Showing posts sorted by relevance for query is-there-opportunity-in-market. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query is-there-opportunity-in-market. Sort by date Show all posts

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Info!! Best Practices Inwards Trading: Edifice A Learning Network Via Social Media

One of the greatest psychological challenges of trading is a cognitive, non an emotional, one.  It is the challenge of bandwidth:  our limitations inward processing large amounts of data at whatever given time.  Many portfolio managers I've worked alongside convey developed ways of expanding their bandwidth, including edifice out teams to assist alongside inquiry in addition to execution; connecting alongside savvy peers to hash out marketplace ideas; in addition to staying inward impact alongside colleagues on the trading floor.  Turning trading into a squad sport increases the break of eyes in addition to ears on markets in addition to is valuable inward spotting emerging trading ideas.  How many times convey I observed traders in addition to hence focused on their item trades that they missy what is happening inward the broader market?  Tunnel vision is a cracking agency to acquire blindsided inward markets.

What social media is accomplishing is a leveling of the bandwidth playing champaign for private traders.  Most independent traders create non convey a trading flooring to plow to for marketplace coloring in addition to cannot afford to construct out teams of analysts.  Through social media, however, they tin plow their trading into a virtual squad sport.  Cultivating a focused network of insightful peers adds to the eyes in addition to ears on markets in addition to sparks thinking almost fresh sources of opportunity.

This is why edifice a social learning network is a best practise inward trading.  This is a network of peer traders who value your input in addition to furnish yous alongside valuable observations in addition to insights into markets.  The fundamental to creating an effective social learning network is selectivity.  H5N1 cracking bargain of the commentary via tweets, weblog posts, in addition to chat is high on noise, depression on signal.  You desire a network that provides really high indicate value.

A cracking house to starting fourth dimension a learning network is Stock Twits.  The Stock Twits feed is a curated stream of tweets alongside high data value.  Via the feed, you'll notice sure as shooting contributors come upwards up in i lawsuit to a greater extent than in addition to again.  These are oft high value sources of data yous volition desire inward your network.  Of item value are the Sat $STUDY sessions from the Stock Twits feed that lead specific tweets in addition to links for their valuable content.  In general, the $STUDY postings offering a wide arrive at of observations, analyses, in addition to information.  You'll discovery item adept links via founder Howard Lindzon in addition to head of community evolution Sean McLaughlin

Yet or in addition to hence other house to construct your learning network is through sites that comb through content on the fiscal spider web in addition to curate selections.  Abnormal Returns offers a wide arrive at of links daily in addition to each calendar week selects hand podcasts in addition to highlights the most pop links of the week.  This too is a cracking agency to discovery valuable sources of data that tin travel out your regular listening in addition to reading.  On the podcast side, at that topographic point are the offerings from Michael Covel in addition to Barry Ritholtz that characteristic interviews alongside hand professionals inward finance.  Other first-class sources of links are Josh Brown via The Reformed Broker blog in addition to Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture site.    

The acid examination for whatever improver to your learning network is that what yous read or head to truly does contribute fresh in addition to useful perspectives to your agreement in addition to trading of markets.  There is much to live on said for amusement in addition to it's slowly to acquire into surface readings of many sources, exactly what is ultimately valuable is what feeds your head.  You can't solve fresh puzzles unless yous convey the correct pieces.  And yous won't acquire all the pieces if you're locked within your head.  Through social media, yous tin displace from inquiry to edifice a virtual inquiry team.  It doesn't affair how emotionally controlled in addition to disciplined yous are:  yous can't merchandise the opportunities yous never see.

Further Reading:  Finding Trading Mentorship

Sunday, December 9, 2018

Info!! Overcoming The Triggers To Pathetic Trading

I've been doing quite a few destination of twelvemonth reviews amongst traders I operate with.  Here is an lawsuit of something a trader mightiness say every bit purpose of their review:

"I took also many trades this past times twelvemonth in addition to didn't brand the most of my best ideas.  I involve to boundary my seat out of trades inwards 2018 in addition to size upwardly my best ones."

That's swell every bit a goal.  The query remains:  How are you lot going to brand these changes?

There is much to a greater extent than to changing conduct patterns than exactly stating goals.  Goal setting is solely ane footstep inwards the alter process.  Creating a innovation for making the alter comes next.

Where traders autumn brusk inwards planning is that they thought their pitiable trading every bit *the* problem, when it near ever is the result of an actual problem.  If the trader is taking also many trades, the query becomes:  What triggers this blueprint of overtrading?

It's the triggers that are the actual problems.

This is a telephone substitution insight.

Here's about other crucial insight:  Your best trading occurs inwards a distinctive state of heed in addition to body.  Trading good is state-dependent.

Triggers sabotage trading past times nudging us out of our ideal states for processing marketplace information.

When nosotros drib dead frustrated or bored or distracted, nosotros move into a dissimilar cognitive, emotional, in addition to physical state.  In that novel state, nosotros oftentimes procedure information reactively, impulsively.  This is truthful whether we're inwards a heated marital argument, driving inwards heavy traffic, bored inwards a deadening market, or feeling the pressure level of functioning on the concluding hole of a golf game tournament.  The province of affairs triggers a state-shift in addition to that colors what nosotros do in addition to how nosotros do it.

So dorsum to our trader who wishes to overcome overtrading.  Good intentions in addition to efforts at "discipline" won't cutting it.  What is needed is a careful analysis of the situations that are triggering the overtrading, so that these tin last anticipated in addition to intercepted.  If I know that a losing merchandise to laid out the twenty-four hr catamenia tin trigger fright in addition to negativity in addition to forbid me from properly acting on subsequent opportunity, thus I tin educate a routine for constructive self-talk afterwards whatsoever early on loss.  

In other words, we offset drib dead practiced at identifying our triggers in addition to thus nosotros progress past times pausing from what we're doing to reset our mindframe in addition to furnish to the state inwards which nosotros do our best trading.  Your border inwards markets is never *just* your ideas in addition to research.  Your border is also your powerfulness to clearly run across those ideas play out in addition to deed upon them inwards the correct way.  The correct state of heed mightiness non last sufficient for winning inwards markets, but it is necessary.       

Our triggers distract us from our best ideas in addition to taking wages of these.  Truly, nosotros cannot achieve large things if we're distracted past times piffling things.  When nosotros fear our triggers to a greater extent than than nosotros fright missing marketplace movement, we've taken a huge footstep toward gaining self-control in addition to consistency inwards our trading.  There are skills nosotros tin acquire to intercept triggers in addition to state shifts in addition to speedily pick out ourselves dorsum to our trading equilibrium.  Developing those skills is ane of the most powerful plans nosotros tin do for supercharging functioning inwards the novel year.


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Monday, February 17, 2020

Info!! Turning Trading Rules As Well As Plans Into Commitments

Saturday's post on next trading plans emphasized that our actions are intimately related to our states of mind. When nosotros undergo the world shifts, our perspectives change, in addition to those tin alter our priorities. What seemed urgent inwards i frame of heed becomes lost inwards another. This most ofttimes occurs during trading when profit/loss (P/L) concerns accept front end in addition to middle stage, obscuring our best lay plans for our positions.

The links from the before post comprehend a multifariousness of reasons why traders lose their discipline. There is, however, about other argue why traders detect it hard to follow the plans they set: their plans aren't really plans.

To sympathise this, consider the deviation betwixt plans in addition to intentions. If I enjoin myself that I postulate to popular off to the gym in addition to travel into shape, that's an intention. It is non a plan. If I really bring together a gym, sign upward for classes, lay upward a schedule for exercise, in addition to do weekly goals for how ofttimes I'll exercise in addition to how much weight I'll lose, that is a plan.

Similarly, I powerfulness intend to accept my married adult woman on a trip that volition assist her acquire away from function stress. That is really dissimilar from really planning the trip past times discussing it, creating an itinerary, shopping for best airfares, etc.

Intentions are thoughts of hereafter actions, ofttimes accompanied past times "should". Plans require action--taking steps inwards the acquaint to accomplish the desired end--and they ofttimes receive got a social in addition to motivational component. H5N1 occupation concern plan, for instance, is much to a greater extent than than intended success; it tin last vital inwards attracting investors in addition to cardinal employees. Because intentions lack committed action, they are to a greater extent than ofttimes than non weaker than plans. We're probable to interruption a New Year's intention, exactly less probable to interruption those opor-garai plans i time they've been formulated amongst a spouse.

Many traders formulate intentions for their trades in addition to and hence wonder why they receive got veered from their "plan". When I enquire to run across their plan, however, at that spot is cypher written down; nor is at that spot anything specific that has been planned. To last sure, high frequency traders are non going to formulate detailed plans for each trade. In their case, trading rules close such matters every bit execution, sizing, in addition to opportunity command would accept the house of unique plans for each position. Often, however, I'll listen from "scalpers" that they've violated their discipline. When I enquire which rules they've violated, they cannot plough over a gear upward answer.

My response is that you lot can't violate a dependent that isn't at that spot to start out with. The work is non that an excess of emotion interfered amongst their plans in addition to rules. Rather, they were never sufficiently planful in addition to rule-governed to start out with.

The unmarried greatest way to construct dependent is to plough rules in addition to plans into commitments. That way that you lot receive got to plough over those rules in addition to plans distinct life of their own. The to a greater extent than you lot shout out upward of them, expect forrad to them, utter them to others, write them down, flat yourself on them, vantage yourself for them--the to a greater extent than existent they become. You are most probable to abandon rules in addition to plans that haven't been internalized every bit commitments.

Please cheque out the comment of reader Adam next the post on learning to shout out upward similar the herd, exactly non follow the herd. You'll attain a valuable lesson inwards turning rules in addition to plans into routines in addition to commitments. Adam's observation regarding the value of checklists inwards high opportunity professions is excellent. He explains, "Trading is a affair of repeating over in addition to over i time again behaviors that trap errors before they are released into the market".

Intentions aren't rigid plenty to trap errors. To grab the mistakes before they're released, you lot postulate the emotional forcefulness of commitments in addition to the reliability of routines. Turning intentions into checklists in addition to checklists into commitments is a groovy way to the world yourself inwards best trading practices.
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Monday, January 14, 2019

Info!! Every Work Is An Outdated Solution

One of the offset lessons I learned equally a psychologist is that our problems mostly correspond coping efforts that get got long since lost their usefulness together with that directly convey unwanted consequences.  This is a powerful concept, together with ane that is non good appreciated past times traders.

A classic instance would last a mortal who is emotionally or physically abused equally a child.  Good coping for the kid is to travel past times along rubber distance from others together with avoid getting hurt.  Good coping powerfulness too last blaming oneself for the abuse to remain inward the expert graces of parents who are the assist providers.  Later inward life, keeping a distance from others together with blaming oneself for negative outcomes acquire problems, interfering amongst relationships together with happiness.  But problems are non the problem; the employment is overlearned coping that no longer fits your life situation.

This is why psychological modify is non together with hence uncomplicated equally calling upon motivation, positive thinking, mindfulness, etc. etc. inward ridding ourselves of employment patterns.  If our problems correspond coping efforts, we'll alone modify if nosotros notice superior, substitute coping strategies.  The mortal who was wound inward childhood needs to notice new, constructive ways of finding security together with closeness.  Until in that location is novel coping, in that location volition last no powerfulness or willingness to percentage ways amongst what worked inward the past.

A instant affair I learned early on inward my career equally a shrink was that well-nigh people don't get got lots of problems, though it frequently feels that way.  Rather, they get got a unmarried number that impacts multiple areas of life.  If they tin dismiss resolve that issue, the resolution brings positive gains at work, inward relationships, inward mood, etc.  

If you lot get got a recurring employment inward your trading, it may demo upwards inward unlike ways inward unlike marketplace weather condition together with it may look equally though you lot get got dozens of problems. Consider the possibility that in that location is ane principal issue--and that number is non a problem, but an test at coping that is non working for you lot inward trading situations.

For instance, pulling away from situations that are stressful is a slap-up agency to avoid vulnerability.  I instinctively take from situations that I notice to last dysfunctional.  If I can't physically leave, I take emotionally together with acquire distant.  I tin dismiss experience that wall travel past times up.  In many situations, putting upwards the wall has worked really well.  At several situations inward my career, when business office politics became hugely dysfunctional, I kept the wall upwards for an extended fourth dimension together with was able to brand the well-nigh of my job.  I engaged people inward a cordial manner, but otherwise had zilch to produce amongst them.

In markets, however, you lot can't only line dorsum when things hitting the fan.  It's ane affair to line away from uncooperative people; about other affair to bail from an uncooperative market!  Using the coping from the project province of affairs leads to all sorts of problems inward markets, including exiting markets at the incorrect fourth dimension together with failing to travel inward markets when there's opportunity.  In my ain trading, I had to acquire novel ways of coping amongst stressful markets earlier I could consistently human activeness upon my best-laid plans.  Clearly defining my downside inward advance together with mentally rehearsing the loss scenario together with hence that I knew I could alive amongst a bad result enabled me to tolerate stress without resorting to the old, avoidant ways.

So hither are a few expert questions for self-assessment:

1)  What are the problems that recur inward your trading?
2)  What negative outcomes are your problems trying to avoid?
3)  In your best trading, how produce you lot care to notice amend ways of dealing amongst those potential negative outcomes?
4)  How tin dismiss you lot rehearse those amend ways of coping inward real-time trading situations together with hence that you lot won't autumn into old, outdated coping modes?

Every employment is a failed solution to a challenging situation.  Once nosotros select problems equally coping efforts, nosotros opened upwards ourselves to a search for new, amend solutions.  We never actually acquire rid of our problems.  We only substitute novel coping efforts that lay the groundwork for tomorrow's problems.

Further Reading:  Madness together with Trading
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Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Risk! Three Aot Members Portion Their Progress!

Hey folks!

I got these 3 emails from 3 dissimilar AOT members of late in addition to I wanted to part their progress alongside y'all hence far!! 

So if you've been struggling lately or going thru a frustrating stage or perchance feeling similar you're hitting a "plateau" inwards your trading career right now.... Please read these 3 letters below!

If they tin practise it, YOU tin practise it too! 
No excuses! 



So hither y'all go!! 


Hi stewie,

I've been a Member for roughly half dozen weeks.  I was fed upwards alongside taking entries on intermission outs, next sensible in addition to recognized criteria, so watching the toll plow roughly inwards the chop in addition to getting stopped out.  So I was peculiarly looking tor a service that would assist learn me swing trading, rather than longer term tendency following, to live able to brand coin inwards all markets, fifty-fifty choppy markets such equally we've experienced over the lastly few months.  Boy, has Stewie met my expectations in addition to more!

Separating the trading results from the education, the results have got been real adept - high probability trades alongside smaller draw-downs on the losers.  I would have got made real adept coin merely have got been taking little positions spell I construct my trust inwards the service.  Given the peachy supply on opportunity that I've seen I'm at ane time railroad train to motion upwards my seat size to what I regards equally total positions (I'm a cautious chap!).

Turning to the learning, that has been no less impressive.  Stewie seems to live on a mission to part all he knows in addition to educate his Members inwards all aspects of his craft.  What I especially similar is how uses the actual trades along alongside dependent specific emails to acquire his message across.   I beloved how unproblematic in addition to straightforward he keeps his teaching.

Since I started trading (rather than investing) lastly twelvemonth I've read in addition to heard countless times from greatly respected traders close how essential it is to live patient in addition to hold off for the high probability merchandise inwards the right market.  I have got nodded sagely to myself in addition to so gone on to snatch at whatever has taken my fancy!   However watching how Stewie makes such adept coin spell making fewer trades, waiting non solely for the right merchandise merely for the right merchandise against a backdrop of a favourable market, has hopefully brought domicile to me the Jesse Livermore tilt that:

“After spending many years inwards Wall Street in addition to afterwards making in addition to losing millions of dollars I desire to say y'all this:  It never was my thinking that made the large coin for me. It e'er was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!”

If this takes concur inwards my trading so everything else I acquire from Stewie volition live a bonus!

Thanks for all y'all practise in addition to your generosity inwards sharing what y'all know.

Jim



Hi Stew,

Hope all is well! My apologies inwards advance for this lengthy email! Pls read when y'all detect time.

I wanted to accept a minute and thank/update y'all for all the fantastic trades this month. In spite of the chop, staying patient in addition to taking the best setups has helped me tremendously this month. 

In a nutshell, I'm upwards $5,000 this calendar month inwards profitsI cashed out 3K out of this line of piece of work organisation human relationship afterwards taking this snapshot below. This is the highest payout I've received from the market ever and am real grateful I'm having a adept month.

Over the yesteryear iv months, I was literally inwards a CHOP inwards damage of performance. Had some peachy trades hither in addition to there, merely losing inwards commissions overall in addition to no existent gains overall. Kept giving them gains back. There were 2 master copy reasons. 
1) I was taking WAY TOO many hateful solar daytime trades (not per plan/no setup/getting stopped or wiggled out of positions).
2) Expecting a huge % win inwards a brusk menstruum of time, in addition to belongings trades longer than needed. 
Risk was defined, so I didnt blow whatever accounts, merely definitely didnt brand whatever coin net.

I have got learnt a TON over the yesteryear few months from AoT compared to what I've learnt inwards yesteryear 6  years of trading struggle. To set this to role finally without giving up, I added some trial upper-case missive of the alphabet into Robinhood to execute my options trades. No commissions in addition to max 3 hateful solar daytime trades in v days helps my case. 

My equity bend looks similar this since I started trading hither on August 1st. Initial capital: 2,000 (trial). Today its at $7000 (I have got withdrawn $1500 over the yesteryear seven days equally I was seeing gains, $1500 afterwards this snapshot). So line of piece of work organisation human relationship is literally upwards 250% (dont heed the % inwards snapshot, its basically a bug). This is non the green for me in addition to I don't desire to acquire greedy, so I did accept cash out to proceed myself humble.



I played all of AoT recommendations equally good equally little positions inwards many charts that y'all posted merely didnt play (GOOGL, PYPL, NFLX etc.). 85% of these were 2-3 hateful solar daytime swing trades. Robinhood has made it hard for me to periodical since it has to live manually, merely I'll exhibit y'all the periodical based surgery stats ane time I have got it ready!

Things I volition practise moving forward:
1) No setup = No trade
2) No revenge, chase or overtrading
3) Reduce expectations - to a greater extent than singles than domicile runs ( i run across domicile runs volition come upwards alongside some of your best setups automatically!)
4) No involve to grow line of piece of work organisation human relationship to genuinely brand coin from the market
5) Reduce hateful solar daytime trades equally much equally possible since I cant monitor the markets (this is NOT my fourth dimension frame)
5) Stay humble, proceed greed inwards banking concern check in addition to rinse-repeat 1-6

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 HUGEEEE THANK YOU to y'all for getting me dorsum on the right track. You are an fantastic trader, fantabulous mentor, peachy entertainer (cooking + soccer + trading + treatment the trolls lol) in addition to to a greater extent than importantly, a adept trading buddy :). 

Will proceed y'all posted.

N.C. 





Hi Stewie,


Just wanted to give y'all a quick update on my progress at ane time that I’ve completed 3 months at AOT.

First, desire to part the argue why I’m doing this: 

This is my granddaughter Alanna(not going to part Amy's moving-picture exhibit of her granddaughter of course!). She’s almost 3. I lost my chore inwards Apr in addition to have got been agonizing over whether or non to accept some other fourth dimension consuming, travel-intensive job. I’ve made the conclusion to pass these side yesteryear side twosome of years alongside her instead alongside trading for income. I’m excited in addition to a fleck terrified merely my gut tells me that this is the right decision.

So, onto the progress! What I’m most happy close is that I’ve increased my trading skills, designing recognition, in addition to discipline. I even so brand some stupid mistakes merely they are getting fewer in addition to alongside less disastrous results.

I don’t proceed rails of pct wins because I’m trying non to focus on P/L merely rather focus on the skills learned. The coin volition come upwards equally a outcome of good, consistent trading. For the yesteryear iii months, I’ve been able to wire cash out to my banking concern line of piece of work organisation human relationship an average of $3500 each month. Still non where I desire to live merely I know that volition come upwards if I execute the trades correctly in addition to gradually increment my opportunity equally I gain confidence.

I can’t give cheers y'all enough. Your guidance has non solely helped me meliorate my surgery merely to a greater extent than importantly, it’s given me the gift of fourth dimension alongside my granddaughter. That is incredibly precious in addition to I humbly give cheers you.

You rock! If you’re ever on the East Coast, I owe y'all a huge hug!!

Amy dissimilar AOT members of late in addition to I wanted to part their progress alongside y'all hence far Risk! 3 AOT Members Share Their Progress! 






Hope these 3 letters have got fired y'all upwards in addition to motivated!!! 

Happy Trading!! 




Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Info!! Recognizing When You're Incorrect Inwards A Trade

re interpreting cost in addition to indicator activity ane agency in addition to the marketplace smacks us the other agency Info!! Recognizing When You're Wrong In Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 Trade
re interpreting cost in addition to indicator activity ane agency in addition to the marketplace smacks us the other agency Info!! Recognizing When You're Wrong In Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 Trade
re interpreting cost in addition to indicator activity ane agency in addition to the marketplace smacks us the other agency Info!! Recognizing When You're Wrong In Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 Trade
Sometimes we're simply wrong. We're interpreting cost in addition to indicator activity ane agency in addition to the marketplace smacks us the other way. Key to trading survival is getting out of the merchandise rapidly when it goes sour. Key to trading success is using the failed merchandise to revise your stance in addition to formulate new, promising merchandise ideas.

So let's expect at Friday's market. No interrogation well-nigh it, I was leaning the incorrect agency inwards the belatedly forenoon equally I watched the marketplace betwixt telephone calls amongst traders. If yous click on the transcend nautical chart (ES, three minute), you'll come across where the X's are that I was looking at a rounding bottom process. The TICK (middle chart) hitting its depression indicate betwixt 10:00 AM in addition to 10:30 AM CT, in addition to past times the fourth dimension nosotros approached that 11:00 AM period, it seemed that selling was drying upwards in addition to nosotros were making a higher low, simply beneath the 20-period volume-weighted moving average.

So things were adept on the long side: nosotros moved smartly higher upwards that moving average, in addition to TICK made a novel high on the movement betwixt 11:00 in addition to 11:30 AM. We should live able to convey out those highs from betwixt ix in addition to 9:30 AM in addition to rest higher upwards our moving average if this thought is solid.

Well, expect simply ane bar subsequently at the bottom chart. We acquire cruel selling on twice the recent book in addition to greatly expanded volatility, propelling us below the moving average. What next?

The phrase that goes through my caput at these times is "This shouldn't live happening." In other words, if we're picking upwards buying involvement (rising TICK, staying higher upwards the moving average), there's no agency nosotros should acquire an influx of sellers in addition to for the marketplace to movement downwards thence readily inwards the human face upwards of selling pressure. Indeed, ane of the things I liked well-nigh the long side was that the trivial marketplace dip prior to 11:30 AM stayed higher upwards the moving average. The selling soon thereafter ripped below that depression in addition to violated something I liked well-nigh the trade.

I've learned that the "This shouldn't live happening" thought running through my caput is ordinarily a adept indicate to acquire out of a trade. Instead of gaining confidence inwards the idea, I'm losing it. I need to create produce that "shouldn't live happening" feeling to rationalize staying inwards the trade. Those rationalizations are almost ever losers.

Could it live a temporary whipsaw? It's possible, but what has a trader lost past times getting scared out? If a adept upmove is to follow, the trader tin play an upside interruption of the 780 grade (from which the selling started). By that time, the trader could live looking to examination the AM highs in addition to would however cause got a adept risk/reward trade.

But when book in addition to volatility are going against your merchandise in addition to violating your levels, to a greater extent than oftentimes than not, yous desire to admit that the marketplace proved your thought incorrect in addition to thence attempt to larn from that. Learning to brand friends amongst existence incorrect is fundamental to long-term success.

Indeed, exiting the long merchandise amongst an opened upwards hear would assay helpful several bars later, when the downside book in addition to volatility continued in addition to thrust us below the forenoon lows inwards a breakout move. And fifty-fifty if yous did non grab that breakout, at that topographic point was enough of fourth dimension to come across that bounces were feeble in addition to brand coin on the downside. But exclusively if yous kickoff were able to acquire out your trade, convey existence wrong, in addition to piece of occupation the merchandise equally data for the adjacent one.


Let's come across if about intraday Twitter posts tin identify, non exclusively about marketplace ideas, but about points where those ideas assay wrong. Those, nosotros see, tin too live times of opportunity. The intraday marketplace posts via Twitter volition appear on the spider web log page nether "Twitter Trader" (last 5 tweets), or yous tin subscribe to the posts costless of accuse via RSS.
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Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Info!! A Trading Surgery Insight From Ziad Masri

Dear Readers,

I idea this e-mail from reader in addition to commenter Ziad Masri was in addition to then insightful, that I asked for his permission to portion amongst others. His cardinal observation, that it's non how long you lot trade, but how many patterns you lot discovery in addition to human activeness upon, that determines the learning crimp helps explicate how active traders tin strength out educate expertise inwards far less fourth dimension than is normally observed inwards other functioning fields.

Notice also the emotional musical note of Ziad's communication. To sustain enthusiasm in addition to learning during the most challenging markets is a existent accomplishment. Without that drive, the learning crimp stalls out. Many people dear trading in addition to dear making money. Not in addition to then many similar the things you lot conduct keep to create to larn markets in addition to brand goodness trades.

Brett


Just idea I'd write in addition to portion an observation amongst you. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 trader friend of mine in addition to I were talking lately in addition to it occurred to us that the recent marketplace set surround non alone is giving incredible opportunities for closed to large profits, but it is also giving incredible opportunities for accelerated learning. With volatility running at all fourth dimension highs, what used to accept two weeks to transpire is at nowadays taking 1 twenty-four hours (like you lot alluded to inwards your ATR study). As such, in addition to amongst the abundance of trends that we're seeing, in that location are literally hundreds of to a greater extent than patterns appearing inwards a given time-frame than nosotros used to meet before. I recollect early on final twelvemonth I'd sit down in that location in addition to scout the marketplace set for hours equally it moved inwards a half dozen indicate make amongst naught happening. Now it's close non-stop action. The outcome of all this extra exposure has been accelerated learning.

This was all brought dwelling to me when I noticed starting a brace of months agone that my trading skills seemed to brand an minute leap. I was all of a abrupt seeing the marketplace set differently in addition to beingness able to sense moves to a much improve degree. I couldn't empathize the argue for this, but at nowadays I meet it was the final result of accelerated learning given the marketplace set weather condition of late. Quite literally, it's equally if I merely got two years of added sense compressed inside two months. Realizing this has non alone been interesting, but it has also benefited me indirectly because I was starting to dubiety how my results could endure in addition to then good. I was thinking this is also goodness to endure truthful for it to endure happening in addition to then fast (which tin strength out endure a grade of self-sabotage), but at nowadays I realize that the length of fourth dimension I've been trading tin strength out endure deceiving equally it's non the length of fourth dimension itself that determines learning but how much exposure nosotros conduct keep to patterns during that time. And from that indicate of view, there's never been a improve fourth dimension to larn in addition to grow equally a twenty-four hours trader... this market, far from merely offering ample opportunity, is offering a crash graduate course. And I'm happy to endure enrolled!
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Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Info!! Trading Success: What It Agency To Endure Procedure Driven

We ofttimes listen that traders, to survive successful, should "follow their process."  But what actually goes into trading processes?  The recent post described a few mutual elements of successful trading.  One of those was selectivity.  Faced with an interplanetary space expose of possible trades in addition to times to trade, fifty-fifty the active trader must abide by to a greater extent than or less agency of filtering out the bulk of possibilities in addition to focusing on the smaller expose that offering distinctive opportunity.

How does such selectivity work?  I would debate that every successful trader in addition to portfolio director filters trades past times iii criteria:

1)  An Idea - The trading thought expresses the underlying logic of the trade.  It is what gives the merchandise a potential positive expected return.  The thought could survive that risk assets volition ascent when the charge per unit of measurement of alter with a host of macroeconomic indicators is positive; the thought could likewise survive that a company's shares volition autumn if they sense a parabolic ascent because of advertisement non grounded inwards fundamentals.  The trading thought defines the plain of opportunity.

2)  An Expression - Any trading thought tin send away survive expressed inwards a multifariousness of ways, in addition to those expressions ultimately determine the risk/reward of the trade.  For example, daytraders mightiness run several scans of stocks inwards the premarket to seat promising "pump in addition to dump" candidates.  Portfolio managers mightiness limited a thought inwards currencies, equities, and/or rates, depending upon the positioning inwards those assets in addition to how they mightiness tally together inwards a portfolio.  An human face could survive inwards options, inwards a relative value trade, or inwards an outright long or brusk cash position.  Each brings unlike risks, unlike rewards.

3)  An Implementation - To a surprising degree, the agency inwards which a merchandise human face is implemented impacts its ultimate profitability.  Two traders could select the same trading thought in addition to attain upward one's heed to limited it with a long stocks trade.  One trader predicates entry execution on strength, buying when in that place is upside cost confirmation in addition to hence adding to the seat on strength.  Another predicates entry execution on weakness, buying pullbacks inwards cost in addition to scaling out on strength.  The profitability curves for the ii traders over fourth dimension volition appear radically different.  Indeed, for the ES futures, the one-time implementation strategy could select easily led to apartment to negative returns fifty-fifty inwards the recent bull market!  Placement of stops, sizing of trades--all of these greatly ship on trading outcomes.

I would advise that a really process-driven trader has studied each of the iii areas above, hence that all iii contribute to an overall trading edge.  The process-driven trader should survive able to justify the merchandise on all iii criteria, in addition to the process-driven trader should survive able to review surgery across the criteria to determine where improvements tin send away survive made.  There is much to a greater extent than to profitable trading than arriving at expert ideas, in addition to in that place is much trading of randomness inwards the house of expert ideas.  Not all who follow routines are process-driven.

There are likewise psychological processes underlying success across surgery domains.  Further Reading:  Feeding Your Head And Developing Your Self
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Friday, February 1, 2019

Info!! Making The Transition From Daytrading

It is non odd for traders who laid about every bit active, intraday traders to transition to a longer-term mode of trading. There are several reasons for this:

1) Opportunity - Excellent historical patterns direct house on a multiday fourth dimension frame, allowing traders to capture larger moves amongst fewer trading decisions. Note, for instance, that many of the patterns researched yesteryear such sites every bit Quantifiable Edges, Market Tells, SentimenTrader, in addition to Market Rewind extend over multiple trading days.

2) Lifestyle - Following markets tick yesteryear tick, solar daytime later on day, tin ship away hold upwards taxing; it also leaves footling fourth dimension for other productive activities during the regular trading day. By extending one's fourth dimension horizon, 1 tin ship away fully participate inwards markets, piece leaving fourth dimension complimentary for other productive in addition to recreational pursuits;

3) Trading Style - Longer-term trading takes payoff of primal relationships, every bit good every bit price-based ones, in addition to lends itself to decision-making based upon audio query into company, economic, monetary, in addition to intermarket factors, every bit good every bit persuasion in addition to technical patterns. Such a research-intensive mode industrial plant good for analytically-oriented traders; the longer fourth dimension frame affords them the fourth dimension for such research.

Often, the transition from daytrading to longer-term trading is non an slow one. Traders accustomed to beingness glued to the covert frequently abide by themselves next their longer-term trades also closely, micromanaging them every bit a result. Too, traders accustomed to managing opportunity on an intraday dry ground cause got to arrange to the wider swings that direct house over multiple days. Sizing positions to trouble organisation human relationship for the rising inwards volatility amongst longer belongings periods is critical.

Psychologically, longer-term trading does non afford the immediate gratifications of short-term trading. Rather, much of the gratification from the longer-term merchandise comes from generating in addition to executing the thought in addition to managing the pose in 1 lawsuit it's on.

An additional advantage--and gratification--of longer-term trading is that it enables traders to merchandise in addition to follow multiple markets in addition to carry/manage multiple positions. That tin ship away hold upwards hard to arrive at for really short-term traders. The longer timeframe trader relies less on leverage inwards private positions in addition to tin ship away spread opportunity across multiple ideas, potentially achieving a higher bird of diversification.

In futurity posts, I volition rail merely about patterns that extend over multiple solar daytime periods to illustrate how short-term trading skills tin ship away hold upwards ported to longer fourth dimension frames.
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Friday, January 24, 2020

Info!! Is In That Place Chance Inward The Market?

ll encounter them cope to formulate an consider Info!! Is There Opportunity inwards the Market?
So often, every bit I operate amongst traders, I'll encounter them cope to formulate an opinion: are nosotros going higher, or are nosotros going lower?

As the morn marketplace today has shown us, the respond to that enquiry is sometimes "None of the above."

Note the sharply declining volume, identified yesteryear the bluish arrow. As book has come upwards out of the market, volatility has narrowed to the quest where in that location has been petty short-term opportunity.

Understanding that volume-volatility connector is fundamental for active traders. When book decreases, it way that the large, directional players inwards the marketplace are relatively absent. What remains are marketplace makers as well as scalpers who play for ticks inside narrow ranges, making coin betwixt bids as well as offers.

When book comes into a market, nosotros don't only teach to a greater extent than of the same trade; nosotros teach a qualitatively dissimilar trade, because that added book typically reflects a sure enough form of marketplace participant. Knowing how much merchandise is occurring is a practiced clue every bit to who is trading--and that is an fantabulous nation for how much movement nosotros tin goal expect.
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Monday, February 3, 2020

Info!! Trading On Tilt: Regaining Self Control

Here is a sequence I bring out amid many active traders:

It begins alongside uncertainty. The trader isn't surely which means the marketplace is going, simply feels the require to brand a trade. Instead of sitting dorsum too letting the marketplace demo its hand, the trader is leaning forward, mitt on mouse, laid upwardly to pounce.

The marketplace moves higher past times several ticks, equally ane or to a greater extent than plan trades accept out a few levels inwards the ES futures.

The trader instantly expresses frustration, "I should receive got bought there." He leans forrad fifty-fifty more, hanging on every tick.

The marketplace ticks down, too then up. It's a irksome market. The trader doesn't run across that the recent displace upwardly was on minimal book too that the midday merchandise is quite narrow. Suddenly the marketplace ticks upwardly ane to a greater extent than fourth dimension too the trader can't accept it whatsoever more. He lifts the offering alongside his green size, afraid of missing the displace up.

There is no net turn a profit target or destination loss articulated. This is non a merchandise designed alongside skilful risk/reward parameters, because in that location *are* no parameters. This is a merchandise designed to minimize the discomfort associated alongside non beingness on board for a move.

The marketplace all of a abrupt reverses too retraces its recent gains. Now the trader either has to exit alongside a loss or hang inwards in that location too promise for a reversal. His frustration builds, leading him to drib dead along his overtrading, too making it to a greater extent than probable that he volition stick with--and fifty-fifty add together to--losing trades.

Our trader is non trading to brand money. He is trading to regulate his emotional state. Once he becomes attached to the require to merchandise too brand money--and ane time his perfectionistic vocalisation of "I should receive got bought there" enters the picture--he is no longer grounded inwards markets. It's when those frustrations construct over time, becoming self-reinforcing, that traders "go on tilt".

By staying physically relaxed inwards one's breathing too posture too past times mentally rehearsing a mindset inwards which it is OK to immature lady moves--there volition ever live on hereafter opportunity--traders tin preclude many of these prepare wrecks. The practise of taking a suspension during the trading day, reviewing one's nation of mind, too clearing one's caput is remarkably effective inwards this regard. Clearly identifying the parameters of one's trade--the optimal size, reasonable targets given marketplace movement, destination loss points that order chance too vantage into proper alignment--also ensures that you lot are controlling your trading, non the reverse.

There are many ways inwards which the trunk controls the mind. If you lot are non physically calm too collected, it volition live on hard to brand calm, focused trading decisions. By working at observing yourself equally you lot trade, you lot arrive at the mightiness to interrupt destructive sequences too find control. Ultimately, going on "tilt" is the outcome of a loss of self-awareness. Once you lot recollect yourself, you'll live on able to access your skills too knowledge.

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Friday, February 1, 2019

Info!! Lessons For Developing Traders: To A Greater Extent Than On What Moves Markets

In the get-go postal service inward this series, I offered a perspective on what moves markets that I want I had learned during my early on years trading. In this follow upwards post, I volition offering a 2nd insight that I want I had learned inward those formative years: what moves markets over brusk fourth dimension frames.

While large institutions displace coin across global regions together with property classes, creating large trending moves, the factors that displace markets over a fourth dimension bridge of minutes to hours are quite different. Understanding how marketplace position participants are segmented past times the fourth dimension frame of their participation is crucial to interpreting marketplace position movement.

Here's a unsmooth analogy: Suppose yous are standing inward the body of body of water together with someone asks yous what makes the H2O displace closed to you. You would live on correct to nurture the Luna together with its effects on tides together with patterns of waves. Of course, yous mightiness also live on correct to nurture winds together with local climate conditions, especially if a tempest were brewing. Then, too, yous could conduct keep a expect at the kids splashing inward the H2O all closed to yous together with notice that they were contributing quite a fleck to the water's displace closed to you.

Markets are similar the ocean: at that spot are longer-term forces that acquit upon render together with demand, together with at that spot are also to a greater extent than immediate, local forces. It is the interplay of these forces that creates the displace nosotros observe. If nosotros expect straight off closed to us--a few feet inward each direction--the tides mightiness draw of piece of job organization human relationship for fiddling of the displace relative to the splashing of all the people surrounding us. If nosotros expect across the wide area of ocean, all we'll come across are the waves together with the number of the winds together with tides.

The short-term trader is similar the soul surrounded past times splashing swimmers: the turbulence inward the immediate surround is created past times liquidity providers, also known every bit marketplace position makers. They are the ones who offering shares or futures contract for sale together with who discover bids to buy. Their destination is to net income from immediate movements closed to the latest bid together with offering price, including the spread betwixt bid together with offer.

What I want I had understood ameliorate early on inward my career is that, piece institutions (and global flows of capital) dominate markets over long fourth dimension frames (the tides); it is the liquidity providers that dominate merchandise from infinitesimal to infinitesimal (the splashing). While fundamentals win out over a menses of years, the short-term movements of markets are determined past times the sentiment--the buying together with selling biases--of marketplace position makers.

In the past, the marketplace position makers were traders on the floors of the exchanges. Then, they increasingly became proprietary traders inward electronic markets. Most recently, they conduct keep perish calculator programs, executing sophisticated algorithms to exploit imbalances inward the fellowship book.

When I get-go came to Chicago to piece of job total fourth dimension amongst prop traders, I was astounded that few of the traders made active piece of job of charts together with technical tools for determination support. Yes, they looked at charts for wide reference, but the volume of their attending went to depth-of-market (DOM) displays that constantly updated the number of contracts beingness offered together with bid together with diverse cost levels. It was the flow of bids together with offers inward together with out of the book--order flow--that showed the traders whether buyers or sellers were coming into the market.

For instance, if the prop traders saw bids firming upwards together with a distich of large offers come upwards out of the book, they would speedily purchase together with thence piece of job an offering a fleck higher upwards the market. When the offering was lifted, they would conduct keep a ane or two-tick winning trade. All 24-hour interval long, those ticks added up, especially given the leverage available to the prop firms. There were situations where traders would merchandise all 24-hour interval similar that, barely e'er looking at a chart, together with barely fifty-fifty knowing the specific cost of the index they were trading. All they were seeing were bids together with offers higher upwards together with below the marketplace position together with trading those.

As liquidity providers became bigger together with bigger, they controlled to a greater extent than size closed to the market. They could concord large bids, for example, at several cost levels below the market's electrical current price. All it would conduct keep is a simultaneous pulling of those bids together with firming of offers higher upwards the marketplace position to displace the cost downward tick later tick later tick. That, of course, would scare out other traders; it mightiness also entice some sellers into the market, thinking that a fresh downtrend had begun. Little did they realize that the liquidity providers were working large bids fifty-fifty farther downward the ladder, picking upwards contracts at real adept prices. As they firmed upwards those bids, no farther sellers materialized, together with the marketplace position would bounce correct dorsum toward where it had begun. Splash, splash.

What I didn't realize every bit a novel trader was how to holler upwards similar a cost maker, rather than a cost taker. To succeed at short-term trading, yous conduct keep to holler upwards similar a marketplace position maker, non a retail client buying bids together with selling offers. That agency agreement fellowship flow, non merely the displace of cost on a chart. In recent times, that also agency agreement how algorithmic programs tin displace markets upwards together with down, without necessarily changing the underlying fundamentals of markets.

Indeed, when marketplace position makers displace prices artificially high inward a falling marketplace position or artificially depression inward a rising one, odd opportunities are created for fleet-footed, perceptive traders. Opportunity exists inward the crevices betwixt those participants at dissimilar fourth dimension frames: a lesson crucial for developing traders.

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