Info!! Pre-Opening Briefing: A Glance At 3 Sectors

We tried for novel highs inwards the S&P 500 Index yesterday earlier falling dorsum into the multi-day trading range. Three sectors that had led the rally from March through early on May accept non been looking potent lately inwards the wake of ascension brusk as well as long term involvement rates: banks ($BKX; minute from top) as well as homebuilders (XHB; minute nautical chart from bottom). Meanwhile, consumer discretionary stocks (XLY; bottom chart) are acting toppy, non to the lowest degree because of ascension fuel prices likewise every bit those higher involvement rates. In a potent economical recovery, nosotros should live on seeing vigorous relative forcefulness alongside these sectors; that's non been happening over the by month.

8:13 AM CT - Note that we're trading inwards the middle of a multi-day range, with sellers dominating inwards the overnight marketplace on the heels of a potent the US dollar as well as lower commodity prices. I'm watching closely to run into if nosotros tin rest below yesterday's lows as well as the overnight highs to brand a run for the multi-day lows vs. merchandise inside yesterday's hit (and brand a run for the Th pivot).
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Info!! Pre-Opening Briefing: Continuing The Trend

Here's how nosotros await (bottom chart) inwards the S&P 500 e-mini (ES) contract going into the 7:30 AM CT jobless claim numbers. Note the resistance betwixt 912 too 914, equally nosotros proceed inwards a short-term downtrend mode. If the 7:30 AM let on cannot motion us inwards a higher house that resistance level, I'll hold upward looking for a exam of Wednesday's lows below 900. Note that we'll stimulate got a few opportunities to motion this morning, alongside Treasury Secretary Geithner talking at 8:30 AM CT too Leading Economic Indicators too Philadelphia Fed reports at ix AM CT.

I respect it worth tracking involvement rates too the dollar inwards answer to these releases too events too correlating those moves to stocks to option upward on emerging too continuing intermarket themes. In general, if the numbers cannot motion us out of a value make that was established upward to that point, I assume that the tendency that has been inwards house volition remain intact. Once again, I'll hold upward tracking all of this intraday via Twitter (follow the tweets here).

8:15 AM CT - Update: We traded higher on the jobless claim numbers, simply stimulate got stayed firmly inside the overnight range. Note inwards the middle Market Delta nautical chart that we're directly trading inwards a higher house the day's volume-weighted average cost (VWAP; reddish line), equally the dollar has weakened versus the euro too 10-year rates stimulate got bumped higher. I'll hold upward watching to run across how nosotros merchandise approximately VWAP to handicap the odds of taking out Wednesday's lows inwards early on morning time merchandise vs rest inside the overnight make trade.

10:24 AM CT - I've added a fresh Market Delta nautical chart (top) to exhibit how we've been accepting value inwards a higher house the VWAP (red line) too approximately the 914/915 ES resistance. This raises the odds that, rather than trap bulls, we'll level out bears past times taking the marketplace inwards a higher house that resistance. I'm watching TICK too intermarket themes (weak dollar, potent 10-year rates) to run across if that scenario unfolds.
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Info!! Pre-Opening Briefing: Watching Those Themes

Treasury rates are upwardly in ane trial again, amongst the 10-year over 3.9%, merely the dollar is off its lows vs. the euro, stone oil has stepped dorsum a bit, as well as we're seeing our starting fourth dimension selling inward stocks later a real potent overnight market. The selling has position us dorsum to the preopen VWAP (red delineate of piece of job above), equally nosotros encounter book accumulating betwixt 949 as well as 954 inward the ES contract. How nosotros bring or refuse value at that book surface area inward early on merchandise volition laid upwardly the musical note for the day.
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Info!! Pre-Opening Briefing: Watching Ranges Together With Intermarket Correlations

Above yous tin run into how a multi-day hit is setting upward inward the S&P 500 e-mini (ES) futures, amongst resistance only about the 897.50 grade together with back upward at yesterday's lows only about 882.50. Note that the lower terminate of the hit is too virtually the lower terminate of a much larger hit defined past times June's cost highs together with lows. With novel 20-day lows expanding (see recent Twitter post), I would await to run into a examination of these lows if nosotros cannot intermission together with rest inward a higher house that 897.50 area. I would too endure a buyer of those lows if nosotros cannot farther expand 20-day lows together with run into weaker downside momentum on whatsoever test. Meanwhile, proceed an oculus on the US of America dollar together with on commodity prices; those bring been moving pretty reliably amongst stocks together with have, at times, provided some useful tells regarding intermarket take in (stronger dollar together with weaker commodities accompanying weaker stocks together with vice versa).
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Info!! Pre-Opening Briefing: The Context Of The Market

the tendency condition of the S&P 500 sectors in addition to the condition of the marketplace indicators posted weekly. Both demo that nosotros are inwards an intermediate-term trading range, inwards a marketplace that has been losing momentum in addition to strength.

As you lot tin move meet higher upward (middle chart), this morning's forcefulness places us virtually the pinnacle of a several hateful solar daytime range. Even farther out (bottom chart) nosotros are trading at the upper terminate of a multiweek hit defined past times the highs of 6/19 in addition to the lows of 6/23. How nosotros merchandise relative to the resistance at the tops of these ranges volition move of crucial importance today in addition to this week. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 failure to sustain forcefulness higher upward those highs would select me looking for retracement dorsum into that range, toward the 900-area midpoint. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 successful upside breakout would target the June highs. Either way, standing virtually the pinnacle of an extended hit should fix a worthwhile trade. I'll rails my thinking on this alongside intraday Twitter posts (follow here).

9:37 AM CT - I added the pinnacle Market Delta nautical chart to demo how nosotros traded downward toward the overnight lows inwards ES earlier rallying furiously in addition to taking out the overnight highs. Note, however, that both the NASDAQ in addition to Russell Indexes are below their opening cost levels. The large cap stocks are leading this morning; to sustain an uptrend, they'll require to convey the others along. I'm watching TICK for signs of broader marketplace strength. With book at the marketplace offering handily exceeding book at the bid inwards ES, it is hard to sell this marketplace despite electrical flow non-confirmations.
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Info!! Midday Briefing For March 16Th: Awaiting The Fed

Going into the Fed announcement, I'm watching the 1149-1150 expanse inwards the ES futures closely, equally that represented the pre-opening high prior to the forenoon upside breakout. With solely 728 to a greater extent than advancing than declining stocks on the NYSE, that breakout was less than fully convincing, simply it has been supported yesteryear full general forcefulness across other conduct a opportunity assets. The 1152-1153 expanse has shaped upward equally to a greater extent than or less term resistance over the final few days; I'll live on watching to come across how book behaves--and how it's distributed at offering vs. bid--should nosotros brand a piece of occupation for those highs.

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