Info!! Indicator Update For March 31St

Last week's indicator update concluded, "I would non survive surprised to run into consolidation next the rigid toll ascent off the early on March lows. That consolidation should survive relatively apartment if we're going to sustain closed to other leg upward." Since that time, nosotros did run into farther forcefulness inwards the rally concluding week, followed past times consolidation that took us beneath the 800 grade inwards the S&P 500 futures.

The to a higher house charts exhibit where nosotros stood equally of Friday's close, in addition to nosotros tin laissez passer on the axe run into the double operate past times inwards novel 20-day highs minus lows (bottom chart), fifty-fifty equally toll had moved higher inwards the large caps. We tin laissez passer on the axe also run into from the Cumulative Demand/Supply Index (top chart; a cumulative index of the release of stocks closing to a higher house versus below their short-term volatility envelopes) that nosotros are at real overbought levels.

As I've stressed for several weeks now, these peaks inwards the Cumulative DSI (which is my preferred overbought/oversold measure) convey occurred at successively lower toll highs, which is feature of longer-term ship trends. We involve to run into an expansion of 20-day novel highs in addition to an mightiness to concur the 800 grade inwards the S&P 500 Index on pullbacks earlier nosotros tin laissez passer on the axe conclude that the electrical flow rally is something to a greater extent than than a trigger-happy ship marketplace bounce.

To this point, rallies to a higher house 800 convey been met alongside rigid selling, equally nosotros saw belatedly inwards today's session. Should nosotros run into lower toll highs on bounces inwards the Demand/Supply Index or should nosotros run into fewer novel highs (and specially to a greater extent than 20-day lows) on bounces, I would survive looking for a deeper correction into the wide trading arrive at defined past times concluding week's highs in addition to the ship marketplace lows. As always, I volition survive tracking Demand/Supply in addition to novel highs/lows daily via Twitter.
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Info!! Indicator Review For March 31St

Last week's indicator review noted solely tepid forcefulness next the bounce off the mid-month marketplace lows. I likewise noted weak coin flows amid the S&P 500 stock sectors (article amongst link to all the posts here). Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 unopen look, sector past times sector, finds that defensive themes are dominating the market--not something we'd hold off if nosotros were entering a bullish marketplace phase.

For this week's indicator review, I recalculated coin flows amid the Dow Industrial stocks using my ain information as well as methodology, rather than the information from Dow Jones. My decision (top chart) is essentially the same: at that spot is no testify at this fourth dimension of sustained dollar flows into stocks. Even every bit the marketplace has bounced, nosotros convey stayed below the cypher line, suggesting that coin is flowing out of the shares of the companies that contain the index.

We tin likewise encounter (middle chart) that novel 20-day highs minus lows amid NASDAQ, NYSE, as well as ASE issues convey rolled over and, every bit of Friday, were essentially even. This rolling over was reflected inwards the Cumulative NYSE TICK, which turned downwards on Fri later 7 consecutive days of positive readings. The fact that the TICK as well as the novel highs/lows are non plunging suggests that we're getting to a greater extent than of an absence of buying inwards the recent marketplace than an avalanche of selling. The trial has been a rather steady drift downward for much of the week.

The best 1 tin say nearly the province of affairs is that the dramatic fundamental depository fiscal establishment interventions convey helped stopped the selling, but convey non inspired sufficient confidence to sustain buying. The fact that fiscal shares remain marketplace laggards does non talk good for investor confidence on the heels of those interventions.

My momentum measures convey turned downward. On Friday, Demand closed the solar daytime at 38; Supply was 127. Among S&P 500 stocks, solely 38% were trading inwards a higher house their 20-day moving averages on Friday, downwards from over 70% early on inwards the week. We're seeing a fleck to a greater extent than forcefulness amid the small-scale caps: amid the S&P 600 small-scale cap issues, 50% are inwards a higher house their 20-day moving averages, downwards from over 75% early on inwards the week.

Among NYSE mutual stocks only, nosotros had viii novel 52-week highs on Fri as well as 33 novel lows--the highest degree of novel lows of the week, but nowhere close every bit high every bit the degree seen mid-month. Meanwhile, the advance-decline draw of piece of occupation for those NYSE mutual issues is hovering simply inwards a higher house its demeanour marketplace lows--a clear sign that wide buying has non swept the markets.

If selling does non alternative upwards early on inwards the week, peculiarly inwards the NYSE TICK, I would hold off the marketplace to aspect for a short-term bottom as well as come inwards a hit mode, amongst end week's highs every bit the upper destination of the range. As long every bit Supply exceeds Demand as well as stocks making novel lows happen on to expand, however, I volition live on defensive on this market. Any pickup of selling would target an of import examination of the mid-March lows. I volition happen on to update marketplace indicators as well as views daily inwards my Twitter comments.
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