Info!! Indicator Review For June 2Nd

Last week's indicator review noted weakness across many of the measures inwards the wake of a several-day pullback. We've since bounced from those toll lows, but rest good off the highs across virtually of the indicators. Money flows to the S&P 500 stocks expire on to last weak, with divergences mutual since April.

Interestingly, the coin stream divergences jibe what we're seeing inwards the cumulative NYSE TICK (bottom chart), which has shown tepid clitoris since its meridian on Apr seventh in addition to which is currently good off its highs. Unlike coin flow, TICK is non book based, suggesting that we're non but seeing waning summertime volume. Rather, buyer involvement itself seems to last waning since that early on Apr period.

Still, that did non preclude us from making fresh peaks inwards the number of stocks making novel 65-day highs (top chart) during May. Since the pullback 2 weeks ago, the market's bounce has left us good shy of those peaks then far. On Th in addition to Friday, for example, nosotros registered 48 in addition to 57 novel 52-week highs respectively across the NYSE mutual stocks against xvi in addition to eighteen novel lows. By comparison, nosotros had over 150 novel highs 2 weeks ago.

In by indicator reviews, I've noted considerable sector rotation in addition to divergence, fifty-fifty inside the S&P 500 large-cap universe. This continues at acquaint in addition to appears to last a major argue we're non seeing to a greater extent than broad-based clitoris since the January/March marketplace bottom. For example, we're exclusively seeing 30% of fiscal stocks trading inwards a higher house their 20-day moving averages, but 78% of engineering scientific discipline stocks. Materials issues convey shown recent weakness inwards the wake of pullbacks alongside commodities--only 54% are inwards a higher house their 20-day averages--but previously weak wellness attention issues convey bounced, with 73% inwards a higher house their benchmarks.

All inwards all, the weakness inwards TICK in addition to coin flows in addition to the relative functioning of sectors suggests 2 things: 1) that to a greater extent than coin is shifting from sector to sector than genuinely entering the stock market; in addition to 2) that when coin is entering the market, it is doing then selectively (commodity-based themes, technology). This is non necessarily a prescription for a fresh acquit market, but it every bit good is non a company foundation for a sustained marketplace rally. For this reason, as my recent post indicated, I am beingness to a greater extent than tactical than long-term strategic inwards my ain trading.
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Info!! Indicator Update For November 2Nd

Last week's indicator review institute weakness next the momentum highs of September. As nosotros tin plough over the axe encounter from above, that weakness continued this by week, taking the S&P 500 Index dorsum toward its early on Oct lows, alongside a bulk of sectors trading inward downtrends together with clear technical harm to several stock groups.

The Cumulative Demand/Supply Index (top chart) is inward rattling oversold territory that by together with large corresponds to at to the lowest degree a short-term bottom surface area inward stocks. New 20- together with 65-day lows (middle nautical chart for 20-day lows) direct hold expanded significantly, taking out the levels of novel lows seen during belatedly August through early on October. Indeed, equally the nautical chart from Decision Point indicates (bottom chart), we've besides taken out the early on Oct lows inward the advance/decline trouble specific to NYSE mutual stocks. Of the final xi trading sessions, solely iii direct hold seen to a greater extent than advancing than declining issues.

While this is clearly a correction together with it is reasonable to await farther bottoming activeness fifty-fifty subsequently whatsoever reflex, short-covering rallies, I await us to ultimately agree the June/early July lows inward the A/D line, alongside accomodative Fed policy continuing to back upwards the run a jeopardy rally together with pressure level the USA dollar. For that scenario to hold, however, nosotros require to get-go seeing a reduction inward the number of stocks making fresh 20-day lows together with positive readings inward the Demand/Supply Index. As of Friday's close, nosotros did encounter novel 20-day lows neglect to arrive at Midweek together with Th levels despite the sudden marketplace position drop. I volition live on watching closely to encounter if this departure holds: hold an oculus on the updated indicator posts via Twitter prior to each marketplace position opened upwards for the latest readings.
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