I lately noted that I volition hold upwards offering a gratis webinar this calendar week sponsored past times the Institute of Auction Market Theory (IOAMT). The session volition indeed hold upwards held this Wednesday, September 2nd, after the marketplace unopen at 3:30 PM Central Time. The session volition focus on specific psychological self-help techniques that traders tin flame role for themselves to assist their performance. It volition hold upwards an hr long session amongst fourth dimension for Q&A.
There is a 500-person restrain for registration; I'm pretty certain this volition fill upwards up quickly. So, if you lot tin flame buy the farm inwards as well as are interested, delight accept the fourth dimension to register at this site.
I too honor that IOAMT is offering a $50 discount for webinar attendees who would similar to attend their upcoming week-long workshop. They too offering a five-day gratis trial to their existent fourth dimension trading room, where Bill Duryea tracks markets as well as posts his trades, illustrating the role of Market Profile theory as well as technique.
Hope to run across you lot at the webinar! If you lot can't brand it, I'm told that IOAMT volition hold upwards archiving the session as well as posting a link presently afterward. Many cheers to Bill as well as Michelle for helping pose this together.
.
Saturday, February 28, 2015
Friday, February 27, 2015
Info!! Level Briefing For August 30Th
* MARKET THEMES FROM FRIDAY: We saw stocks brand a marginal novel bull marketplace high early on inwards morn merchandise earlier selling off difficult inwards the morn too rebounding weakly inwards the afternoon. The rejection of the cost highs, combined amongst the divergences at the marketplace peak, led me to conduct maintain a modest curt grade inwards the S&P 500 Index too concur it over the weekend. This is non intended equally a short-term merchandise (but does conduct maintain a relatively tight stop); I volition hold upwards blogging close the grade early on this coming week. With the drib inwards stocks, nosotros equally good saw firming of the U.S.A. dollar too some selling inwards fossil oil too gold, though the latter was non peculiarly pronounced. In premarket trade, Nippon started its twenty-four hr catamenia higher on the election news, simply stock index futures inwards the U.S.A. conduct maintain pulled dorsum from early on strength. H5N1 motion below Friday's lows would target the 8/27 lows roughly 1015 inwards the ES contract.
* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 3:00 AM CT - Italy, retail sales; 4:00 AM CT - Italy, CPI; EU, consumer prices; 7:30 AM CT - Canada, GDP.
* EARNINGS: BTGG, CMM, JAVA (before the open); BNHNA, CFI, FMCN, SINA (after open).
* WORTH READING:
-- Registration info for Wednesday's costless trading psychology webinar;
-- Provocative thoughts close ETF update too marketplace view;
-- Nice investigation of how marketplace trades later fake downside breakout;
-- FDIC taking on banking concern losses;
-- Stocks showing the highest curt interest.
.
* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 3:00 AM CT - Italy, retail sales; 4:00 AM CT - Italy, CPI; EU, consumer prices; 7:30 AM CT - Canada, GDP.
* EARNINGS: BTGG, CMM, JAVA (before the open); BNHNA, CFI, FMCN, SINA (after open).
* WORTH READING:
-- Registration info for Wednesday's costless trading psychology webinar;
-- Provocative thoughts close ETF update too marketplace view;
-- Nice investigation of how marketplace trades later fake downside breakout;
-- FDIC taking on banking concern losses;
-- Stocks showing the highest curt interest.
.
Thursday, February 26, 2015
Info!! Volatility-Adjusted Cost Targets For Swing Trading
As background for this post, I recommend that you lot review the posts on swing trading amongst weekly toll targets together with swing trading amongst weekly pin levels.
I lately wrote on the theme of how daytrading was offering express chance sets, peculiarly for those who accept been trading the stock marketplace indexes. The argue for this is that an increasing proportion of full index drive has been initiated overseas. Those who closed their positions out past times the halt of the twenty-four hours detect themselves missing prissy marketplace moves that they mightiness accept seen coming.
Indeed, many of the daytraders who I function amongst together with listen from who are doing good this twelvemonth are non trading the indexes. Instead, they accept found creative ways of finding stocks together with sectors that offering first-class intraday movement, trends, together with reversals.
Readers are aware that, each morning time earlier the marketplace open, I lay out proprietary daily toll targets for the S&P 500 Index (SPY). These are volatility adjusted, together with then that expectations of drive reverberate the recent volatility of the market. Each twenty-four hours in that location is a pin level, which is an approximation of the day's average trading toll together with in that location are iii upside targets (R1, R2, R3) together with iii downside targets (S1, S2, S3). Going dorsum to the twelvemonth 2000, nosotros detect that near 70% of all trading days behave upon their prior day's pivot; 70% volition behave upon R1 or S1; 50% volition hitting R2 or S2; together with 33% volition achieve R3 or S3. (mentioned on Friday that I had established a pocket-size curt seat inward the S&P 500 Index later on nosotros rejected an examine to brand novel toll highs amidst numerous divergences. With an entry of 103.19 on this swing trade, I'm looking for a displace to at to the lowest degree 100.63, which would lay us dorsum into the early on August trading range.
So what is my halt loss point? On Friday, I determined that I would halt out if nosotros made novel toll highs. That lay the halt at 104.35. Note that today's R1 grade is 104.24. If nosotros are indeed going to locomote heading lower, nosotros should non locomote taking out R1 today. That agency that the day's R1 grade acts every bit a natural halt loss for the merchandise conceptualized on the swing fourth dimension frame. That also agency that my merchandise targeting (at minimum) the weekly S1 together with stopping out at the daily R1 has a favorable risk/reward profile.
Thus far the merchandise has moved my way; authorities notation how I would accept lost a prissy slice of drive had I waited until the adjacent twenty-four hours to execute my thought every bit a daytrade. To locomote sure, swing trades volition ship a higher volatility of returns than trades executed on a twenty-four hours timeframe; the way to arrange for that volatility is precisely to size swing trades smaller than twenty-four hours ones, together with then that besides much of your portfolio is non exposed to the higher peril of the longer asset period. This is a far ameliorate strategy than placing stops besides roughly entry points.
With the daily together with weekly levels, I detect that I accept a rational dry reason for placing stops together with targets, together with that helps me stick to those. Starting adjacent week, I volition locomote posting the weekly SPY toll targets earlier the Mon opened upward via Twitter.
.
I lately wrote on the theme of how daytrading was offering express chance sets, peculiarly for those who accept been trading the stock marketplace indexes. The argue for this is that an increasing proportion of full index drive has been initiated overseas. Those who closed their positions out past times the halt of the twenty-four hours detect themselves missing prissy marketplace moves that they mightiness accept seen coming.
Indeed, many of the daytraders who I function amongst together with listen from who are doing good this twelvemonth are non trading the indexes. Instead, they accept found creative ways of finding stocks together with sectors that offering first-class intraday movement, trends, together with reversals.
Readers are aware that, each morning time earlier the marketplace open, I lay out proprietary daily toll targets for the S&P 500 Index (SPY). These are volatility adjusted, together with then that expectations of drive reverberate the recent volatility of the market. Each twenty-four hours in that location is a pin level, which is an approximation of the day's average trading toll together with in that location are iii upside targets (R1, R2, R3) together with iii downside targets (S1, S2, S3). Going dorsum to the twelvemonth 2000, nosotros detect that near 70% of all trading days behave upon their prior day's pivot; 70% volition behave upon R1 or S1; 50% volition hitting R2 or S2; together with 33% volition achieve R3 or S3. (mentioned on Friday that I had established a pocket-size curt seat inward the S&P 500 Index later on nosotros rejected an examine to brand novel toll highs amidst numerous divergences. With an entry of 103.19 on this swing trade, I'm looking for a displace to at to the lowest degree 100.63, which would lay us dorsum into the early on August trading range.
So what is my halt loss point? On Friday, I determined that I would halt out if nosotros made novel toll highs. That lay the halt at 104.35. Note that today's R1 grade is 104.24. If nosotros are indeed going to locomote heading lower, nosotros should non locomote taking out R1 today. That agency that the day's R1 grade acts every bit a natural halt loss for the merchandise conceptualized on the swing fourth dimension frame. That also agency that my merchandise targeting (at minimum) the weekly S1 together with stopping out at the daily R1 has a favorable risk/reward profile.
Thus far the merchandise has moved my way; authorities notation how I would accept lost a prissy slice of drive had I waited until the adjacent twenty-four hours to execute my thought every bit a daytrade. To locomote sure, swing trades volition ship a higher volatility of returns than trades executed on a twenty-four hours timeframe; the way to arrange for that volatility is precisely to size swing trades smaller than twenty-four hours ones, together with then that besides much of your portfolio is non exposed to the higher peril of the longer asset period. This is a far ameliorate strategy than placing stops besides roughly entry points.
With the daily together with weekly levels, I detect that I accept a rational dry reason for placing stops together with targets, together with that helps me stick to those. Starting adjacent week, I volition locomote posting the weekly SPY toll targets earlier the Mon opened upward via Twitter.
.
Wednesday, February 25, 2015
Info!! Managing Your Trades
My recent shipping service illustrated how I mean value virtually net turn a profit targets as well as destination loss levels. Once yous convey those nailed down, it is much easier to mean value virtually the management of your positions.
Among the merchandise management issues of import to mean value through are:
* When, if at all, yous motion your stops as well as targets;
* When, if at all, to add together to your positions or kickoff scaling out of them;
* When, if at all, to hedge positions.
I to a greater extent than oft than non convey works life that, especially amidst portfolio managers, merchandise management accounts for every bit much profitability every bit the character of the initial merchandise ideas. I also abide by that, amidst proprietary daytraders, much coin is lost through misfortunate merchandise management, every bit traders add together to positions at the incorrect times or scale out of them likewise quickly.
The importance of merchandise management comes from the period of time of data that occurs *while the merchandise is on*. If you're attuned to that information, it tin aid yous attain upward one's hear whether to larn but about aggressive over fourth dimension yesteryear moving stops as well as targets and/or scaling in/out of positions yesteryear adjusting your size.
If yous think of your merchandise every bit a examination of your marketplace hypothesis, yous constantly desire to locomote thinking virtually whether the most recent marketplace activeness is confirming or disconfirming your expectations. It is when you're correct as well as run across that the marketplace is proving yous correct that yous tin best press your advantage.
I abide by it is peculiarly helpful to convey explicit rules to assist merchandise management. I volition offering a few of my ain in the Midweek seminar as well as inwards time to come posts.
.
Among the merchandise management issues of import to mean value through are:
* When, if at all, yous motion your stops as well as targets;
* When, if at all, to add together to your positions or kickoff scaling out of them;
* When, if at all, to hedge positions.
I to a greater extent than oft than non convey works life that, especially amidst portfolio managers, merchandise management accounts for every bit much profitability every bit the character of the initial merchandise ideas. I also abide by that, amidst proprietary daytraders, much coin is lost through misfortunate merchandise management, every bit traders add together to positions at the incorrect times or scale out of them likewise quickly.
The importance of merchandise management comes from the period of time of data that occurs *while the merchandise is on*. If you're attuned to that information, it tin aid yous attain upward one's hear whether to larn but about aggressive over fourth dimension yesteryear moving stops as well as targets and/or scaling in/out of positions yesteryear adjusting your size.
If yous think of your merchandise every bit a examination of your marketplace hypothesis, yous constantly desire to locomote thinking virtually whether the most recent marketplace activeness is confirming or disconfirming your expectations. It is when you're correct as well as run across that the marketplace is proving yous correct that yous tin best press your advantage.
I abide by it is peculiarly helpful to convey explicit rules to assist merchandise management. I volition offering a few of my ain in the Midweek seminar as well as inwards time to come posts.
.
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Info!! Quick Hold Back At Intermarket Correlations In Addition To Themes
Sometimes it feels equally though it's all only 1 trade: the marketplace position is either rewarding risky assets or shunning them. Indeed, tracking intermarket themes during as well as across days provides useful data regarding the reckon of large coin managers.
I took a quick facial expression at how iii markets accept been correlated since mid-2007 inwards damage of their weekly returns: the States dollar (UUP); commodities (DBC); as well as stocks (SPY).
If nosotros only facial expression during 2009, here's how the correlations sort up:
If anything, correlations accept tightened upwardly a chip during 2009. The negative human relationship betwixt the dollar as well as commodities makes sense, since commodities are inwards business office denominated inwards dollars. H5N1 weak dollar implies a reflationary/inflationary outlook, which is positive for commodities.
As economies accept picked up, the expectation is that economical increase would Pb to greater commodity consumption; thence the positive correlation betwixt commodities as well as stocks.
During the ship market, the the States dollar acted equally a condom haven; those selling risky assets such equally stocks fled to the security of Treasury instruments as well as dollars. Now that stocks accept been on the rising inwards the wake of economical recovery, at that topographic point has been an appetite away from the dollar as well as toward the currencies of faster growing areas. Hence the negative correlation betwixt the dollar as well as stocks.
An additional useful correlation to follow is Treasury yields. By observing the ebb as well as catamenia of these correlations over time, nosotros gain insight into intermarket themes that crusade upper-case alphabetic lineament flows.
.
I took a quick facial expression at how iii markets accept been correlated since mid-2007 inwards damage of their weekly returns: the States dollar (UUP); commodities (DBC); as well as stocks (SPY).
U.S. dollar : commodities = -.57
Commodities : stocks = .39
U.S. dollar: stocks = -.25
Commodities : stocks = .39
U.S. dollar: stocks = -.25
If nosotros only facial expression during 2009, here's how the correlations sort up:
U.S. dollar : commodities = -.56
Commodities : stocks = .49
the States dollar: stocks = -.38
Commodities : stocks = .49
the States dollar: stocks = -.38
If anything, correlations accept tightened upwardly a chip during 2009. The negative human relationship betwixt the dollar as well as commodities makes sense, since commodities are inwards business office denominated inwards dollars. H5N1 weak dollar implies a reflationary/inflationary outlook, which is positive for commodities.
As economies accept picked up, the expectation is that economical increase would Pb to greater commodity consumption; thence the positive correlation betwixt commodities as well as stocks.
During the ship market, the the States dollar acted equally a condom haven; those selling risky assets such equally stocks fled to the security of Treasury instruments as well as dollars. Now that stocks accept been on the rising inwards the wake of economical recovery, at that topographic point has been an appetite away from the dollar as well as toward the currencies of faster growing areas. Hence the negative correlation betwixt the dollar as well as stocks.
An additional useful correlation to follow is Treasury yields. By observing the ebb as well as catamenia of these correlations over time, nosotros gain insight into intermarket themes that crusade upper-case alphabetic lineament flows.
.
Monday, February 23, 2015
Info!! Midday Briefing For August 31St: Settling Downward Later A Drop
After a high-volume turn down early on inward the morning, greenback how the marketplace has since slowed downward together with drifted into a hit simply inward a higher house the lows from 8/27. When nosotros come across relatively high book (i.e., book that is inward a higher house average for that item fourth dimension of day) plough into relatively depression book (volume that is subnormal), it suggests that institutional traders convey largely withdrawn from the marketplace. That leaves the marketplace to the relative command of short-term marketplace makers, including algorithmic programs operating simply about the market. That tin hand the marketplace trendless choppy activity that is hard to trade.
It is non odd to come across large traders stand upwards dorsum from the marketplace the twenty-four hours earlier an of import economical unloosen or event, such equally a Fed announcement. In this case, traders are looking ahead to the ISM unloosen tomorrow morning. There is a wide hit of expectations for the number, ranging from slightly below fifty (economy contracting) to nicely inward a higher house fifty (economy expanding). Not wanting to larn run over yesteryear a set out exterior of consensus, it's non surprising that coin managers clit inward their horns ahead of the release.
When that happens, nosotros tin to a greater extent than oft than non anticipate an active merchandise later the final result or release, equally coin managers jump dorsum into the marketplace together with response both to the intelligence together with how markets are responding to the news.
.
Sunday, February 22, 2015
Info!! Weakness Inwards China In Addition To Alongside Materials Stocks: Of Import Intermarket Theme
With Communist People's Republic of China (FXI; piece of employment yesteryear chart) good off its early on August highs, complaint the relative weakness of Basic Materials companies today together with on a one-week footing per the first-class FinViz site. If increase inwards Communist People's Republic of China is slowing down, remove for raw materials should weaken--and that puts a drag on a sector has been a leader since the March stock marketplace lows.
.
Saturday, February 21, 2015
Info!! Fewer Stocks Showing 20-Day Strength
my before sentiment of the indicator, suggesting a narrowing base of operations to the bull market.
Note: This indicator tracks all mutual stocks across the NYSE, NASDAQ, together with ASE together with is updated each morn before the marketplace opened upward via Twitter; follow here).
.
Note: This indicator tracks all mutual stocks across the NYSE, NASDAQ, together with ASE together with is updated each morn before the marketplace opened upward via Twitter; follow here).
.
Friday, February 20, 2015
Info!! Eve Briefing For August 31St
* MARKET THEMES FROM MONDAY: We saw an early on turn down inwards stocks interruption us below the lows of 8/27, exclusively for merchandise to tedious downward considerably in addition to thus rally belatedly inwards the session. Short-term, this leaves us inwards a trading gain betwixt the overnight highs preceding Monday's merchandise in addition to Monday's lows. Overall, weakness dominated amongst market, amongst virtually 1400 to a greater extent than declining issues than advancers on the NYSE in addition to 20-day lows exceeding novel highs. The U.S. dollar weakened in ane lawsuit nosotros striking a bottom inwards stocks; golden strengthened from that point, but fossil oil remained relatively weak through the session. Financial stocks shut good off their highs in addition to good into Friday's trading range; industrial stocks, pocket-size caps, in addition to consumer discretionary shares were relatively weak from the open. Ten-year rates shut nigh their lows, but a flake inwards a higher house 3.4%.
* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 11:30 PM CT - Australia, RBA (central bank) announcement; 1:00 AM CT - Germany, retail sales; 2:50 AM CT - Germany, unemployment rate; 4:00 AM CT - EU, unemployment rate; 8:30 PM CT - Australia, GDP. don't permit bears trade;
-- March uptrends keeping things nether control;
-- Cracks inwards the Shanghai market;
-- Economy bouncing back inwards sec one-half of 2009;
.
* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 11:30 PM CT - Australia, RBA (central bank) announcement; 1:00 AM CT - Germany, retail sales; 2:50 AM CT - Germany, unemployment rate; 4:00 AM CT - EU, unemployment rate; 8:30 PM CT - Australia, GDP. don't permit bears trade;
-- March uptrends keeping things nether control;
-- Cracks inwards the Shanghai market;
-- Economy bouncing back inwards sec one-half of 2009;
.
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Info!! Morn Briefing For September 1St: Watching Downside Levels
increase inwards the publish of stocks registering fresh 20-day lows.
A publish of traders are taking their vacations ahead of the Labor Day holiday; that contributed to tedious trading together with a narrow solar daytime session make yesterday. I'll last watching relative book closely to run across how much chance shapes upward over the residual of this week. Today's ISM information together with Friday's unemployment study should furnish at to the lowest degree around involvement together with activity.
.
A publish of traders are taking their vacations ahead of the Labor Day holiday; that contributed to tedious trading together with a narrow solar daytime session make yesterday. I'll last watching relative book closely to run across how much chance shapes upward over the residual of this week. Today's ISM information together with Friday's unemployment study should furnish at to the lowest degree around involvement together with activity.
.
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Info!! Intermarket Correlations In Addition To The Influence Of The Global Macro Trade
intermarket correlations with honour to weekly closes; hither is a to a greater extent than detailed expect at intermarket correlations during 2009. What we're looking at are the correlations alongside daily percent changes for the cash marketplace closes across the diverse instruments.
What nosotros come across is that the wry observations of coin managers that "It's all 1 market" are understandable. If global macro participants are bullish on risk, they are selling United States of America dollars, selling United States of America Treasuries (hiking 10-year yields), buying commodities such equally unsmooth oil too copper, too buying stocks.
If global macro participants cash inward one's chips gamble averse, they seek relative rubber haven inward the United States of America dollar too United States of America Treasuries too selling commodities too stocks. Of especial banker's complaint are the correlations betwixt stocks too commodities (copper too crude) too betwixt stocks too the United States of America dollar. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 sizable proportion of variance inward the daily returns of stocks is shared with these other instruments.
What that tells us is that flows of funds from global macro participants are indeed influencing markets too making it to a greater extent than challenging to accomplish portfolio diversification.
.
What nosotros come across is that the wry observations of coin managers that "It's all 1 market" are understandable. If global macro participants are bullish on risk, they are selling United States of America dollars, selling United States of America Treasuries (hiking 10-year yields), buying commodities such equally unsmooth oil too copper, too buying stocks.
If global macro participants cash inward one's chips gamble averse, they seek relative rubber haven inward the United States of America dollar too United States of America Treasuries too selling commodities too stocks. Of especial banker's complaint are the correlations betwixt stocks too commodities (copper too crude) too betwixt stocks too the United States of America dollar. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 sizable proportion of variance inward the daily returns of stocks is shared with these other instruments.
What that tells us is that flows of funds from global macro participants are indeed influencing markets too making it to a greater extent than challenging to accomplish portfolio diversification.
.
Monday, February 16, 2015
Info!! Midday Briefing For September 1St: Huge Book To The Downside
confluence of those told us that global macro traders were exiting the opportunity trade.
The resulting driblet took us all the means to novel lows and, indeed, to our outset weekly downside target. (See hither for profits targets for this week). Particularly notable, however, was the book to the downside: book during the 10:00 AM CT one-half hr ran almost 4 times the average value for that fourth dimension of 24-hour interval or almost 8 measure deviations to a higher house the norm!
That tells us that at that spot was tremendous institutional participation to the downside. Those are the kinds of moves amongst legs. The fact that the downside motion followed from a scenario of continuing technical weakness was also strongly supportive of the behavior case. Stocks making fresh 20-day lows dice along to expand in addition to dice along to outnumber novel highs, suggesting that nosotros have, indeed, made an intermediate-term shift away from the bull.
.
The resulting driblet took us all the means to novel lows and, indeed, to our outset weekly downside target. (See hither for profits targets for this week). Particularly notable, however, was the book to the downside: book during the 10:00 AM CT one-half hr ran almost 4 times the average value for that fourth dimension of 24-hour interval or almost 8 measure deviations to a higher house the norm!
That tells us that at that spot was tremendous institutional participation to the downside. Those are the kinds of moves amongst legs. The fact that the downside motion followed from a scenario of continuing technical weakness was also strongly supportive of the behavior case. Stocks making fresh 20-day lows dice along to expand in addition to dice along to outnumber novel highs, suggesting that nosotros have, indeed, made an intermediate-term shift away from the bull.
.
Sunday, February 15, 2015
Info!! On My Marketplace Radar For A Weak Tuesday
With today's steep reversal on high book (see ES nautical chart above), I'm right away watching the levels from the prior intermediate-term bottom on 8/17 in addition to 8/19. H5N1 driblet below those levels would propose that an of import bull hap may accept been registered inwards August. As it stands now, however, I'm treating this every bit a broad trading hit defined past times those August lows in addition to the recent cost highs.
One information yell for worth noting is that we're already seeing to a greater extent than stocks making 20- in addition to 65-day lows than nosotros saw at those August lows. That tells me that, although the marketplace averages are to a higher house their previous depression points, we're starting to encounter private stocks breaking down. Of the sector groups, the raw materials stocks (XLB) are closest to those August lows, reflecting continued weakness amid commodities.
Very venture buying came inwards when nosotros traded below ES yard inwards mid August, launching stocks to novel highs. Now, however, we're seeing really venture selling off the recent highs. Inability to abide by buyers below ES yard would propose a major shift of persuasion amid coin managers. Conversely, should nosotros encounter selling dry out upwardly at cost levels to a higher house those August lows, nosotros could encounter a overnice piece of occupation higher dorsum into that broad trading range. As always, I'll live on updating indicators via Twitter (follow here).
.
Saturday, February 14, 2015
Info!! Eve Briefing For September 1St
* MARKET THEMES FROM TUESDAY - We saw anticipatory buying ahead of rigid economical data, simply selling on the intelligence moved lead chances assets lower, though gilded was a notable exception. Stocks savage below the lows from 8/27 as well as Monday, expanding the number of issues making fresh 20-day lows. Downside momentum, equally measured past times the Supply ingredient of my Demand/Supply stair out (updated each morn earlier the opened upwardly and other expert reading;
-- China as well as the yuan;
-- Bondholders gambling on inflation and much more.
*
-- China as well as the yuan;
-- Bondholders gambling on inflation and much more.
*
Friday, February 13, 2015
Info!! When To Give-Up The Ghost A Trade
A few people lead keep asked me why I covered my swing merchandise (selling S&P 500 Index on Friday as well as adding to the seat Tuesday morning). Three reasons stand upward out:
1) I had gear upward an initial net turn a profit target at the weekly S1 level. We hitting that rate and, per my discipline, I e'er accept profits on 1 unit of measurement when the outset target is hit. (Note: this presumes a organisation for unit of measurement sizing of positions; I volition hold out blogging on this theme shortly. The basic see is that you lot carve upward your uppercase for a item see into several portions or units. This enables you lot to systematically scale inwards as well as out of trades.)
2) When I saw that nosotros were having a labored fourth dimension hitting the second, S2, target, I took the seat off entirely. My job organisation was that nosotros were seeing important selling pressure level (negative NYSE TICK, book at bid exceeding offering inwards the ES futures), but that the pressure level was having a hard fourth dimension moving stocks meaningfully lower inwards the afternoon.
3) I knew nosotros had a rigid momentum twenty-four hr catamenia to the downside. Recall that the proprietary Demand/Supply stair out is an index of the publish of stocks trading inwards a higher house as well as below the volatility envelopes surrounding their short-term moving averages. We hitting 200 on the Supply side, which agency that a real large publish of stocks had unopen below their short-term bands. This has precisely occurred xxx times since belatedly 2002 when I outset began collecting the data. When this has happened, the S&P 500 Index (SPY) has unopen upward the adjacent twenty-four hr catamenia 20 times, downwards x for an average gain of .60%. That told me that, short-term, I mightiness hold out able to re-enter my seat at improve prices. (Note: I update Demand as well as Supply every twenty-four hr catamenia earlier the marketplace opened upward via Twitter; trade management as well as its component subdivision inwards helping traders maximize gains, but also protect them.
.
1) I had gear upward an initial net turn a profit target at the weekly S1 level. We hitting that rate and, per my discipline, I e'er accept profits on 1 unit of measurement when the outset target is hit. (Note: this presumes a organisation for unit of measurement sizing of positions; I volition hold out blogging on this theme shortly. The basic see is that you lot carve upward your uppercase for a item see into several portions or units. This enables you lot to systematically scale inwards as well as out of trades.)
2) When I saw that nosotros were having a labored fourth dimension hitting the second, S2, target, I took the seat off entirely. My job organisation was that nosotros were seeing important selling pressure level (negative NYSE TICK, book at bid exceeding offering inwards the ES futures), but that the pressure level was having a hard fourth dimension moving stocks meaningfully lower inwards the afternoon.
3) I knew nosotros had a rigid momentum twenty-four hr catamenia to the downside. Recall that the proprietary Demand/Supply stair out is an index of the publish of stocks trading inwards a higher house as well as below the volatility envelopes surrounding their short-term moving averages. We hitting 200 on the Supply side, which agency that a real large publish of stocks had unopen below their short-term bands. This has precisely occurred xxx times since belatedly 2002 when I outset began collecting the data. When this has happened, the S&P 500 Index (SPY) has unopen upward the adjacent twenty-four hr catamenia 20 times, downwards x for an average gain of .60%. That told me that, short-term, I mightiness hold out able to re-enter my seat at improve prices. (Note: I update Demand as well as Supply every twenty-four hr catamenia earlier the marketplace opened upward via Twitter; trade management as well as its component subdivision inwards helping traders maximize gains, but also protect them.
.
Thursday, February 12, 2015
Info!! Morn Briefing For September 2Nd: Novel Lows
a style to meet a bounce next days of rigid downside momentum.
Meanwhile, we're seeing the USA dollar merchandise a fighting stronger vs. the euro as well as Aussie dollar; petroleum is downward (though a fighting off its lows); as well as gilt is ane time over again bucking the commodity designing as well as trading higher. That's a marketplace worth watching, as I noted a petty piece back. Keep an midpoint on NYSE TICK; weak selling pull per unit of measurement area would propose the possibility of sustaining a bounce.
.
Meanwhile, we're seeing the USA dollar merchandise a fighting stronger vs. the euro as well as Aussie dollar; petroleum is downward (though a fighting off its lows); as well as gilt is ane time over again bucking the commodity designing as well as trading higher. That's a marketplace worth watching, as I noted a petty piece back. Keep an midpoint on NYSE TICK; weak selling pull per unit of measurement area would propose the possibility of sustaining a bounce.
.
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
Info!! 3 Evidence-Based Psychological Methods For Changing Behavior
In my webinar afterward today, I volition hold upwards focusing on 3 sets of techniques that I purpose regularly inward my coaching practice:
Over the side yesteryear side few days, I'll hold upwards posting to a greater extent than virtually these methods and, of course, the webinar volition hold upwards archived yesteryear IOAMT in addition to linked on their domicile page for those who can't attend the alive event.
Meanwhile, hither are a few posts relevant to these psychological techniques:
1) Experiential approaches to interruption repetitive patterns that interfere amongst proficient trading;
2) Exposure techniques to overcome reactions to loss in addition to trauma;
3) Solution-focused methods to construct positive trading practices.
2) Exposure techniques to overcome reactions to loss in addition to trauma;
3) Solution-focused methods to construct positive trading practices.
Over the side yesteryear side few days, I'll hold upwards posting to a greater extent than virtually these methods and, of course, the webinar volition hold upwards archived yesteryear IOAMT in addition to linked on their domicile page for those who can't attend the alive event.
Meanwhile, hither are a few posts relevant to these psychological techniques:
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Info!! Quick Note: Gilt On The Rise
the recent weblog posting. Note the breakout inwards today's trade. This looks similar a promising swing merchandise to the upside if nosotros tin sustain the deed higher upwards the prior high inwards GLD the 95 area. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 prissy agency to merchandise breakouts is to hold off for the get-go pullback, run into if the reversal runs out of steam, as well as thus operate that every mo an entry.
.
.
Monday, February 9, 2015
Info!! Midday Briefing For September 2Nd: Trying To Plough Around?
here too here).
It's non an ideal representative of the pattern, because nosotros usually desire to encounter distinct non-confirmations at the cost lows. At this juncture, nosotros convey already registered to a greater extent than 20-day lows today than yesterday too the major sectors convey likewise followed the averages to cost lows. We would postulate to agree inwards a higher house recent lows at ES 995 too and then intermission through overhead resistance inwards the depression chiliad expanse to confirm the pattern. I would teach peculiarly interested inwards the designing should nosotros teach farther cost weakness that is accompanied past times indicator too sector divergences.
.
It's non an ideal representative of the pattern, because nosotros usually desire to encounter distinct non-confirmations at the cost lows. At this juncture, nosotros convey already registered to a greater extent than 20-day lows today than yesterday too the major sectors convey likewise followed the averages to cost lows. We would postulate to agree inwards a higher house recent lows at ES 995 too and then intermission through overhead resistance inwards the depression chiliad expanse to confirm the pattern. I would teach peculiarly interested inwards the designing should nosotros teach farther cost weakness that is accompanied past times indicator too sector divergences.
.
Sunday, February 8, 2015
Info!! Eve Briefing For September 2Nd
* MARKET THEMES FROM WEDNESDAY: After a sharp, high book turn down on Tuesday, nosotros traded lower inwards pre-market trading too continued inwards a placidity arrive at for much of the day. While it appeared that the marketplace was attempting to stabilize later the decline, the relative absence of buying delineate per unit of measurement area ensured that nosotros accepted value below ES 1000, sustaining the short-term downtrend. Gold traded higher through the day later an early on upside breakout move; the United States of America dollar weakened inwards afternoon trading; too stone oil traded at lower levels for nearly of the day. Rennie Yang of the fantabulous an intraday book play during a tedious afternoon;
-- soft consumer spending;
-- central banking concern responses to the fiscal crisis;
-- Difficult options facing healthcare reform.
.
-- soft consumer spending;
-- central banking concern responses to the fiscal crisis;
-- Difficult options facing healthcare reform.
.
Saturday, February 7, 2015
Info!! Tracking The Odds Of Tendency Days: First-Class Tool From Vertical Solutions
identifying twenty-four hours structure: whether the electrical flow trading session is shaping upwardly equally a tendency twenty-four hours or a twenty-four hours that volition merchandise inside a range. Identifying a tendency twenty-four hours enables you lot to concur trades through the session, equally tendency days typically opened upwardly virtually their depression (high) for the day, merchandise alongside expanded volatility, as well as unopen virtually their high (low) for the day. On a tendency day, you lot desire to merchandise the market's direction; on gain days, you lot desire to fade it. On a tendency day, you'll tend to concur trades; on a gain day, you'll tend to brand it as well as out of swings. How you lot merchandise a marketplace position volition critically depend upon the twenty-four hours construction that you lot identify.
Henry Carstens of Vertical Solutions, who develops, trades, as well as manages coin alongside mechanical systems based on historical testing, has conducted inquiry into the characteristics of days that plough into tendency days. Based on that research, he has developed an indicator (see above) that spits out--in existent time--the odds of whether the introduce twenty-four hours inward the stock marketplace position is probable to last a tendency or gain day. Best of all, that indicator is available on his site at no charge, along alongside other forecasting tools that he has developed.
If you lot cheque out Henry's Twitter page, you'll honour his trading signals also posted inward existent time, along alongside tendency status. His strategies accept performed quite well as well as forthwith are available for managed accounts. Great resources!
.
Henry Carstens of Vertical Solutions, who develops, trades, as well as manages coin alongside mechanical systems based on historical testing, has conducted inquiry into the characteristics of days that plough into tendency days. Based on that research, he has developed an indicator (see above) that spits out--in existent time--the odds of whether the introduce twenty-four hours inward the stock marketplace position is probable to last a tendency or gain day. Best of all, that indicator is available on his site at no charge, along alongside other forecasting tools that he has developed.
If you lot cheque out Henry's Twitter page, you'll honour his trading signals also posted inward existent time, along alongside tendency status. His strategies accept performed quite well as well as forthwith are available for managed accounts. Great resources!
.
Friday, February 6, 2015
Info!! Morn Briefing For September 3Rd: Simulated Breakout
resistance mentioned inward the recent post inward the depression M surface area for the ES contract on overnight forcefulness inward China, entirely to straightaway autumn dorsum into Wednesday's range. Such failed breakouts tin terminate hold out highly profitable trades if you lot position them early. The high probability merchandise is dorsum to the prior day's pin level, which nosotros typically striking over 70% of all trading days.
I abide by that Henry Carstens' tendency measure posted entirely 45% odds of a tendency twenty-four hours before this morning. It volition hold out interesting to run across if that helps us position imitation breakout days. Meanwhile, nosotros await equally though we'll hold out testing the Midweek lows; I'll hold out looking for confirmations as well as divergences to handicap the odds of that leading to a downside tendency vs. a imitation breakout to the reverse side.
.
I abide by that Henry Carstens' tendency measure posted entirely 45% odds of a tendency twenty-four hours before this morning. It volition hold out interesting to run across if that helps us position imitation breakout days. Meanwhile, nosotros await equally though we'll hold out testing the Midweek lows; I'll hold out looking for confirmations as well as divergences to handicap the odds of that leading to a downside tendency vs. a imitation breakout to the reverse side.
.
Thursday, February 5, 2015
Info!! A Quick Await At The Market's Book Dynamics
the market's fake upside break, nosotros saw pregnant selling book force the marketplace below its Wed lows (bottom histogram). The rejection of that book portion at 999 was a overnice enjoin that nosotros were seeking value lower. I'm directly looking to meet if nosotros tin halt stabilize at the forenoon lows as well as uncovering buying interest, given the disclose of sector non-confirmations mentioned inward the recent tweet (follow here).
It's a overnice instance of how seeing where nosotros don't construct book as well as where nosotros produce tin halt provide useful clues equally to the short-term request as well as provide inward the market.
.
It's a overnice instance of how seeing where nosotros don't construct book as well as where nosotros produce tin halt provide useful clues equally to the short-term request as well as provide inward the market.
.
Wednesday, February 4, 2015
Info!! Midday Briefing For September 3Rd: What Relative Book Tells Us
volume correlates then good alongside volatility, I honour it real useful to rails the relative book of the day's marketplace every bit a agency of seeing how today's book at each half-hour menses stacks upwards to the median book from the concluding few months. (For a listing of those half-hour norms, check this post).
Note how, inwards the bottom chart, today's book dramatically brutal curt of its norms starting alongside the 10:30 AM one-half hour. Recognizing that was real helpful inwards anticipating a slow, arrive at market as well as adjusting trading accordingly. (I sat out the afternoon session to this betoken for this real reason).
It's a uncomplicated calculus: large traders deed markets. If nosotros don't come across large traders participating inwards the trade, the markets aren't probable to move.
.
Note how, inwards the bottom chart, today's book dramatically brutal curt of its norms starting alongside the 10:30 AM one-half hour. Recognizing that was real helpful inwards anticipating a slow, arrive at market as well as adjusting trading accordingly. (I sat out the afternoon session to this betoken for this real reason).
It's a uncomplicated calculus: large traders deed markets. If nosotros don't come across large traders participating inwards the trade, the markets aren't probable to move.
.
Tuesday, February 3, 2015
Info!! A Few Worthwhile Tools For Intraday Stock Screening
Aware that slow markets tin sack Pb to a wretched chance set for intraday stock index trading, many traders concealment for private stocks that are probable to present promising reach during the day.
FinViz offers a costless screening tool, along amongst the might to apply customized screening criteria to defined stock portfolios inwards their Elite version.
Trade Ideas has done a fine undertaking of continually adding tools to their screener, including the might to select manage of book spikes together with filter stocks past times where they are trading inside their day's ranges. Also unique to Trade Ideas is the Odds Maker module, that enables traders to backtest diverse screening patterns over a prior three-week period.
Trader Vic Scherer publishes what he calls "persistence lists" inwards his Daytrend spider web log site. These are chosen from a universe of liquid stocks. He updates the lists for stocks moving inwards upwards together with downwards trends during the terminal hr of the trading 24-hour interval together with also alerts readers to the lists via Twitter. See also the extensive marketplace position statistics that Vic keeps; impressive work!
Are in that location valuable intraday screening tools that you lot purpose for stock trading? Please offering your squall outs through comments to this post. Thanks!
.
FinViz offers a costless screening tool, along amongst the might to apply customized screening criteria to defined stock portfolios inwards their Elite version.
Trade Ideas has done a fine undertaking of continually adding tools to their screener, including the might to select manage of book spikes together with filter stocks past times where they are trading inside their day's ranges. Also unique to Trade Ideas is the Odds Maker module, that enables traders to backtest diverse screening patterns over a prior three-week period.
Trader Vic Scherer publishes what he calls "persistence lists" inwards his Daytrend spider web log site. These are chosen from a universe of liquid stocks. He updates the lists for stocks moving inwards upwards together with downwards trends during the terminal hr of the trading 24-hour interval together with also alerts readers to the lists via Twitter. See also the extensive marketplace position statistics that Vic keeps; impressive work!
Are in that location valuable intraday screening tools that you lot purpose for stock trading? Please offering your squall outs through comments to this post. Thanks!
.
Monday, February 2, 2015
Info!! Eve Briefing For September 3Rd
* MARKET THEMES FROM THURSDAY: Stocks could non sustain early on strength as well as the ES futures roughshod to multiday lows inwards morning time trade. There were numerous sector non-confirmations of those lows, every bit noted predicting big undertaking losses for Friday's release;
-- Brazil homeowners give-up the ghost landlords;
-- Perspective on what it takes to prepare a pop fiscal blog;
-- Gold on the rise;
-- Still seeing higher highs as well as higher lows.
.
-- Brazil homeowners give-up the ghost landlords;
-- Perspective on what it takes to prepare a pop fiscal blog;
-- Gold on the rise;
-- Still seeing higher highs as well as higher lows.
.
Sunday, February 1, 2015
Info!! Learning How To Trade: A Dissimilar Model Of Trader Pedagogy Too Training
* Suppose a weblog integrated backtested trading signals amongst updated marketplace information: intraday regard (how large traders are leaning), sector together with intermarket themes, relative volume/volatility, etc.
* Suppose a weblog integrated teaching together with coaching amongst all the above, structuring learning fourth dimension earlier together with later marketplace sessions
* Suppose a weblog seamlessly integrated input from participants for usual learning
* Suppose a weblog could update existent fourth dimension screening of stocks together with sectors to position what's moving together with trending together with what isn't
* Suppose a weblog could highlight master copy inquiry based on historical patterns, methods for executing trades effectively, together with successful strategies for coin management--not only merchandise "setups"
What you lot would convey is a sort of virtual trading group: a agency to move from fragmented "education" to actual training. It would likewise survive a agency to overcome the isolation of independent trading together with relish a degree of determination support unremarkably possible exclusively inside large trading firms.
Get ready. 2010 isn't then far away.
.
* Suppose a weblog integrated teaching together with coaching amongst all the above, structuring learning fourth dimension earlier together with later marketplace sessions
* Suppose a weblog seamlessly integrated input from participants for usual learning
* Suppose a weblog could update existent fourth dimension screening of stocks together with sectors to position what's moving together with trending together with what isn't
* Suppose a weblog could highlight master copy inquiry based on historical patterns, methods for executing trades effectively, together with successful strategies for coin management--not only merchandise "setups"
What you lot would convey is a sort of virtual trading group: a agency to move from fragmented "education" to actual training. It would likewise survive a agency to overcome the isolation of independent trading together with relish a degree of determination support unremarkably possible exclusively inside large trading firms.
Get ready. 2010 isn't then far away.
.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)