upcoming post. The value hither is inwards condensing a large total of information into a clear display that facilitates quick processing in addition to action.
.
I volition accept to a greater extent than to country almost FinViz inwards an upcoming post. The value hither is inwards condensing a large total of information into a clear display that facilitates quick processing in addition to action.
.
Friday, March 20, 2015
Info!! Reflections On Trading Processes
What is your trading process?
* How create y'all generate your best merchandise ideas?
* How create y'all acquire by opportunity almost effectively?
* How create y'all acquire by positions almost effectively to dice the almost out of merchandise ideas?
* How create y'all almost effectively acquire by yourself in addition to your emotions during trading?
* How create y'all stimulate for marketplace days almost effectively?
* How create y'all best review markets in addition to trading surgical operation for optimal learning?
What I abide by is that the traders who bring been successful over the long haul know the answers to these questions in addition to likewise bring really distinctive answers.
Like Toyota or UPS, they bring developed their own, unique processes that are both efficient in addition to effective. Success is a percentage of refining processes over fourth dimension in addition to becoming always to a greater extent than consistent inward next those processes.
If y'all *know* your processes, y'all tin to a greater extent than readily educate confidence inward them. Many times that is the departure betwixt making the skilful merchandise in addition to not; avoiding the bad merchandise in addition to not.
Half of the challenge of trading is finding your best practices; the other one-half is implementing them alongside fidelity in addition to consistency.
.
* How create y'all generate your best merchandise ideas?
* How create y'all acquire by opportunity almost effectively?
* How create y'all acquire by positions almost effectively to dice the almost out of merchandise ideas?
* How create y'all almost effectively acquire by yourself in addition to your emotions during trading?
* How create y'all stimulate for marketplace days almost effectively?
* How create y'all best review markets in addition to trading surgical operation for optimal learning?
What I abide by is that the traders who bring been successful over the long haul know the answers to these questions in addition to likewise bring really distinctive answers.
Like Toyota or UPS, they bring developed their own, unique processes that are both efficient in addition to effective. Success is a percentage of refining processes over fourth dimension in addition to becoming always to a greater extent than consistent inward next those processes.
If y'all *know* your processes, y'all tin to a greater extent than readily educate confidence inward them. Many times that is the departure betwixt making the skilful merchandise in addition to not; avoiding the bad merchandise in addition to not.
Half of the challenge of trading is finding your best practices; the other one-half is implementing them alongside fidelity in addition to consistency.
.
Thursday, March 19, 2015
Info!! Level Briefing For August 26Th
* MARKET THEMES FROM WEDNESDAY: We registered an within hateful solar daytime today, alongside lower toll highs together with higher toll lows relative to Tuesday. This sustains us inwards a multi-day trading range. During the range, we've seen the U.S.A. of America dollar merchandise higher vs. the euro together with weakness inwards aureate together with oil, both of which unopen off their lows. We've likewise seen a drib inwards 10-year Treasury yields, consistent alongside the topic of earnings taking inwards lead chances trades. New 20-day highs across the NYSE, NASDAQ, together with ASE brutal to 802; novel lows were 248. The slap-up bulk of stocks inwards my handbasket decease on to merchandise inwards short-term uptrends. The longer nosotros remain inwards the trading range, the to a greater extent than we're accepting value at the higher toll levels, which is consistent alongside a continuation of the bull deed in spite of nagging non-confirmations. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 drib below the toll lows of final calendar week would clearly negate that bullish scenario. I volition move updating indicator readings equally green via Twitter (seasonal adjustments of economical data.
.
.
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
Info!! Archive Link For Best Practices Webinar Alongside Futurepath Trading
Many thank you lot 1 time once to a greater extent than to Damon Pavlatos together with FuturePath Trading for hosting my recent webinar on best practices for traders. I know many traders could non attend the alive event; thank you lot to FuturePath, the archived presentation is at 1 time available. Alternatively, you lot tin abide by the link on the correct side of FuturePath's domicile page. As always, I appreciate the interest. I await frontwards to the side yesteryear side gratuitous webinar, hosted yesteryear IOAMT. I'll convey registration information posted shortly. Brett
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Info!! Corporate Bonds: Property Flat Review
grains, industrial metals, Treasury debt, as well as crude oil, gold, as well as the States of America dollar. In this look, nosotros volition examine States of America corporate bonds: investment flat (LQD; pinnacle chart) as well as high yield (JNK; bottom chart).
Note that bond prices plunged during the belatedly 2008 crisis, equally investors fled riskier debt as well as sought rubber haven inwards Treasury instruments. Interestingly, 1 order for the marketplace bottom inwards March was the fact that nosotros made novel lows inwards high yield bond prices, but non investment grade.
Since that time, investment flat bonds accept steadily moved higher, retracing much of their refuse from 2008. High yield bonds accept retraced alone a subdivision of their sum declines, but complaint that their percent arrive at from the March lows has been higher than that for investment flat bonds. This, similar the rally inwards emerging marketplace equities, is an illustration of how nosotros accept seen riskier assets atomic number 82 the agency during the 2009 recovery.
Most recently, the novel highs inwards LQD accept non been confirmed past times JNK. That is precisely just about other 1 of the non-confirmations on my radar, equally riskier assets accept of late underperformed safer ones. I am watching these intermarket themes closely to encounter if the dynamics of the marketplace recovery are changing or if this is only an August suspension that refreshes the gamble rally.
.
Note that bond prices plunged during the belatedly 2008 crisis, equally investors fled riskier debt as well as sought rubber haven inwards Treasury instruments. Interestingly, 1 order for the marketplace bottom inwards March was the fact that nosotros made novel lows inwards high yield bond prices, but non investment grade.
Since that time, investment flat bonds accept steadily moved higher, retracing much of their refuse from 2008. High yield bonds accept retraced alone a subdivision of their sum declines, but complaint that their percent arrive at from the March lows has been higher than that for investment flat bonds. This, similar the rally inwards emerging marketplace equities, is an illustration of how nosotros accept seen riskier assets atomic number 82 the agency during the 2009 recovery.
Most recently, the novel highs inwards LQD accept non been confirmed past times JNK. That is precisely just about other 1 of the non-confirmations on my radar, equally riskier assets accept of late underperformed safer ones. I am watching these intermarket themes closely to encounter if the dynamics of the marketplace recovery are changing or if this is only an August suspension that refreshes the gamble rally.
.
Monday, March 16, 2015
Sunday, March 15, 2015
Info!! A Quick Await At Sector Themes
some interesting features on the FinViz site; every bit a reader perceptively noted, roughly other useful characteristic is its tracking of S&P 500 sector groups inward existent time.
Above nosotros run into a i 24-hour interval together with i calendar week tracking for the groups. Note how "Basic Materials", which inward their system includes both oil-related together with other raw materials stocks, has been lagging inward performance, mirroring commodity weakness. That commodity weakness, inward turn, has been sensitive to lagging functioning inward emerging marketplace stocks together with currencies.
I'm watching this topic carefully, every bit the emerging marketplace story--and aggressive emerging marketplace stimulus--has led the direct chances rally since March.
.
Above nosotros run into a i 24-hour interval together with i calendar week tracking for the groups. Note how "Basic Materials", which inward their system includes both oil-related together with other raw materials stocks, has been lagging inward performance, mirroring commodity weakness. That commodity weakness, inward turn, has been sensitive to lagging functioning inward emerging marketplace stocks together with currencies.
I'm watching this topic carefully, every bit the emerging marketplace story--and aggressive emerging marketplace stimulus--has led the direct chances rally since March.
.
Saturday, March 14, 2015
Info!! A Await At The Aussie Dollar As Well As What It Mightiness Rank Us Nearly Stocks





Another squeamish graphic from FinViz: Note how, amid the actively traded currencies, the marketplace position recovery has been led yesteryear New Zealand together with Commonwealth of Australia vs. the U.S. dollar (top chart). The currencies of the resources producing countries, every bit a whole, accept fared ameliorate than those of the resources consumers; countries nigh affected yesteryear economical crisis together with ascent debt levels accept too seen their currencies lag.
But it turns out that AUD/USD is non a bad proxy for opportunity appetite inwards the recent market. If you lot depository fiscal establishment annotation the 2d nautical chart from the bottom, you'll encounter that AUD dropped precipitously during the marketplace position crisis, every bit investors sought the security haven of USD. While stocks made their bottom inwards March, AUD held its slow 2008 lows together with proceeded higher, amongst peaks about corresponding to those inwards stocks: a relatively apartment corrective catamenia into early on July, a force to novel highs, together with nigh latterly rangebound trade.
Which is why, when I saw stocks (ES futures; 2d nautical chart from top) intermission below their multiday attain this morning, I was especially interested to encounter a smart snapback rally inwards AUD/USD (third nautical chart from top). Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 five-minute nautical chart that's a piffling broader (bottom chart) shows that AUD/USD genuinely moved nicely inwards a higher house yesterday's highs.
These are the kinds of piffling tells I await for inwards handicapping whether opportunity assets volition last coming dorsum into favor vs. rolling over. I idea the snapback inwards stocks, led yesteryear currency snapbacks vs. USD, was a indicate inwards favor of the equity bulls.
.
Friday, March 13, 2015
Info!! Quick Expect At Gold: Compressed Trading Range
sustain weakness inward USD. As a surrogate currency too possible beneficiary of a reflationary/inflationary outlook, golden could cash inward one's chips quite a storey on a pause inward a higher house $1000/oz.
.
.
Thursday, March 12, 2015
Info!! Eventide Briefing For August 27Th
* MARKET THEMES FOR THURSDAY: Early weakness led to a breakout below recent multiday highs, earlier notable weakness inwards USD led a rally inwards jeopardy assets, amongst rebound forcefulness inwards gold, oil, together with stocks. It was however simply about other illustration inwards which weakness was stopped dead inwards its tracks past times aggressive buying, creating a distinctive toll rejection. We saw entirely 739 20-day highs against 348 lows, together with momentum continued to live skewed to the downside, amongst Supply exceeding Demand. (I volition post the lastly numbers tomorrow earlier the opened upwards via Twitter; Stocks finding support at their 20-day moving averages;
-- Dividend stocks to hedge against failing Social Security system;
-- Self employed workers work the most.
.
-- Dividend stocks to hedge against failing Social Security system;
-- Self employed workers work the most.
.
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Info!! Tracking Forex Markets Amongst Currency Futures Data

I sometimes ask heed reluctance from traders to wade into currency markets because they don't offering the same sort of book data that nosotros detect inward stocks. While that may last truthful for the spot market, currency futures merchandise inward such a correlated agency amongst their cash counterparts--and receive got picked upward sufficient trader interest--that they tin sack last viewed exactly similar whatsoever futures market.
Above I've taken my Market Delta ES nautical chart Definition together with but inserted EUR/USD e-mini futures (6E). This is showing us early on morn merchandise amongst 30-minute bars. Note how nosotros are edifice book (accepting value) at higher prices during the morn (side histogram), amongst fairly evenly distributed book at the bid vs. offering (bottom histogram). So far, we've been oscillating unopen to VWAP (red line) inward a trading range.
Note the transition blueprint early on inward the morning, equally nosotros had a drib to momentum lows on potent selling that hence dried upward over the adjacent hour, giving us a cost low, together with hence a reversal. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 non unlike reversal occurred afterward inward the morning, leading me to conclude that the marketplace is shutting off merchandise to the downside together with facilitating merchandise higher. That, of course, has implications for stocks, equally it was the weak dollar that kicked off yesterday's reversal of weakness. Continued weakness inward the dollar (e.g., euro strength) is currently supporting stocks inward premarket trade.
.
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Info!! Morn Briefing For August 28Th: Dorsum Inward The Range


Yesterday nosotros saw stocks (ES futures, happen chart) essay to brand novel multiday lows, entirely to snap dorsum into their range. Today nosotros come across the reverse, every bit an endeavour to produce got out the highs from 8/25 was firmly rejected on aggressive selling (bottom chart). As is to a greater extent than oftentimes than non the case, the inability to sustain the novel highs targeted the day's VWAP every bit an initial downside objective together with the midpoint of the multiday attain every bit a to a greater extent than distant objective. Stock sectors are uniformly downward from their opening prices, indicating breadth to the rejection of higher prices. First one-half hr book came inward at pretty average levels; I'll hold upward watching for signs of a slowdown inward book to handicap the odds of staying inward the overnight attain (vs. breaking downward farther into the multiday range).
.
Monday, March 9, 2015
Info!! Utility Stocks: Looking For Expert Relative Yield

As Dave Kansas points out inward his recent article, stock dividends occupation brand a difference, especially when other forms of yield--such every bit Treasuries--are offering paltry returns. Dave makes the splendid indicate that dividends are typically taxed at lower rates than bond income, which could assistance back upwards the prices of higher-yielding equities.
Of the sectors tracked past times FinViz (click above), utilities present upwards alongside the highest yields. While they may non last sexy for their beta (they're upwards to a greater extent than or less 30% for the past times 6 months vs. 50% for many of the other sectors), they may discovery prissy floors every bit those nearing retirement seek relatively rubber yield.
.
Sunday, March 8, 2015
Info!! Midday Briefing For August 28Th: Bulls Non Feelin' It


2:10 PM CT - I've added the Market Delta nautical chart inward a higher house to demo how nosotros are edifice book at lower cost levels during the afternoon, accepting value below the day's VWAP. As long every bit that remains the case, I'd live on looking for an eventual exam of the Th lows. I lead hold a small-scale pioneer brusque seat inward the S&P that I'll live on blogging nearly later.
The bulls but aren't feelin' it. I demo that we've made nearly thou novel 20-day highs across the NYSE, NASDAQ, in addition to ASE on a hateful solar daytime where ES (chart above) moved to marginal bull highs. The rally but keeps thinning out inward damage of participation: non-confirmations, from emerging markets to commodities, proceed to abound.
We sold off sharply next the early on forcefulness and, since then, book at the marketplace seat bid (bottom histogram) has swamped book at the offer. We've too moved convincingly below VWAP (red line) in addition to the book bulge some 1030 (side histogram).
This sets us upward inward a real distinctive attain betwixt the lows that nosotros rejected yesterday in addition to the highs that we've rejected today. The weakening participation concerns me; I'm a seller on forcefulness every bit long every bit bounces cannot take/keep us inward a higher house VWAP in addition to that 1030 level.
.
Saturday, March 7, 2015
Info!! Why Is Trin (Arms Index) Together With Thence Low?
A few readers convey asked this question, noting recent depression TRIN values. (TRIN is besides known equally the ARMS Index). Of course, what this agency is that a high proportion of daily trading book has been concentrated inward ascent stocks.
But is TRIN low?
To address this, I looked at the median 20-day TRIN values going dorsum to 2000. I used the median because the TRIN ratio is constructed inward such a way that you lot tin larn much larger readings inward a higher house 1.0 than below. With the median, I wanted to capture whether the average solar daytime was showing greater concentration of book to the winning or losing stocks.
Guess what? The electrical current 20-day median TRIN is the lowest value we've seen since 2000 at approximately .75.
I'm non precisely certainly what to brand of that. What I tin order you lot alongside certainty is that ii of the by historical occasions inward which we've had 20-day cost highs too ultra depression median 20-day TRIN readings convey been March, 2000 too like shooting fish in a barrel May/early June, 2007. Both corresponded to a greater extent than or less to bull marketplace peaks.
The ultra depression TRIN seemed to capture frothiness inward those markets: lots of book going into a few speculative, ascent issues. Might nosotros hold out seeing the same matter alongside the recent pops inward such depression priced stocks equally AIG, C, FNM, FRE, CIT, too BAC? I notation that virtually 2 billion of NYSE book was concentrated inward C, FNM, too FRE alone. Seems similar lots of coin chasing low-priced volatile fiscal stocks.
Just similar lots of coin chasing volatile tech stocks or emerging marketplace stocks. Not something you'd come across at marketplace bottoms. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 combat of a catch caveat for this marketplace shrink.
.
But is TRIN low?
To address this, I looked at the median 20-day TRIN values going dorsum to 2000. I used the median because the TRIN ratio is constructed inward such a way that you lot tin larn much larger readings inward a higher house 1.0 than below. With the median, I wanted to capture whether the average solar daytime was showing greater concentration of book to the winning or losing stocks.
Guess what? The electrical current 20-day median TRIN is the lowest value we've seen since 2000 at approximately .75.
I'm non precisely certainly what to brand of that. What I tin order you lot alongside certainty is that ii of the by historical occasions inward which we've had 20-day cost highs too ultra depression median 20-day TRIN readings convey been March, 2000 too like shooting fish in a barrel May/early June, 2007. Both corresponded to a greater extent than or less to bull marketplace peaks.
The ultra depression TRIN seemed to capture frothiness inward those markets: lots of book going into a few speculative, ascent issues. Might nosotros hold out seeing the same matter alongside the recent pops inward such depression priced stocks equally AIG, C, FNM, FRE, CIT, too BAC? I notation that virtually 2 billion of NYSE book was concentrated inward C, FNM, too FRE alone. Seems similar lots of coin chasing low-priced volatile fiscal stocks.
Just similar lots of coin chasing volatile tech stocks or emerging marketplace stocks. Not something you'd come across at marketplace bottoms. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 combat of a catch caveat for this marketplace shrink.
.
Friday, March 6, 2015
Info!! The Recent Concentration Of Book Inward Fiscal Stocks: Coordinated Upper-Case Missive Of The Alphabet Infusion?
I only wanted to add together some coloring to my recent postal service regarding why the NYSE TRIN indicator mightiness hold upwardly broken. Reader Brian adds a really interesting perspective, indicating that he's watched TRIN together with C adjacent together with has seen a really rigid correlation. When C flips from upwardly to downwards (or vice versa), at that topographic point is a corresponding huge displace inwards TRIN. This could exclusively hold upwardly the illustration if a stock similar C comprised a large part of amount NYSE volume, which indeed seems to hold upwardly the case, as noted yesteryear The Big Picture blog.
Above I took C, FNM, together with FRE together with expressed their *composite* volumes (e.g., the volumes transacted across all exchanges) equally a fraction of NYSE volume. What nosotros run into is that, early on inwards 2007, those 3 stocks accounted for exclusively 1-3% of NYSE volume. During the fiscal crisis of slow 2008 together with over again equally the marketplace position was bottoming inwards early on 2009, that ratio skyrocked to good over 50%.
Recently, however, the book inwards these 3 stocks has hitting astronomical levels relative to amount NYSE trading, equally all 3 accept made phenomenal percent gains during August. Indeed, the composite book of these 3 stocks lone has lately doubled amount NYSE volume. If nosotros await at only the NYSE trading of these firms, they are accounting for almost 40% of NYSE volume. It is non surprising that Brian would notice TRIN flipping upwardly together with downwards equally these stocks modify direction.
Again, the enquiry is what all this means. There is no way that mom together with popular trader together with investor are involved inwards whatever meaningful way inwards generating these sort of daily trading volumes. Nor are proprietary trading shops capable of generating volumes that transcend those of the entire New York Stock Exchange. While I accept no dubiety that the algorithmic merchandise about the marketplace position is participating inwards this movement, the directionality of the involvement suggests that large fiscal institutions are systematically buying the beaten-up shares of the poster children for TARP: C, FNM, FRE, AIG, together with the like.
It is worth noting inwards this regard that other major (healthy) fiscal firms, such equally GS together with JPM, accept seen no such surge inwards their book or their trading prices.
My best guess? We're seeing a massive infusion of uppercase into really troubled fiscal institutions, no dubiety aided yesteryear curt roofing together with the participation of programme traders together with proprietary daytrading firms. Where is the uppercase coming from? Why has it poured inwards then all of a precipitous (the actually large infusions began inwards early on August)? Why is it coming inwards at such a stride that it is dominating NYSE volume? Zero Hedge rightly wonders why this hasn't triggered alarms at the exchange. And why is it happening alongside exclusively the weakest fiscal institutions?
If yous were the authorities together with yous saw that these institutions were on the verge of a major fail, alongside billions of taxpayer dollars at risk, I'm non certain you'd denote that to the world. Nor, at this betoken politically, could yous enquire for yet some other bailout package. But yous would exclusively pour coin into those stocks at a frantic stride (capable of detection) if yous perceived a dire necessitate for the capital.
I'm non inclined toward conspiracy theories, but it's hard to imagine a scenario inwards which this is non a (frighteningly necessary) coordinated uppercase infusion, alongside taxpayer dollars ultimately at function inwards fiscal markets.
.
Thursday, March 5, 2015
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
Info!! Novel Views For A Saturday Eve
* What's working inward pairs trading;
* How cool is this? AIG soaring? The same question powerfulness locomote asked for a release of TARP recipients.
.
* How cool is this? AIG soaring? The same question powerfulness locomote asked for a release of TARP recipients.
.
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
Monday, March 2, 2015
Info!! To A Greater Extent Than On The Massive Trading Volumes Inwards Troubled Fiscal Stocks
This floor began for me alongside uncomplicated reader inquiries concerning a stock marketplace indicator called TRIN and their perceptions that TRIN was "broken". For the uninitiated, TRIN assesses the proportion of stock telephone substitution book that is going to advancing stocks to the book attributable to declining issues. When TRIN is below 1.0, it agency that book is relatively concentrated inwards rising shares; higher upwards 1.0 agency that book is concentrated inwards declining stocks.
TRIN appeared to move broken because nosotros were getting huge swings inwards its values from minute to minute inwards the market. It would swing wildly, sometimes going far higher upwards 1.0 too sometimes far below. I pointed out that, from a purely mathematical advantage point, this could exclusively give off if a disproportionate part of NYSE book was occurring inwards i or a handful of stocks.
Further enquiry revealed that this was, indeed, the case: I institute that, non exclusively were the trading volumes of such stocks equally C, AIG, FNM, too FRE elevated, attributable to short-covering. "When large numbers of curt sellers unopen their positions yesteryear buying shares at the same time, the stocks involved tin register explosive - too oft inexplicable - gains," the Financial Times article explains.
On the surface, this makes sense. The S.E.C. has been toying alongside the sentiment of reinstated curbs on curt selling, too this could spark curt roofing amidst fiscal firms. Indeed, according to high frequency, algorithmic trading. This was likewise As a federal prosecutor noted when at that spot was an alleged theft of some of these programs, however, such technology scientific discipline tin "manipulate markets inwards unfair ways".
Are these bailout beneficiaries directly enjoying the fruits of marketplace manipulations? I don't know the reply to that, but I notice it interesting that none of the principals of the firms appears to care. According to a recent article, the chair of Freddie Mac indicated that he had "no idea" what these trading volumes were all about. The article likewise noted that, "Representatives for Fannie, the SEC, AIG, FINRA too the NYSE declined to comment. Spokeswomen for Treasury, which owns most of AIG, too the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which holds Fannie too Freddie inwards conservatorship, likewise wouldn't comment."
Somehow I remember if the tables were turned too huge volumes were beingness executed on the *short* side to drib the part values of these companies, nosotros would take away heed a renewed hue too shout out most manipulated markets too the require to curb rapacious curt sellers. When at that spot is unprecedented book lifting the shares of seemingly worthless companies inwards a way that could exclusively move accomplished yesteryear the directional programming of trading systems, companionship officials too fiscal regulators seem to move soundless lambs.
I don't convey answers to many of these puzzling observations; I practice recognize skillful questions worthy of inquiry. If we're non getting comment from regime too the firms themselves, where is the investigative fiscal press? Bland assurances that we're simply seeing heightened curt roofing too daytrading action simply don't transcend muster.
I volition move tracking this floor during the calendar week ahead; follow my tweets for updates.
Disclosure: I practice non concur long or curt positions inwards whatsoever of the higher upwards mentioned stocks too convey non held positions inwards whatsoever of them during 2008 or 2009.
.
TRIN appeared to move broken because nosotros were getting huge swings inwards its values from minute to minute inwards the market. It would swing wildly, sometimes going far higher upwards 1.0 too sometimes far below. I pointed out that, from a purely mathematical advantage point, this could exclusively give off if a disproportionate part of NYSE book was occurring inwards i or a handful of stocks.
Further enquiry revealed that this was, indeed, the case: I institute that, non exclusively were the trading volumes of such stocks equally C, AIG, FNM, too FRE elevated, attributable to short-covering. "When large numbers of curt sellers unopen their positions yesteryear buying shares at the same time, the stocks involved tin register explosive - too oft inexplicable - gains," the Financial Times article explains.
On the surface, this makes sense. The S.E.C. has been toying alongside the sentiment of reinstated curbs on curt selling, too this could spark curt roofing amidst fiscal firms. Indeed, according to high frequency, algorithmic trading. This was likewise As a federal prosecutor noted when at that spot was an alleged theft of some of these programs, however, such technology scientific discipline tin "manipulate markets inwards unfair ways".
Are these bailout beneficiaries directly enjoying the fruits of marketplace manipulations? I don't know the reply to that, but I notice it interesting that none of the principals of the firms appears to care. According to a recent article, the chair of Freddie Mac indicated that he had "no idea" what these trading volumes were all about. The article likewise noted that, "Representatives for Fannie, the SEC, AIG, FINRA too the NYSE declined to comment. Spokeswomen for Treasury, which owns most of AIG, too the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which holds Fannie too Freddie inwards conservatorship, likewise wouldn't comment."
Somehow I remember if the tables were turned too huge volumes were beingness executed on the *short* side to drib the part values of these companies, nosotros would take away heed a renewed hue too shout out most manipulated markets too the require to curb rapacious curt sellers. When at that spot is unprecedented book lifting the shares of seemingly worthless companies inwards a way that could exclusively move accomplished yesteryear the directional programming of trading systems, companionship officials too fiscal regulators seem to move soundless lambs.
I don't convey answers to many of these puzzling observations; I practice recognize skillful questions worthy of inquiry. If we're non getting comment from regime too the firms themselves, where is the investigative fiscal press? Bland assurances that we're simply seeing heightened curt roofing too daytrading action simply don't transcend muster.
I volition move tracking this floor during the calendar week ahead; follow my tweets for updates.
Disclosure: I practice non concur long or curt positions inwards whatsoever of the higher upwards mentioned stocks too convey non held positions inwards whatsoever of them during 2008 or 2009.
.
Sunday, March 1, 2015
Info!! Sector Update For August 30Th
Last week's sector update emphasized the short-term trending forcefulness across all sectors, exactly too noted divergences alongside observe to the disclose of stocks registering novel highs. I expected that difference to survive resolved 1 agency or to a greater extent than or less other this by week, exactly the province of affairs is really much the same: Technical Strength (a proprietary short-term stair out of trending) remains positive across sectors, exactly the market's forcefulness is built upon a narrowing base.
As nosotros tin run across from the nautical chart above, all viii major S&P 500 sectors that I follow are trading inwards short-term uptrends, though readings for the nigh business office are weaker than they were at final reading. The economically sensitive industrial, energy, as well as consumer discretionary sectors are notably strong; the to a greater extent than defensive wellness tending as well as consumer staples groups are weaker. Interestingly, we're seeing less bullish elbow grease amid raw materials stocks, reflecting continuing non-confirmations of stock marketplace highs amid such commodities every bit crude oil as well as industrial metals.
Here's how the sector readings sort upwardly every bit of Friday's close:
At final reading (which I update each morning time earlier the marketplace opened upwardly via Twitter; the persistent divergences inwards the market. Thus far the marketplace has been managing to brand fresh toll highs calendar week over week, as well as nosotros bespeak to observe that, fifty-fifty every bit nosotros keep an opened upwardly hear to the possibilities of reversal.
.
As nosotros tin run across from the nautical chart above, all viii major S&P 500 sectors that I follow are trading inwards short-term uptrends, though readings for the nigh business office are weaker than they were at final reading. The economically sensitive industrial, energy, as well as consumer discretionary sectors are notably strong; the to a greater extent than defensive wellness tending as well as consumer staples groups are weaker. Interestingly, we're seeing less bullish elbow grease amid raw materials stocks, reflecting continuing non-confirmations of stock marketplace highs amid such commodities every bit crude oil as well as industrial metals.
Here's how the sector readings sort upwardly every bit of Friday's close:
MATERIALS: 220
INDUSTRIAL: 380
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: 360
CONSUMER STAPLES: 200
ENERGY: 400
HEALTH CARE: 220
FINANCIAL: 320
TECHNOLOGY: 300
INDUSTRIAL: 380
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: 360
CONSUMER STAPLES: 200
ENERGY: 400
HEALTH CARE: 220
FINANCIAL: 320
TECHNOLOGY: 300
At final reading (which I update each morning time earlier the marketplace opened upwardly via Twitter; the persistent divergences inwards the market. Thus far the marketplace has been managing to brand fresh toll highs calendar week over week, as well as nosotros bespeak to observe that, fifty-fifty every bit nosotros keep an opened upwardly hear to the possibilities of reversal.
.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)