Info!! Indicator Review For September 2Nd

Last week's indicator review flora a stalling out of the marketplace bounce since mid-July, with fewer stocks registering fresh novel highs too solely small-scale advance-decline pull with NYSE mutual stocks. Recent sector behavior has shown signs of rotation, rather than trending, which is consistent with continued weak coin catamenia readings. As a result, the novel high/low remainder (middle chart) remains stagnant, fifty-fifty equally nosotros returned to relatively overbought levels (top chart) earlier falling dorsum on Friday. The advance-decline describe of piece of occupation (bottom chart; kudos to Decision Point) tried breaking to the upside midweek, simply roughshod dorsum into its multi-week hit with Friday's drop.

With falling commodities too a rigid the U.S. of A. dollar, stocks are finding unopen to support; the U.S. of A. equities accept been relatively rigid compared with many global counterparts, specially inwards Asia. Still, the weak coin flow, lack of consistent trending across sectors, too small-scale novel high/low pull accept me questioning the upside, specially if nosotros brand novel cost highs without meaningfully expanding those indicators.
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Info!! Indicator Update For November 2Nd

Last week's indicator review institute weakness next the momentum highs of September. As nosotros tin plough over the axe encounter from above, that weakness continued this by week, taking the S&P 500 Index dorsum toward its early on Oct lows, alongside a bulk of sectors trading inward downtrends together with clear technical harm to several stock groups.

The Cumulative Demand/Supply Index (top chart) is inward rattling oversold territory that by together with large corresponds to at to the lowest degree a short-term bottom surface area inward stocks. New 20- together with 65-day lows (middle nautical chart for 20-day lows) direct hold expanded significantly, taking out the levels of novel lows seen during belatedly August through early on October. Indeed, equally the nautical chart from Decision Point indicates (bottom chart), we've besides taken out the early on Oct lows inward the advance/decline trouble specific to NYSE mutual stocks. Of the final xi trading sessions, solely iii direct hold seen to a greater extent than advancing than declining issues.

While this is clearly a correction together with it is reasonable to await farther bottoming activeness fifty-fifty subsequently whatsoever reflex, short-covering rallies, I await us to ultimately agree the June/early July lows inward the A/D line, alongside accomodative Fed policy continuing to back upwards the run a jeopardy rally together with pressure level the USA dollar. For that scenario to hold, however, nosotros require to get-go seeing a reduction inward the number of stocks making fresh 20-day lows together with positive readings inward the Demand/Supply Index. As of Friday's close, nosotros did encounter novel 20-day lows neglect to arrive at Midweek together with Th levels despite the sudden marketplace position drop. I volition live on watching closely to encounter if this departure holds: hold an oculus on the updated indicator posts via Twitter prior to each marketplace position opened upwards for the latest readings.
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Info!! Sector Update For September 7Th

What a difference a calendar week makes. The final sector update institute the bulk of sectors inward small-scale uptrends, amongst testify of sector rotation rather than strong upward trending. Over the by week, money has continued to menstruum out of stocks too most of our sectors stimulate got flipped from small-scale uptrends to small-scale downtrends. What this agency inward utilisation is that I'm viewing the marketplace through ii sets of lenses. One is the lens of the short-term trader, who is seeing the marketplace weaken from solar daytime to day, calendar week to week. (By Friday, for example, nosotros posted over 2400 fresh 20-day lows amidst NYSE, NASDAQ, too ASE issues; a total indicator review volition look tomorrow AM and, equally always, I volition travel updating the indicators prior to each trading solar daytime potentially meaning divergences betwixt the electrical current marketplace activeness too the weakness that nosotros saw at the July lows. In short, we're seeing more fearfulness too selling than inward the by few weeks, precisely fewer stocks are participating inward that selling than at recent marketplace lows.

So basically nosotros stimulate got ii scenarios: the kickoff is that we've begun a fresh leg downwards inward the marketplace too volition decisively accept out the July lows across the major indexes. The 2nd scenario--and, frankly, the 1 I'm leaning toward--is that the July through early on September weakness is business office of a bottoming process, amongst waning participation to the downside.

Here are the Technical Strength (trending) numbers for each of the 8 S&P 500 sectors that I follow, amongst the pct of stocks inside each sector trading higher upward their 50-day moving average (in parentheses):

MATERIALS: -80 (40%)
INDUSTRIAL: -200 (20%)
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: -100 (57%)
CONSUMER STAPLES: +40 (61%)
ENERGY: -460 (5%)
HEALTH CARE: -240 (30%)
FINANCIAL: +240 (64%)
TECHNOLOGY: -320 (19%)

We tin come across that the unloose energy too technology scientific discipline shares are dramatic underperformers, equally the marketplace is pricing inward the effects of slow/no increase inward the economy. Consumer staples stocks are outperforming equally defensive issues, but--interestingly--we're too seeing underperformance amidst wellness assist shares. That may reverberate renewed concerns nearly cost-cutting inward that expanse inward the wake of the Presidential election. Amazingly, fiscal shares are leading the pack; it volition travel interesting to come across how they response to the regime bailout of FNM too FRE.

Note how the percentages of stocks higher upward the 50-day moving averages is quite discrepant across sectors: in 1 lawsuit again, we're seeing enough of sector rotation. At this point, the percentages are non nigh levels ordinarily associated amongst intermediate-term marketplace bottoms, despite the fact that we're at fresh annual lows inward the NYSE Composite Index too nigh those lows inward the S&P 500 Index. This is however unopen to other reflection of the divergences I'm seeing inward the electrical current market. Either nosotros stimulate got much farther to larn on the downside, or the bulk of shares stimulate got set inward their lows for the electrical current comport cycle. I'll travel tracking the indicators closely to handicap the odds of these really dissimilar scenarios; remain tuned...
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