Info!! Stock Marketplace Pose Volatility: A Historical Perspective

We are currently living through a catamenia of meaning stock marketplace volatility. Let's guide keep both a historical together with a psychological await at what that means.

The nautical chart higher upwards shows the S&P 500 cash index (blue line) versus its 20-day average daily truthful gain (ATR). The 20-day ATR is a mensurate of actual cost volatility inwards the index; non implied volatility equally calculated past times options together with non premium levels built into options pricing. The ATR is the larger of the following:

* The percent cost gain betwixt today's high together with depression prices;
* The percent cost gain betwixt today's high cost together with yesterday's closing price;
* The percent cost gain betwixt yesterday's closing cost together with today's depression price.

What this agency is that ATR captures, non alone the size of the gain during the trading day, only too the gaps that hand off betwixt yesterday's unopen together with today's trading. It is a mensurate of past times cost volatility both inside together with betwixt trading days.

The nautical chart is showing us that actual cost volatility has gone into a parabolic ascension together with that nosotros of late exceeded the volatility levels from the 2002 acquit marketplace period.

How meaning is this?

I went dorsum to 1962 together with looked at periods inwards marketplace history inwards which the 20-day ATR for the S&P 500 Index has exceeded 3%.

Here are the marketplace periods together with the highest levels of volatility for each:

* October/November 1987: 5.60%
* October/November 1974: 3.95%
* Oct 2008: 3.84%
* July/August 2002: 3.83%
* June 1970: 3.40%
* June 1962: 3.31%
* Oct 2002: 3.25%
* Dec 1973: 3.10%

As nosotros tin see, the electrical current grade of cost volatility is non without precedent, only is at real meaning levels: the 3rd highest catamenia since 1962. (By contrast, the median 20-day ATR since 1962 has been 1.40%; the criterion departure over that catamenia has been .57%).

From a psychological advantage point, volatility represents doubtfulness inwards the market's estimations of value. Imagine a marketplace inwards which at that spot was no volatility whatsoever: marketplace participants would endure inwards perfect understanding equally to the value of stocks together with so would guide keep no argue to merchandise amongst ane another. As at that spot is disagreement inwards estimations of value, nosotros guide keep incentives to trade, equally each player believes that the marketplace volition ultimately motion to his or her projected fair value.

When those estimations of fair value perish widely dispersed together with when participants brand corking shifts inwards these estimations, markets perish to a greater extent than volatile. During times of economical together with political crisis, such equally the 1962, 1987, together with 2002 periods, nosotros run into such volatility inwards the pricing of markets. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 unopen await at the historical tape suggests 2 conclusions:

1) Periods of historically high volatility guide keep tended to hand off during acquit markets together with guide keep been associated amongst long-term opportunities for investment. If you lot await at the periods inwards which we've had real high volatility, these guide keep tended to fit amongst of import acquit marketplace lows since 1962. The notable exception was December, 1973, which was an intermediate depression inwards an ongoing acquit market;

2) Periods of historically high volatility tin persist together with produce non necessarily fit to precise acquit marketplace cost lows. Volatility was high through much of the latter business office of 2002, for instance, together with yet stocks did non bottom until March of 2003. We didn't larn a cost bottom until Dec of 1974, later volatility had peaked the calendar month before.

So where does that exit us? As long equally volatility is historically high *and* on the rise, equally is the instance inwards the electrical current market, it is treacherous to pick bottoms. Periods of elevated volatility tin perish super-elevated, equally inwards 1987; they tin too persist, equally inwards 2002. Panicking together with rushing to liquidate your investment portfolio is too treacherous, however, equally these elevated periods guide keep been associated amongst unopen to of the greatest investment opportunities inwards the past times few decades. By next the marketplace similar a trader--tracking dollar-volume inflows together with outflows on a daily basis, the willingness of large marketplace participants to hitting bids or elevator offers, the involvement inwards riskier yields vs. security Treasuries--I notice it easiest to perish along myself out of problem equally an investor. That saves considerable upper-case alphabetic quality during periods of tape volatility; nosotros don't larn a bottom until valuations perish together with then depression that they stand upwards for irresistible bargains for investors. Those trading indicators advise that we're non at that spot yet.
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Info!! When Volatility Becomes To A Greater Extent Than Volatile: What Does That Mean?

What does it mean, psychologically, when the volatility of a market, stock, or property is high or low?  The purpose of markets is to constitute value for buyers as well as sellers.  In a basis of perfect unanimity, where buyers as well as sellers totally concur on value, at that spot volition hold upwardly piddling or no volatility.  In a less for sure world, at that spot volition hold upwardly differences inwards the placement of value.  When those differences cash inwards one's chips extreme, nosotros select volatility.  It is inwards that context that measures of the implied volatility of a stock index (the volatility implied yesteryear options pricing), such equally VIX, tin post away hold upwardly considered a mensurate of uncertainty.  Each private player may experience for sure regarding their assessment of value, only the assessments of participants overall are widely distributed as well as thence bring uncertainty.

When the volatility of volatility is elevated, as well as then nosotros run into non entirely extreme differences inwards the placement of value, only frequent shifts amid these placements.  Vol of vol is thus a proficient mensurate of the relative stability or instability of a market's basic function:  setting value.  It is non surprising that vol of vol becomes extreme during periods of cracking marketplace instability, such equally 2008.

If you lot click on the nautical chart above, you lot volition run into SPY plotted against the five-day realized volatility of VIX from 2012 to the present.  As you lot tin post away see, nosotros select moved really apace from a depression vol of vol environs to a high one.  H5N1 await at prior, like elevations inwards vol of vol finds that these select occurred during corrective periods inwards SPY and, on average, select been proficient points to hunt for stock marketplace bargains.  Indeed, going dorsum to 2012, nosotros honour that the overstep quartile of occasions of highest vol of vol select led to an average adjacent five-day furnish of .63% vs. .27% for the balance of the sample.  The marketplace has rewarded those who select used periods of instability to purchase bargains inwards stocks.

The challenge, of course, is that instability tin post away cash inwards one's chips greater instability earlier prices deed higher as well as markets cash inwards one's chips to a greater extent than orderly.  What is of import is for traders as well as investors to possess upwardly one's heed whether the electrical flow instability is to a greater extent than of a transient fearfulness inwards markets (as has been the illustration since 2012) or whether it reflects to a greater extent than primal instability (as was the illustration inwards 2008).  At the really least, the rising inwards marketplace volatility as well as the volatile moves inwards volatility should prod traders as well as investors to review the sizing of their positions as well as the correlations inside their portfolios.  It's when those correlations deed toward 1 as well as volatility as well as vol of vol spike that seemingly prudent risk-taking tin post away all of a precipitous pose a gamble of ruin.

Further Reading:  Volatility of Markets as well as Moods
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Info!! What Is Dissimilar Most This Market?

An observation I've heard from quite a few traders virtually the stock marketplace seat is, "Something is different virtually this tape."  Because these are traders amongst expert instincts too considerable marketplace seat experience, I accept their observations seriously.  That led me to delve into some of the unique aspects of the acquaint market.

The outset difference was referenced inwards a recent spider web log post:  We receive got seen unusually rigid levels of buying off the recent marketplace seat lows.  Specifically, nosotros had 7 consecutive trading sessions inwards which my mensurate of Buying Pressure was a total criterion departure or to a greater extent than higher upwards the daily average going dorsum to 2012.  Interestingly, the terminal ii trading sessions receive got shown reduced buying interest; that's something I'm tracking closely.

The 2nd difference is volatility, equally documented inwards the overstep nautical chart above.  When nosotros expression at 10-day realized volatility (the ten-day average of daily average truthful make inwards SPY), nosotros tin run into that this marketplace seat is wholly different what we've seen during 2014.  This has existent implications for the sizing of positions too risk-taking, equally stocks are probable to deed to a greater extent than than we're accustomed to seeing.  If nosotros expression exclusively at implied volatility, such equally VIX (the volatility implied inwards the options market), nosotros are currently at levels that nosotros saw during early on 2014, or too therefore the Feb lows.  Realized volatility, however, is much higher.  In other words, we're seeing to a greater extent than marketplace seat displace than fifty-fifty the VIX would Pb us to expect.

The 3rd difference is reflected inwards the bottom chart, which depicts something I telephone band the "Power Measure".  Basically, the Power Measure is a running correlation betwixt volatility too toll change.  We're looking to run into if big volatility moves are tending to happen to the upside or downside.  It is non odd for the Power Measure to bottom ahead of intermediate-term marketplace seat lows, reflecting the trajectory of downside momentum, too it is non at all odd for it to peak ahead of toll during intermediate-term bull cycles.  I purpose it less equally a timing tool than equally a full general approximate to nation me if markets are moving to a greater extent than impulsively to the upside (Power > 0) or downside (Power < 0).  I hold back us to crest inwards coming days, only the shorter-term version of the indicator is already peaking at a lower toll high relative to September.  This makes me sensitive to the possibility that, despite the buying pressure, nosotros could seat inwards a lower high too right further.  The drib nosotros saw overnight amongst the NYC Ebola scare reminds us that volatility tin soundless live on both ways inwards this market.

The big takeaway for me is that in that location are limits to how much you lot tin assume that acquaint markets volition mirror by ones.  When nosotros run into odd toll displace too wholly different volatility regimes, nosotros are wise to non extrapolate from recent--but dissimilar--markets.

Further Reading:  Putting Direction too Volatility on Your Side Intraday
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Info!! Adding Vision To What Yous Run Into Inward Markets

Strangely, I uncovering that traders who depict themselves every bit visual--i.e., they brand extensive purpose of nautical chart displays of prices in addition to indicators--are with those who merchandise with the to the lowest degree vision.  They brand inferences from what they see; non from an agreement of what lies behind the displays.

Take VIX, the pop stair out of volatility implied yesteryear options pricing, every bit an example.  We powerfulness brand inferences almost whether stocks volition become upward or downwards based upon VIX existence stretched to the upside or downside.  What nosotros know, however, is that VIX tends to displace inversely with index price.  VIX too tends to displace upward or downwards with realized volatility.  So when nosotros human face at a display of VIX, are nosotros genuinely seeing a reading of options-implied volatility or are nosotros seeing a conglomeration of several correlated variables?

To illustrate the point, I built a uncomplicated model of VIX that eliminates the overlapping influence of previous cost elbow grease in addition to recent realized volatility.  This adjusted VIX stair out captures the grade to which implied volatility is high or depression relative to what nosotros would await based upon previous cost elbow grease in addition to realized volatility.  Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 high adjusted VIX way that options are pricing inwards to a greater extent than volatility than nosotros would unremarkably await from the recent cost movement; a depression adjusted VIX way that options are pricing inwards less volatility that nosotros would unremarkably expect.

I went dorsum to 2012 in addition to divided the adjusted VIX into quartiles.  When the adjusted VIX was inwards its strongest quartile, the adjacent v days inwards SPY averaged a hit of +.49%.  When the adjusted VIX was inwards its weakest quartile, the adjacent v days inwards SPY averaged a hit of +.72%.  When the adjusted VIX was inwards its middle 2 quartiles (i.e., when VIX was pretty much inwards trouble with what we'd await from recent cost action), the adjacent v days inwards SPY averaged a loss of -.01%.

In other words, all the market's gains since 2012 tin terminate hold upward attributed to "mispricing" of VIX.  But y'all would never run into that inwards a uncomplicated nautical chart of VIX.  

Trading yesteryear sight does non ever convey vision.

For those interested, the adjusted VIX is currently inwards its lowest quartile, understating the cost elbow grease we've seen recently.

Further Reading:  Pure Volatility
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Info!! The Dynamics Of Stock Marketplace Cycles

Above nosotros tin run across that the volatility of stocks across marketplace position sectors has come upwards downwards significantly since the Feb lows.  Since 2012, when realized sector volatility has been inward its lowest quartile, the side past times side xx days inward SPY bring averaged a loss of -.40%.  When sector volatility has been inward its highest quartile, the side past times side xx days inward SPY bring averaged a arrive at of +3.54%.  

During historical investigations, I consistently discovery that intermediate-term returns are significantly tied to volatility as well as correlation regimes, especially when the statistical overlaps amid realized volatility, implied volatility, as well as correlation are eliminated.

The argue for this is that the psychological dynamics of marketplace position tops differ from those of marketplace position bottoms.  Stocks brand tops when values expire sufficiently stretched to the upside that buying involvement dries up.  In that context, the weakest sectors start out to autumn off, breadth wanes, correlations expire from lower to higher, as well as volatility shifts from lower to higher.

Stocks brand bottoms when values expire sufficiently stretched to the downside that the buying involvement of value participants is aroused.  This creates a reversal piece volatility as well as correlation are however high, equally breadth rebounds strongly.

This interplay of the dynamics of tops as well as bottoms is what creates marketplace position cycles.  Ultimately it is the interplay of shorter-term, momentum/trend players as well as longer-term value participants that creates the drying upwards at tops as well as sudden rebounds at bottoms.  Tracking volatility as well as correlation regimes is a agency of gauging, inward relative terms, where nosotros stand upwards inward intermediate-term marketplace position cycles.

Further Reading:  Sector Correlations
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Info!! Trading Notes: Calendar Week Of November 2Nd

Friday, Nov 6th

*  Today's early on merchandise promises to hold upwards dominated yesteryear the payrolls data.  Trade overnight slowed downward ahead of the release, but I await it to generate a practiced bargain of activity, given the focus on whether the Fed volition hike rates inwards December.  What I'll hold upwards looking for out of the release is how rates, the dollar, as well as stocks respond--and whether they movement thematically, inwards sympathy.  Any early on movement is to a greater extent than probable to hold upwards sustained if it's business office of a thematic macro trade.

*  That beingness said, I don't take away hold a dandy bargain of conviction going into the report.  I idea the inability to sustain an overnight bounce yesterday was significant, equally was the bounce off the morn lows.  All inwards all, we're overbought longer term, oversold shorter term.  I would need to run across yesterday's lows concord on whatever selling clit per unit of measurement area inwards guild to hold upwards a buyer.

*  Most people are familiar with VIX, the mensurate of volatility implied yesteryear options markets.  Fewer people rail implied correlations: the correlations reflected inwards options pricing.  While VIX has non moved tremendously from the kickoff of the calendar year, the implied correlation with stocks has collapsed.  We're pricing inwards real depression correlations, reflecting a relatively differentiated, rotational environment.  We had a decent sized driblet inwards implied correlation yesterday, such large drops take away hold by as well as large been bullish 3-5 days out.  I'll hold upwards sharing to a greater extent than query on implied correlation inwards coming days.  The index symbol is $ICJ.

Thursday, Nov 5th

*  Yesterday's postal service noted concerns over risk/reward as well as Wednesday's merchandise offered a pullback, equally nosotros closed with fewer than 50% of SPX stocks higher upwards their three-day moving averages.  We closed close levels that take away hold been associated with short-term buying opportunities (see nautical chart below) as well as take away hold bounced higher overnight, then buying weakness that holds higher upwards the overnight lows as well as at to the lowest degree testing the recent highs is a reasonable strategy.

*  Yesterday's movement higher inwards rates inwards the wake of the Fed chair's statements contributed to USD strength, commodity weakness, as well as weakness inwards stocks.  That blueprint is worth keeping an oculus on going forward.  When markets merchandise thematically--multiple property classes moving inwards a coherent pattern--that merchandise is by as well as large supported yesteryear large institutions as well as volition take away hold only about legs, short-term.  Only watching the musical instrument you're trading loses a lot of information.

*  I'm too increasingly cognizant of how many directional moves teach off the dry soil during European as well as Asian hours.  Indeed, the median movement from opened upwards to unopen inwards SPY has been close the same equally the overnight movement during 2015.  Anyone limiting stock index trading to U.S. hours effectively cuts the chance laid inwards half.

Wednesday, Nov 4th

*  Stocks by as well as large continued their clit on Tuesday, moving to novel highs for this move.  I used the occasion to take away hold profits.  It's non that I intend the bull run has ended for good.  Rather, I'm non inwards dear with the risk/reward hither after a enterprise movement higher.  Specifically, nosotros are non entirely overbought on my breadth measures (more than 70% of stocks higher upwards their curt as well as medium term moving averages), but yesterday displayed waning breadth relative to Mon for the SPX shares.

*  With observe to breadth, it's noteworthy that nosotros registered 410 stocks making fresh three-month highs yesterday, which is soundless below the publish of novel highs seen final week.  One argue I'm non overly concerned yesteryear this seeming breadth difference is that then few stocks are making fresh 3 calendar month lows--only 65.  Returns inwards SPY tend to hold upwards best when the publish of stocks making novel lows are real high as well as real low.  You need to run across an increasing publish of shares displaying weakness earlier the marketplace position equally a whole turns over.  We're non seeing that then far.  What we're seeing is a rotational market, with formerly weak sectors, such equally liberate energy shares, forthwith perking up.

*  Below is a nautical chart of breadth for the SPX stocks.  It captures the percent of stocks trading higher upwards their 3, 5, 10, as well as 20-day moving averages.  (Raw information from Index Indicators).  Note that after a breadth thrust higher next the tardily September lows, we've by as well as large stayed higher upwards 50%.  Pullbacks inwards the breadth mensurate take away hold been practiced entries on the long side.  As long equally nosotros teach dips inwards the breadth mensurate occurring at successively higher toll lows, I consider the uptrend to hold upwards intact.

Tuesday, Nov 3rd

*  Yesterday's postal service noted the possibility of broadening buying inwards stocks as well as that is just what nosotros got, with little caps catching upwards to larger caps as well as SPX making novel highs for this move.  Indeed, yesterday was a poster tyke for an upside tendency day, with a skewed positive distribution of NYSE TICK values through the day.  Here's a post that outlines 4 keys to an upside tendency day.  Recognizing those days relatively early on inwards the session tin ship away hold upwards real valuable.

*  Below y'all tin ship away run across the breakout inwards the cumulative uptick/downtick trouble (red line; 9/25/15 - present), which represents upticks minus downticks for all stocks, all exchanges.  As long equally we're making novel highs on that measure, I top on to thin to the long side.

*  H5N1 breakdown of upticks vs. downticks for yesterday's merchandise institute that what was then meaning close the tendency twenty-four hours was the close full absence of selling pressure, rather than a huge jump with buyers.  (This was too evident inwards yesterday's relatively small-scale volume).  Indeed, since 2012, I've seen entirely 21 days with similar levels of depression selling.  Five days later, SPY was upwards 17 times, downward 4 for an average gain of +.51%, though, interestingly, at that topographic point was no item border for the side yesteryear side day.

Monday, Nov 2nd

*  Stocks experienced a tardily twenty-four hours selloff on Fri as well as extended the selling overnight earlier stabilizing a bit.  We top on to run across large cap shares (SPX) brand higher lows as well as higher highs and, then far, the recent selling does non modify that pattern.  Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Index of little as well as midcap shares has shown relative weakness, but all of that powerfulness hold upwards business office of an extended, flattish correction (see below).  Should little cap clit bring together the larger caps, inwards keeping with year-end seasonals, nosotros could run across a melt-up inwards stocks.  I don't listen many people talking close that possibility.  My chore equally a trader is to hold upwards aware of a diversity of scenarios as well as the testify that would back upwards each; non to impose my predilection on markets.  I take away hold been operating with an supposition that we've already seen a momentum peak for stocks, but I'm opened upwards to revising that view--and renewed involvement inwards smaller caps would sure as shooting spark such a revision.

*  On a 6 calendar month as well as one-year basis, raw materials shares--stocks related to the commodity sector--have been the weakest yesteryear quite a margin.  Interestingly, however, over the yesteryear month, those raw materials stocks take away hold been marketplace position leaders, per the nautical chart below from the first-class FinViz site.  Commodities are sensitive to patterns of global growth, then I'm watching those--and commodity related sectors such equally XLB as well as XLE--quite closely.

Info!! Putting This Marketplace Rally Into Perspective

I know when the bears are hurting, because out come upwardly the daggers for the primal banks.  I've been inward the concern quite a piece in addition to I've nonetheless to listen a trader attribute his or her profits to primal depository fiscal establishment manipulations.  

That beingness said, the ferocity of this rally has taken many traders yesteryear surprise, in addition to that sure includes me.  My most recent human face at marketplace position breadth suggested that marketplace position strength was genuinely expanding, non contracting equally it had done from much of June through September.  I suggested roughly give dorsum was to move expected, equally many of my measures were approaching levels associated amongst yesteryear momentum peaks, simply the tidings from Nippon on Fri entirely lifted stocks further.

Meanwhile, correlations in addition to volatility remain high--not what nosotros commonly meet when rallies are sputtering in addition to almost to plough over.  We are accustomed to seeing stocks autumn on increases inward volatility in addition to ascension on decreasing volatility.  In price of realized volatility--not the implied volatility mensurate of VIX--this has non been the case.  We conduct maintain rallied on actual toll volatility that is much greater than would commonly move expected at the electrical current degree of VIX.

While at that spot are clear risks to assuming "this fourth dimension is different", at that spot are likewise risks inward assuming that the hereafter volition faithfully replicate the past.  This rally has non been replicating recent ones, in addition to that is why I in addition to others conduct maintain been surprised.  In the past, a several 24-hour interval pullback during an uptrend has provided a reasonably proficient risk:reward entry for traders wanting to ride the trend.  Waiting for the pullback inward the electrical current marketplace position would conduct maintain meant missing the rally altogether.  Short-term overbought levels conduct maintain stayed overbought far to a greater extent than persistently than usual.  To give simply i example, nosotros conduct maintain had eleven forthwith trading sessions inward which to a greater extent than than one-half of all SPX shares conduct maintain unopen higher upwardly their three-day moving averages.

The higher upwardly charts puts this rally into perspective.  Note the cumulative trouble of upticks vs. downticks for all NYSE stocks (top chart) in addition to for all stocks trading on U.S. exchanges (including NASDAQ, NYSE MKT LLC, in addition to regional exchanges).  In both cases, nosotros meet a dramatic turnaround in addition to persistent buying across the wide arrive at of shares.  Interestingly, the broadest mensurate of TICK, representing all U.S. shares, has made the strongest comeback, reflecting renewed buying involvement amid smaller cap shares, which had been laggards.  

The bottom nautical chart shows the explosion of stocks making novel three-month highs vs. lows across all U.S. mutual stocks.  When looking at 52-week novel highs/lows, that mensurate is the strongest we've seen since slow 2013.  This reinforces the before determination that the electrical current marketplace position has been gaining strength, non topping out.

In short, the information back upwardly the notion that this is a fresh bull marketplace position leg, non a bounce inward a topping market.  If that is the case, nosotros tin human face farther toll gains, fifty-fifty afterward momentum has crested.  I volition move tracking the higher upwardly measures in addition to others to update the rally's trajectory.
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Info!! What Makes You Lot Unique Equally A Trader?

So we're walking inwards the sometime department of Bergen, Kingdom of Norway (Bryggen) as well as come upward across a Mexican eating seat advertising its nutrient inwards a unique manner. From the looks of it, the sign was bringing people in.

Whether it's inwards marketing or inwards trading markets, uniqueness counts for a lot.  It's non ever slow to predict who volition brand coin equally a trader, but it's non hard to predict who won't.  The ones who won't succeed are the ones who are similar all the others.  They await at the same things as well as merchandise the same ideas.  I've worked inwards many trading firms, from prop shops to hedge funds.  Across settings, the correlation of returns alongside traders is disconcertingly high.  When given the liberty to brand their ain decisions, many traders produce upward one's heed to abdicate critical thought as well as follow others.

In general, uniqueness is expressed inwards 2 ways: past times looking at novel as well as unlike information as well as past times assembling information inwards novel as well as unlike ways.  When I replaced fourth dimension on the X-axis of my charts with upshot time, I redefined marketplace information as well as could as well as therefore persuasion the information inwards a fresh manner.  For example, the volatility of volume-based bars is quite unlike from the realized as well as implied volatilities that nosotros usually track; the cycles that appear inwards upshot fourth dimension are wholly unlike from what nosotros tin run into inwards chronological time.

Of course, beingness unique does non guarantee beingness successful; it's exactly a agency of generating to a greater extent than as well as unlike hypotheses.  Some of these volition autumn flat; others volition behave fruit.  Being a trader is non therefore unlike from beingness an inventor.  The non bad uncovering oftentimes follows scores of disappointments.  If you lot can't await at novel possibilities as well as proceed innovating, however, the successful innovation volition never follow.

I late wrote well-nigh strategies for constructively dealing with hard markets.  Our natural tendencies Pb us to nigh downwards when the footing becomes less certainly as well as when drawdowns extend.  That, however, is when nosotros most postulate to travel opened upward minded as well as expand our horizons. 

So hither is a uncomplicated self-assessment:

1)  What information are you lot looking at that others are non considering?

2)  What ways of assembling information are you lot employing that are unlike from what others are doing?

If I were a rational, prospective investor looking to dorsum emerging talent, what could you lot present me that would convince me that you're genuinely doing something that is unlike as well as promising?

If you lot can't sell a prospective investor on what you're doing, maybe you lot shouldn't travel buying into it yourself.  

Our fourth dimension as well as working capital missive of the alphabet are besides precious to travel wasted on "me-too".

Further Reading:  How to Cope With Market Uncertainty
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