Info!! Functioning In Addition To Effort: Perspectives From Miyamoto Musashi

What is the human relationship betwixt functioning in addition to effort?

Some mightiness hold back a linear relationship: to a greater extent than practice/effort leads to ameliorate performance.

Others mightiness hold back a curvilinear relationship: at about indicate also much endeavor tin interfere alongside performance.

In martial arts in addition to the Japanese practise of swordsmanship, the human relationship betwixt endeavor in addition to functioning is far to a greater extent than complicated.

Effort is cardinal to training, precisely 1 time skills are internalized, functioning comes from stilling the heed in addition to allowing automatic skills to accept over. The focus is on not-trying.

"To last swayed neither past times the opponent nor past times his sword is the heart of swordsmanship," Miyamoto Musashi taught.

The finish is to expire 1 alongside the performance, whether it is writing calligraphy or engaging inwards martial arts. Stephen Hunter captured a fight of this inwards his new "The 47th Samurai".

When y'all are 1 alongside your opponent, y'all tin anticipate his movements in addition to answer flowingly. There is no fourth dimension to mean value in addition to analyze.

"You win battles past times knowing the enemy's timing, in addition to using a timing which the enemy does non expect," Musashi taught.

Much bad trading comes from minds that are non still, that cannot last at 1 alongside markets, in addition to that literally lose their experience for markets. "A vehement heed wields a careless sword," Musashi wrote.

There are times when y'all tin *feel* markets turning; it's nigh a bodily perception. In the martial arts, 1 feels an opponent similarly.

"There is timing inwards the whole life of the warrior, inwards his thriving in addition to declining, inwards his harmony in addition to discord," Musashi wrote. "Similarly, at that topographic point is timing inwards the Way of the merchant, inwards the rising in addition to autumn of capital. All things entail rising in addition to falling timing. You must last able to discern this."

Training requires effort; "The Way is inwards training," according to Musashi. But the greatest functioning is effortless, beyond effort. Musashi understood that.
.

Info!! Readings In Addition To Insights To Outset The Weekend

* How the role of imagery tin help inward changing our patterns of idea together with behavior; (Dr. Brett note: imagery techniques are peculiarly promising inward cultivating the however mind needed to attend to one's experience for the markets).

* Retail sales for back-to-school looking weak;

* Nice await at a organization for switching trading strategies; Jeff's fellow member site (trial subscriptions available for his service) features dark pools are non a item threat to traders together with investors; (Dr. Brett note: this is ane argue I focus on transacted volume, rather than orders that increasingly aren't appearing/resting inward the book);

* Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 growing professional person shape inward emerging economies is a pregnant development;

* Communist People's Republic of China continues to pursue acquisition of raw materials companies.
.

Info!! Online Trading Analyst: Novel Features Coming To

A piece dorsum I wrote most how the weblog as well as as a form of trading analyst. The thought is to supply real fourth dimension determination back upward for traders that extends their vision of markets. The primal to making this move is providing data that does non overlap what is already readily available yesteryear charts as well as that offers fresh perspectives on marketplace action that tin displace Pb to profitable insights as well as ideas.

For quite a while, I've posted data on marketplace describe (20-day highs/lows); momentum (Demand/Supply); as well as trending (Technical Strength) that offering unique views of marketplace as well as sector behavior. I've likewise used a handbasket of xl stocks (five highly-weighted issues inwards 8 dissimilar S&P 500 sectors) to aid guess marketplace breadth from the open--useful inwards identifying trending as well as non-trending markets (as good every bit breakouts).

Soon to come upward volition move to a greater extent than measures from the handbasket of stocks, including five-day novel highs as well as lows that grab short-term swings inwards marketplace strength. I'm working on a screening platform that volition grab intraday highs as well as lows every bit well, every bit a means of catching sector rotation as well as evolving marketplace buying as well as selling.

Many of the weekly measures that I straight off track, such every bit Technical Strength, volition motion to a daily basis, in i lawsuit again to grab shifts inwards trending inside as well as across sectors.

Briefing posts volition increasingly position shifts with international markets as well as diverse property classes to highlight coin flows globally.

Finally, I'll move rolling out a platform that volition integrate all of this inwards existent fourth dimension for to a greater extent than coherent determination support. Twitter has its place, but it's fourth dimension to motion beyond Twitter. It's possible to pick out data inwards 140 characters; what's merely every bit of import is the higher grade integration of that information--and the modeling of reasoning processes that underlie that integration. That requires other ways of conveying information, dissimilar technologies.

My promise is to pick out all this running yesteryear the get-go of the novel year, but private novel features volition popular upward good earlier then. As always, thank you lot for your interest.

Brett

Info!! Short-Term Novel Highs Together With Lows: A Valuable Marketplace Timing Tool

the 8 S&P 500 sectors that I follow weekly; for a listing of the forty issues, check out this post.

The computation of novel highs as well as lows uses daily high as well as depression prices, as well as then these are non necessarily *closing* five-day highs as well as lows.

What nosotros encounter is that the novel highs/lows tend to shift ahead of of import short-term tendency changes inwards the S&P 500 Index (SPY; bluish line). Note, for example, how five-day lows dried upwardly at the July bottom; how novel highs stimulate got peaked inwards the electrical flow marketplace position as well as right away are beingness overtaken past times novel lows.

Reversals, inwards which a plurality of novel highs is replaced past times a plurality of novel lows as well as vice versa, are meaning inwards terms of short-term tendency shifts. I am currently watching closely the reversal blueprint that appears to last nether agency at present.

In a longer-term marketplace position uptrend, spikes of novel lows volition move on at successively higher prices as well as brand worthwhile points to view for entry on swing trades, peculiarly when those novel lows start drying up. Similarly, inwards longer-term downtrends, spikes inwards novel five-day highs volition frequently brand proficient entry points for brusk sales.

Breaking out the novel highs/lows past times sector also is quite helpful inwards identifying shifts inwards forcefulness due to sector rotation.

I volition last posting these information regularly equally role of a continued expansion of determination back upwardly tools. Eventually, I volition also postal service intraday novel highs/lows, which are unusually helpful inwards identifying directional shifts/transitions that move on inside the trading day.
.

Info!! Conceptual Sketch Of An Trend/Breakout Indicator

Imagine bars of whatever duration. If Bar two closes higher than the high of Bar 1, nosotros cast Bar two equally a bullish bar, equally nosotros are accepting value higher. If Bar two closes lower than the depression of Bar 1, nosotros cast Bar two equally a bearish bar, equally nosotros are accepting value lower. If Bar two closes inside the attain of Bar 1, nosotros cast Bar two equally a attain bar.

Suppose immediately nosotros cast each stock inwards a handbasket or average for its bull, bear, as well as attain bars as well as inwardness those ratings, hence that nosotros know how many stocks inwards that grouping are bullish, bearish, as well as attain leap for the catamenia represented yesteryear the latest bar.

If, for example, nosotros role 30-minute bars, the ratings of the 2nd bar of the 24-hour interval across our universe of stocks would enjoin us something nigh the breadth of opening attain breakouts.

If nosotros role daily bars, nosotros could assess short-term trending 24-hour interval over day: how many issues merchandise bullishly, bearishly, as well as attain bound. That would hold out helpful inwards gauging the marketplace position environs for the coming day, peculiarly if nosotros as well as hence assess the side yesteryear side day's opened upwards relative to the prior day's range.

One sentiment is to convey breakouts inwards an index when at that spot is expert breadth of stocks breaking out inwards bullish or bearish fashion; to await reversals when at that spot is wretched breadth of stocks breaking out.

I'll conduct maintain something assembled for this indicator yesteryear tomorrow.
.

Info!! A Bottoms-Up Thought Of Rattling Short-Term Stock Marketplace Tendency Status

contained inward my prior post; we're looking at where each stock inward a handbasket of 40 closes relative to its prior day's range. If the stock closes inward a higher house the high of the prior day, nosotros label that stock every bit short-term bullish; if the stock closes below the depression of the previous day, nosotros label it bearish. That is because, solar daytime over day, nosotros are accepting value at higher or lower cost levels. If the stock closes inside the prior day's range, nosotros label its short-term tendency every bit existence inward a range.

First facial expression at the reddish line, which is the publish of stocks inward the handbasket qualifying alongside bullish readings. We come across the liftoff--broad bullish momentum off the July lows--and directly the dwindling readings every bit the marketplace appears to live on inward a consolidation/topping mode.

At the same time, nosotros tin come across from the yellowish trouble that the publish of stocks alongside bearish readings has been creeping higher together with of late has been exceeding the publish of shares alongside bullish status. Observe how the publish of stocks alongside bearish (yellow line) readings peaked ahead of the marketplace bottom inward July; this conduct is similar to what nosotros saw inward our recent facial expression at five-day novel highs together with lows.

Finally, if nosotros focus on the lite bluish line, nosotros tin come across the elevated publish of stocks trading inward attain mode, a useful warning to the recent consolidation/topping that we've been seeing inward the S&P 500 Index (SPY; nighttime bluish line). It is non odd to come across a meridian inward stocks trading inward attain style ahead of marketplace reversals, every bit happened at the July lows.

Note that Friday, which started out looking similar a tendency solar daytime to the downside, genuinely qualifies every bit a attain day, every bit nosotros had ii stocks bullish, 11 bearish, together with 27 closing inward Thursday's range. That tempers my expectations for Mon together with volition direct maintain me watching how nosotros opened upwards relative to Friday's trading range.

Seeing what is happening inward wide marketplace averages tin assistance us estimate activity inward private shares, given that virtually stocks are correlated alongside the indexes. What we're seeing inward the recent posts, however, is that the contrary is every bit good true: the conduct of a cross-section of stocks inward a handbasket tin illuminate what is happening inward the wide market.

Creating indicators of this type offers a quick means to obtain a bottoms-up thought of marketplace behavior. I volition live on posting to a greater extent than of these indicator readings to the spider web log together with updating readings via Twitter. The Twitter feed is free; yous tin follow the final 5 tweets on the spider web log nether "Twitter Trader" or yous tin follow the entire flow here.
.

Info!! Horizontal As Well As Vertical Noesis As Well As Trading Expertise

The disclose of aggregator too chat sites for traders on the Web has expanded greatly. Quite a few of them offering first-class content from adept contributors. Too often, however, I acquire out these sites feeling similar I've precisely eaten cotton fiber candy: sugariness too nice, but ultimately non sustaining or substantial.

Worse still, the commercial needs of aggregators atomic number 82 them to ever to a greater extent than aggregation until the contributions move a cacophony. Add inward a salubrious dose of banner ads, heavy-handed promotional messages, too often-contentious reader commentary too yous chop-chop hitting overload, if non sheer incoherence.

In the academic world, where much writing occurs inward professional person journals, in that location is a tradition of continuity. One is expected to admit past times inquiry too scholarship inward an expanse too situate one's ain thinking vis a vis past times contributions. This creates a vertical dimension to professional person dialogue: topics don't mushroom horizontally unless they likewise connect to past times move too farther cognition cumulatively.

To survive sure, academic discourse does non ever execute on this model ideally, peculiarly inward secondary journals. The ideal remains, however: review articles too review sections of inquiry articles tending to clitoris cognition together, fifty-fifty every bit inquiry topics multiply.

In the trading world, in that location are few examples of vertical integration. It is rare indeed for writers of blogs or articles to comment on each other's work, allow lone advance their thinking inward a cumulative fashion. Topics too articles mushroom horizontally--more commentators, to a greater extent than topics convey to a greater extent than eyeballs to the site for advertising dollars--but the crucial conceptual integration of the textile is missing.

Hence the cotton fiber candy feeling.

Expertise inward knowledge-based fields is a component subdivision of coordinated horizontal too vertical thinking. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 MD gathers a sizable amount of information from patients--via the history too physical, blood tests, too imaging studies--but those stay every bit isolated pieces of information until they are vertically integrated into possible diagnostic formulation. It's the pulling together of the horizontal that turns information into information.

Similarly, a move squad volition brainstorm ideas for improving sales. That horizontal procedure tin atomic number 82 to useful "aha!" experiences. It remains for vertical integration to clitoris together the best of the insights into a coherent conception for the occupation concern going forward. Without the vertical synthesis, brainstorming is precisely a stimulating activeness alongside piffling long-term impact.

Twitter is a slap-up instance of horizontal information dispersion. One somebody tin generate dozens of observations too thoughts too many to a greater extent than tin add together their tweets to the conversation. But it is no conversation inward the normal, social sense. No unmarried topic is developed inward whatever depth; rather, it is similar the team's initial brainstorming. That tin survive extremely valuable--it is why I was an early on adopter of Twitter inward the start place--particularly every bit an alerting mechanism. But it has its limitations.

How does the tweet that links an article on weak consumer persuasion relate to a tweet on slowing marketplace momentum? How practise each of those relate to a tweet that describes turn a profit targets or intermarket movements? The solely agency to connect the dots is to offering closed to form of vertical scheme, akin to the physician's diagnostic system. But that cannot survive achieved inward 140 characters or fifty-fifty inward a dedicated weblog post. That is why review articles inward the academic basis tend to survive lengthy: pulling together a slap-up bargain of information thus that it makes sense requires a dissimilar form of discourse.

The occupation inward the trading basis is that in that location are few commercial incentives for detailed discourse. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 unmarried well-conceived article is likely to a greater extent than valuable than 100 superficial contributions, but it's the book of contributions that volition acquire the clicks, page views, too audience needed past times advertisers. Hence, those sites that practise exertion preparation too mentorship mostly demand to monetize their efforts past times charging fees that are rattling high for developing traders. If a trader starting alongside a $25,000 stake spends $100/month on information too software too thus closed to other $100/month on "education", that's 10% pulled out of the occupation concern human relationship correct out of the gate. Add commissions too other computer/internet related expenses too it's piece of cake to run across how the economical cards are stacked against the modestly funded beginner.

This is why I'm convinced that it's fourth dimension to displace beyond Twitter every bit a trading app for this blog, peculiarly for those interested inward learning how to trade. There is ever a demand for the horizontal broadcasting of information, every bit heads upward too trading alerts. Twitter is slap-up for that, too I volition maintain to brand purpose of it. But in that location is equal demand to clitoris that information together inward a coherent, vertical framework. And, if that is to survive achieved affordably, that requires a dissimilar form of platform too a dissimilar sort out of discourse. More to come...
.

Info!! Sector Update For August 16Th

Last week's sector update noted that nosotros were seeing bullish sector action, amongst notable rotation too possible topping action. We've seen to a greater extent than of the same this by week, equally well-nigh of the S&P 500 sectors that I follow lost Technical Strength (a short-term stair out of trending). As nosotros tin dismiss run into above, fully one-half of the sectors are right away inwards a non-trending mode; alone the defensive Consumer Staples grouping gained push clitoris over the week. Particularly notable were dips inwards the economically sensitive Materials, Industrial, too Consumer Discretionary groups, equally questions attain got continued regarding consumer spending too the vigor of the economic scheme apart from auto-related stimulus.

Here's how the Technical Strength of the sectors looks equally of Friday's close. Recall that the sectors vary betwixt +500 (strong uptrend) too -500 (strong downtrend), amongst readings betwixt -100 too +100 suggesting no meaning directional tendency:

MATERIALS: 240
INDUSTRIAL: 220
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: 40
CONSUMER STAPLES: 200
ENERGY: -40
HEALTH CARE: -20
FINANCIAL: 320
TECHNOLOGY: 40

I give-up the ghost along to sentiment the recent marketplace activity equally purpose of a wide topping procedure that eventually should accept our sectors into bearish territory. Last fourth dimension that occurred (see early on July readings above), nosotros had an fantabulous intermediate-term buying opportunity. As long equally those pullbacks inwards Technical Strength hand at successively higher toll levels, nosotros attain got to regard the longer-term vogue equally bullish.
.

Info!! Eve Briefing For August 16Th

* MARKET THEMES FROM FRIDAY - H5N1 belatedly rally inwards stocks turned a weak 24-hour interval into a arrive at leap one, every bit nosotros moved dorsum into the prior day's range. We're currently retracing much of that rally inwards Globex trade, reflecting weakness inwards Asia too falling commodity prices. 10-year Treasury yields convey likewise fallen below 3.6% later getting some 4% concluding week. At concluding week's highs, nosotros saw pregnant divergences inwards the novel high/low stats, supporting the thesis that we're seeing a topping process. The weakness on Fri was accompanied past times item weakness inwards crude too raw materials stocks; emerging marketplace stocks boot the bucket on to likewise human activity weak.

* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 4:00 AM CT - European Union trade.

* EARNINGS: LOW

* WORTH READING:

-- review of the marketplace week;

-- Weak consumer spending could extend for years;

-- FDIC losses review of the marketplace week;

-- greater than during S&L crisis;

-- review of the marketplace week;

-- Interesting await at leading economical indicators across economies;

-- Which countries convey review of the marketplace week;

-- Part-time utilization on the rise, dissimilar inwards past times recessions.
.

Info!! Later A Real Weak Open, What Tin Nosotros Await Next?

The S&P 500 Index futures are trading significantly lower this morn inward pre-opening Globex trade, breaking of import back upwards roughly the 990 level. Indeed, if y'all await at the profits targets from my daily pre-opening Twitter post service (In the spirit of the recent post, this is a potentially useful heads upwards for those tempted to follow a short-term tendency on early on intraday weakness. I'll endure watching the handbasket of stocks closely equally to how they merchandise from the marketplace opened upwards to come across if this designing plays out.
.

Info!! Morn Briefing: Bounce Off A Breakdown

the historical patterns some weak opens noted inwards the prior post.

Oil is too trading off its lows this morning, as well as the USA dollar is off its highs vs. euro. I'll hold upward watching those correlated markets to come across if adventure assets tin dismiss grab a bid today from cope hunters.

That having been said, we've seen an extended catamenia of topping from belatedly July as well as those produce non typically terminate inwards one-day declines. H5N1 suspension of the overnight lows would correspond fresh selling line per unit of measurement area as well as a confirmation of a transition from a topping marketplace position to a short-term downtrend. I'll hold upward tracking markets via Twitter this morning time (follow here) to approximate credence or rejection of value at these lower cost levels.
.

Info!! A Picayune Coaching In Addition To A Quick Hold Back At The Stock Market's Big Picture

some historical precedent for a bounce afterwards such a weak open, nosotros withdraw to run across evidence of buying involvement earlier assuming that such a scenario volition play out. To this point, the distribution of NYSE TICK readings has been quite bearish, alongside multiple readings below -800, only none higher upwardly +600.

Above nosotros run across the bigger moving-picture demo inwards the market, alongside a daily nautical chart of the ES futures. Note that, every bit long every bit nosotros remain below the lows from 8/12, nosotros are accepting value lower, below a multi-day trading range. I'm showing many to a greater extent than NYSE, NASDAQ, too ASE stocks registering 20-day lows than highs, indicating growing weakness inwards the market. We run across sustainable turnarounds mostly when selling dries up, non when it is accelerating. While beingness alarm for a bounce is worthwhile, it makes feel to allow the marketplace demo its forcefulness showtime too non endeavour the proverbial catching of falling knives.
.

Info!! Nyse Tick Together With Aligning Trading Amongst Intraday Sentiment

the prior post, I suggested that it is premature to count on a marketplace reversal inwards a weak marketplace until y'all run across bear witness of pregnant buying interest.

The NYSE TICK is a useful stair out of such interest, because it captures the moment-to-moment trading of all stocks on the New York Stock Exchange: whether they are transacting on upticks or downticks.

As nosotros tin dismiss run across above, the TICK has spent the bulk of its fourth dimension below the blueish aught line, alongside a pose out of readings below -800. Conversely, we've however to run across a positive reading of +800 or greater.

I similar to rails a short-term moving average of TICK (H-L-C for each period) to run across if that average is spending to a greater extent than fourth dimension inwards a higher house or below the aught line. So far today, nosotros bring been below the describe of piece of occupation throughout the morning. That is typical of tendency days to the downside, around other argue that has me careful trying to alternative marketplace bottoms.
.

Info!! Quick Trading Depository Fiscal Establishment Notation : Novel Highs/Lows

A quick await at the first-class Barchart site shows that we've made virtually 900 novel 20-day lows across the NYSE, NASDAQ, in addition to ASE, against exclusively 126 20-day highs. We've likewise made 128 65-day lows. These are the weakest readings since early on July.

If nosotros are to remain inward a bull marketplace mode, nosotros should come across fewer novel lows inward the electrical current pullback than nosotros saw inward July. At July's low, nosotros saw 441 issues across the iii exchanges brand fresh 65-day lows. Should nosotros piece of job past times that number inward coming trading days, it would hold upwards an indication of to a greater extent than pregnant corrective action inward the wide universe of stocks.

Conversely, a dip amongst fewer shares registering fresh intermediate-term novel lows should gear upwards us upwards for an eventual exam of marketplace highs at the really least, every bit the bull blueprint inward the indicator would remain intact.
.

Info!! Midday Briefing: What's Weak As Well As Potent Amidst Stocks

the themes that are impacting the day's trade.
.

Info!! Relative Weakness Amid Emerging Markets: Weak Link Inwards The Bull's Armor

I simply desire to amplify an splendid spider web log comment from reader Matthew C. Above nosotros encounter a daily nautical chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPY; give off chart) vs. its 20-day volume-weighted moving average. Note that we've broken below that average today, but rest good to a higher house the June highs. That keeps the uptrend intact.

China's marketplace (FXI; bottom chart), however, has been below its 20-day average for several days in addition to today has moved dorsum into its June range. Nor is Red People's Republic of China unique inwards this respect. We besides encounter Brazil (EWZ); Russian Federation (RSX); Hong Kong (EWH); in addition to Bharat (EPI) moving dorsum into their June trading ranges.

Why is that potentially significant?

The increment flush amid the emerging markets, peculiarly inwards China, has been a major driver of the recent stock marketplace rally. If those markets are getting ahead of themselves--and especially if nosotros encounter Red People's Republic of China pulling dorsum on stimulus--that would heighten questions nearly global postulate for the goods of developed nations, every bit good every bit the postulate for commodities.

This is a subject worth keeping an optic on.
.

Info!! Gratis Wednesday Webinar On Best Practices For Traders

When I gave a speak for the Traders Expo inwards L.A., I had the pleasance of spending fourth dimension amongst Damon Pavlatos of FuturePath Trading together with Linda Raschke, good known for her didactics of traders together with her lengthy trading career. We discussed the sentiment of my doing a gratis webinar equally operate of FuturePath's educational serial for traders. It at ane time looks similar that volition come about this Midweek (August 19th) at 3:30 PM CT, afterward the New York stock marketplace close.

The webinar topic volition last "Best Practices for Active Traders", together with it volition focus on specific trading together with psychological strategies that I bring flora to last helpful inwards my piece of employment amongst traders (as good equally inwards my ain trading). The Go To Webinar session volition last good amongst the audience able to consider the PowerPoint slides on my screen. I don't know if it volition last archived, but--if so--I volition encourage the FuturePath folks to brand a link available for those who can't last operate of the alive event.

To register, go to this site together with supply your information, including electronic mail address. You'll last sent login details. Look forrad to seeing y'all there!

Brett

Info!! Eve Briefing For August 17Th

* MARKET THEMES FROM MONDAY - H5N1 steep drib inwards overnight stock index futures carried over to sustained selling pressure level during the day, taking stocks to multi-day lows. Defensive themes dominated amid the sectors; nosotros besides saw commodity weakness, a drib inwards 10-year Treasury rates, in addition to forcefulness inwards the U.S.A. dollar. In short, in that location was wide net turn a profit taking amid jeopardy assets, alongside notable weakness amid the emerging markets. We saw almost 226 stocks brand fresh 20-day highs, against 1022 lows; exclusively 47% of SPX stocks are similar a shot trading to a higher house their 20-day moving averages. That is the weakest degree since the early on July lows. We convey moved from what I before described equally extended topping to actual short-term marketplace correction.

* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 3:30 AM CT - UK, CPI; 4:00 AM CT - Germany, ZEW survey of economical conditions.

* EARNINGS: HPQ, HD, TGT, TJX

* WORTH READING:

-- Ten first-class rules for sports psychology in addition to trading;

-- Outlooks for recovery; led past times upper-case missive of the alphabet spending, non consumer spending;

-- Interesting thoughts on vertical thinking amid quant blogs;

-- Problems alongside valuation of UNG and other practiced reads;

-- America's banks looking similar Japan's and to a greater extent than insightful links.
.

Info!! The Value Of Trading Metrics

An of import theme inwards keeping metrics on your trading. Common metrics include the publish of winning vs. losing trades as well as the average size of winning as well as losing trades. More detailed metrics examine the distribution of a trader's returns as well as the size/duration of equity drawdowns. As percentage of keeping score, I likewise similar to await at the absolute value of a trader's daily returns expressed equally a per centum of the account; this provides a quick as well as muddied stair out of the opportunity a trader is taking.

The links inwards the paragraph higher upwards volition laissez passer on y'all a skillful feel for the metrics that I await at almost usually inwards my coaching amongst traders. The destination is to determine:

1) What the trader is doing good as well as poorly: Many times metrics volition illuminate the kinds of trades that are making coin as well as those that are not. This is why breaking metrics downwards into the instruments/markets traded, the setups traded, fourth dimension of day, marketplace weather condition at the fourth dimension of trading, as well as trading size tin forcefulness out hold upwards rattling helpful.

2) Trader progress: Tracking a consistent laid of metrics over fourth dimension is a cracking agency of demonstrating your learning curve. It is likewise rattling helpful should y'all always wish to gear upwards a rails tape for joining a trading firm.

3) Trader effectiveness: Metrics tin forcefulness out illuminate your risk-adjusted returns: how much y'all are making equally a business office of the opportunity you're taking. Sophisticated firms know improve than to await at absolute returns only. They wish traders who brand skillful coin per unit of measurement of opportunity taken.

4) When to trace dorsum risk: Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 shift inwards your metrics tin forcefulness out highlight occasions inwards which y'all are no longer trading good due either to changes inwards how you're trading, changes inwards markets, or both. Such metrics furnish a useful heads upwards for opportunity management.

Athletes usually review tapes of their performances; chess players review their games; professional person models sentinel themselves on concealment to refine their presentation; armed services commanders Pb after-action reviews next missions. Everywhere nosotros meet elite performance, nosotros meet performers reviewing their operate equally percentage of ongoing learning. The collection of metrics tin forcefulness out serve a similar business office for traders.
.

Info!! Morning Time Briefing For August 18Th: Bounce Inwards Opportunity Assets

evening weblog briefing for international numbers that are scheduled), permit me to give cheers readers for their recent, generous support. Yesterday eclipsed all previous records for daily traffic on the blog, as well as it was clear that the involvement was sparked past times the continuing development of the weblog every bit a determination back upward tool for traders. With briefings inwards the morning, midday, as well as even as well as trader as well as marketplace position psychology commentary between, the finish is to expand traders' vision as well as thereby aid traders aid themselves.

We tin run across from the nautical chart of the S&P 500 Index futures (ES) above, that we've bounced overnight from yesterday's lows on the heels of a favorable ZEW study inwards Germany. (This is i argue it's then of import for traders to know international reports due out each day). If you lot bring a hold off at the Demand/Supply numbers for Mon This post volition aid you lot empathize how I translate short-term momentum from this indicator; note from this post that it is non odd to larn a short-term bounce later on a really weak momentum twenty-four hours (though, every bit you'll non from the post, the bullish border diminishes thereafter).

I remain focused on those lows from 8/12, because--as long every bit nosotros remain below them--we are sustaining a downside breakout as well as accepting value at lower cost levels. That is what nosotros run across inwards short-term downtrends. H5N1 sustained motion dorsum inwards a higher house those 8/12 lows begins to brand yesterday's downdraft hold off similar a trap for bears as well as would receive got me thinking most a short-term rally dorsum into the prior multi-day range.

All of the jeopardy themes that sold off yesterday are bouncing then far this morning: crude as well as aureate are higher, 10-year Treasury involvement rates receive got bounced, as well as the euro is upward versus the the U.S.A. dollar. In pre-opening trade, we're seeing significantly to a greater extent than book transacted at the offering cost than the bid inwards the ES futures, suggesting underlying buying interest.

I volition endure updating during the twenty-four hours via Twitter as well as the weblog to run across if nosotros tin sustain this bounce as well as to run across if those intermarket themes maintain to sustain a buying of jeopardy assets.
.

Info!! Nyse Tick: Gauging Intraday Sentiment

Here's a expect at how intraday persuasion is shaping upwards thence far this morning, every bit capture yesteryear NYSE TICK (above). Note that we've had several elevated positive TICK readings, exactly no values below -800, suggesting a lack of selling pressure. As a result, the short-term moving average of TICK (blue trace of piece of occupation above) is largely staying inward a higher house the nil level. I banknote likewise inward my Market Delta app that we're seeing to a greater extent than book at the marketplace set offering than bid inward the ES contract, likewise suggesting underlying buying interest.

You tin flame encounter that nosotros had i cluster of negative TICK readings earlier nine AM CT in addition to thence some other roughly 9:30 AM CT. As long every bit those selling episodes occur at successively higher cost levels, nosotros likewise convey to assume an underlying bullish tone to the 24-hour interval session.
.

Info!! How Good Did 1 Merchandise Today?

In the spirit of the recent transportation service on trading metrics, hither are 3 measures of trading surgery that mightiness go helpful for intraday traders:

1) Profit/loss per round-turn contract (for futures) or profit/loss per shares traded (for stocks). This tells y'all whether the coin y'all were making during the 24-hour interval was consistent amongst your degree of marketplace exposure. To brand $10,000 on 2000 contracts traded is a much improve surgery than making $15,000 on 10,000 contracts traded. Here you're bespeak yourself: did my extra activeness during the 24-hour interval interpret into enhanced performance?

2) Profit/loss per unit of measurement of marketplace movement. Here y'all await at the distance the marketplace has traveled during the 24-hour interval (say, the core of the ranges of the day's 30-minute bars) equally the denominator as well as the profit/loss equally the numerator. This tells y'all how your surgery varied equally a portion of short-term chance inwards the market. Making $10,000 inwards a narrow, attain marketplace is a improve surgery than making $15,000 inwards a volatile breakout market.

3) Number of shares or contracts traded per unit of measurement of marketplace movement. This would render an objective metric for how aggressively y'all traded, whether y'all undertraded opportunity, or overtraded a marketplace amongst pitiful opportunity.

As amongst all metrics, the sentiment is to run across how the ratios await when you're trading good as well as how they await when y'all are inwards drawdown mode. Keeping rails of the stats tin go extremely helpful inwards proactively identifying problems inwards trading earlier they toll y'all serious money.
.

Info!! Midday Briefing For August 18Th: Watching Non-Confirmations

Here's an updated Market Delta nautical chart of today's activity inward the S&P 500 Index (ES) futures. Overall, buying pressure level has exceeded selling pressure level (bottom histogram), together with nosotros convey been edifice value higher on the solar daytime at the 986.50 to 988.50 expanse (side histogram). The volume-weighted average cost (red line) has been rising, together with we've been trading inward a higher house that grade during the afternoon.

The recent tweet noted, "1:32 PM CT - TICK continues positive; fresh ES high non confirmed together with then far past times Russell, XLF, XLY, XLP."

We tin laissez passer on the sack encounter inward the latest bar that the marginal high inward ES, which was non confirmed past times many sectors, ended upwards attracting fresh selling pressure, returning us to that afternoon value area. It's a prissy example of how tracking crusade across sectors tin laissez passer on the sack illuminate moves inward the broader marketplace index. If, indeed, nosotros cannot marshal wide buying involvement close the 990 level, I'd human face a retracement dorsum to vwap.
.

Info!! Crude, Gold, Together With The Dollar: Property Degree Review

intermarket themes of growth/risk/reflation vs. recession/risk aversion/deflation.

Note how unsmooth oil (top chart) has retraced solely a fraction of its massive spend upwardly and, recently, has been struggling to rest inwards a higher house its June highs. Crude is an of import property degree inwards that it is sensitive to global ask too growth, peculiarly from emerging markets. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 topping unsmooth marketplace would convey me questioning the upside inwards stocks for that reason.

Gold (middle chart) is a chip to a greater extent than complicated inwards that it is both a commodity too a surrogate currency. Observe how it, similar crude, bottomed ahead of the March depression inwards stocks too how it too has been struggling to brand novel highs. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 potent golden marketplace is partially reflective of weakness inwards the USA dollar, which makes the inability of golden to brand novel highs lately all the to a greater extent than troubling, given recent dollar weakness. One interpretation: markets are non buying the inflation theme, making golden less attractive every bit a dollar/currency hedge.

The USA dollar (bottom chart) displayed clear draw during the slow 2008 too early on 2009 stock marketplace weakness, acting every bit a currency rubber haven. With equity markets righting themselves, we've seen the dollar movement lower versus the euro too versus emerging marketplace currencies. Recently, the dollar moved below its June lows, solely to bounce dorsum inwards the June range. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 bottoming dollar would correlate good amongst toppiness inwards commodities too both would weigh against the upside for stocks.
.

Info!! Eventide Briefing For August 18Th

* MARKET THEMES FROM TUESDAY - After Monday's pullback inward jeopardy assets, nosotros saw a bounce overnight on favorable economical tidings from Japan. That led to buying inward commodities, a pullback inward the United States of America of America dollar, too a ascent inward 10-year Treasury rates. All are themes supportive of higher stock prices, and, indeed, buying pressure level was enterprise through the hateful solar daytime on Tuesday. We moved higher upward the August twelfth lows, a grade I've been watching closely, merely nosotros every bit good saw to a greater extent than or less testify of toppiness belatedly inward the day. That volition bring me looking at markets carefully overnight too early on Midweek to meet if the quondam back upward directly serves every bit resistance. If so, nosotros tin await a examination of Monday's lows inward the almost term. If nosotros tin remain higher upward those August twelfth lows, a bounce dorsum into the thick of the prior multi-day attain would last expectable.

* OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS: 11:30 PM CT - Japan, All-Industry Index; 1:00 AM CT - Germany, PPI; 6:00 AM CT - Canada, CPI.

* EARNINGS: DE.

* WORTH READING:

-- Prospects for U.S. dollar decline;

-- Excellent overview of challenges facing residential existent estate;

-- What lifestyle create traders desire?

-- Worthwhile reading from NewsFlashr, including prospects for to a greater extent than foreclosures;

-- Defaults to rise on commercial mortgage backed securities;

-- Stock marketplace disconnected from economical realities.
.

Info!! Why Daytrading Stocks Inwards The U.S. Is An Increasingly Express Proposition

With in the eve briefing, I emphasized that States of America stocks were acting toppy inwards the afternoon. What is notable is that today, similar Monday, the anticipated weak displace started inwards Asia.

Concretely that agency that daytraders--those who are closing their positions out yesteryear the terminate of New York trading--have non participated inwards a fair flat of recent marketplace movement. This is because marketplace moves increasingly are non outset inwards the U.S.; they are reflecting global themes of increment as well as weakness, amongst much attending paid to China as well as other emerging markets.

So, for instance, I run into that, since June, the average displace during the overnight session inwards the S&P 500 Index (SPY) has been .56%; the average opened upward to unopen displace has been alone a petty larger at .72%. For 25 of the 56 sessions since the start out of June, we've seen to a greater extent than displace from yesterday's to a greater extent than or less today's opened upward than from today's opened upward to today's close.

This is non a really recent phenomenon: it has been a characteristic of 2009 trading that was non introduce inwards 2008 or 2007. With decreasing volatility, nosotros are seeing less overall marketplace movement, exactly we've besides seen a shift inwards the locus of that movement. This has made daytrading the States of America equity markets an increasingly express proposition. It has besides wrongfooted many portfolio managers who are looking to execute their ideas during States of America trading hours.

My best assessment is that this is non a temporary phenomenon. Globalization is hither to rest and, if anything, we'll run into to a greater extent than of it every bit the basis diversifies its reserve currencies. If that is the case, await for some of the best trading opportunities to come about when States of America traders are literally asleep at their wheels.
.

Info!! Forenoon Briefing For August 19Th: Renewed Weakness

Intermarket themes are to a greater extent than oftentimes than non reflecting direct chances aversion, alongside selling inwards aureate too oil, describe inwards the United States of America of America dollar, too buying of 10-year Treasury notes. To this point, however, the direct chances aversion has non brought us dorsum to Mon levels inwards those markets. That has me looking closely at those themes inwards early on trading today to help handicap the odds of sustaining a movement inwards stocks below the Mon lows.

Quick reminder: I'll last doing a free trading psychology webinar today later the marketplace close, alongside a focus on "best practices". One piffling extra I'll last providing is an update on relative volume norms, to help traders ascertain levels of institutional action inwards the stock marketplace (as good every bit expectable volatility).
.

Info!! Trusting Marketplace Grade Moves: Why Relative Book Is Important

In past posts, I request keep described a mensurate called relative volume, which looks at the electrical flow book at a given betoken inwards the twenty-four hr flow in addition to compares that to the normal, expectable book at that fourth dimension of day.

The consider is to run across whether the marketplace is unusually active or not. Significant variations inwards relative book plough over us a clue equally to whether large, institutional coin managers are active inwards the markets. If so, they may hold upward repricing assets, leading to possible trending moves. If the institutional coin is relatively absent, we're to a greater extent than probable to run across choppy in addition to gain markets dominated yesteryear marketplace makers, algorithmic programs operating to a greater extent than or less the market, in addition to prop traders.

Let's request keep this morning time equally an example. After pregnant overnight weakness, nosotros saw rigid buying involvement correct from the marketplace open, equally noted in the intraday tweets. Volume inwards the S&P 500 e-mini (ES) futures for the laid about one-half hr was nigh 268 K contracts, non quite i criterion difference higher upward the median book for the laid about xxx minutes of trade. That is really salubrious book for a morning time of really low-cal economical news.

Seeing the enterprise book coming into the marketplace inwards reply to weakness, fit higher upward the Mon lows, in addition to persistently elevator offers inwards ES tells us that coin managers were perceiving value equally nosotros moved toward 975 inwards that contract. It's when nosotros run across higher upward average book participating inwards breakouts in addition to reversals that nosotros tin sack most trust those moves, equally they request keep the back upward of participants that are marketplace movers.
.

Info!! Persistence Inward Markets: Many Trends Halt Earlier They Give-Up The Ghost Friends

I've heard from several traders who lost considerable coin early on this morning, assuming that the overnight weakness would follow through to today's solar daytime session.

That raises an of import trading question: what is the correlation betwixt the changes that nosotros encounter inward the overnight marketplace (yesterday's closed to today's open) together with inward the solar daytime marketplace (today's opened upward to today's close)?

Since the origin of 2009, that correlation has been entirely nigh .14 inward the S&P 500 Index (SPY). That agency that less than 2% of the variance inward solar daytime fourth dimension frame moves is accounted for past times movement overnight.

We tend to encounter trends from i fourth dimension catamenia to some other together with assume continuity amid markets. That supposition is worth challenging, however. Just because the marketplace is moving i way during marketplace hours inward Asia or Europe doesn't necessarily hateful that it volition deed that way i time merchandise inward the US of America is nether way.

With trading desks to a greater extent than or less the basis keeping upward alongside news, earnings, together with economical reports, markets are increasingly global together with increasingly efficient. By the fourth dimension a deed comes to our shores, it may hold upward former news.
.

Info!! Midday Briefing For August 19Th: Sustaining A Breakout

As noted inwards the before post, that is indicative of institutional participation, showing that large marketplace participants are behind the marketplace strength. As long equally nosotros rest higher upwardly that breakout signal (horizontal ruby business above), nosotros bring to hold to sentiment the marketplace equally dorsum into its prior multi-day gain (above its 8/12 lows), aborting its short-term downtrend.
.

Info!! Quick Update On The Best Practices Webinar

Just a quick reminder that I'll move doing a costless webinar on "Best Practices for Traders" later on the marketplace close. To register for the session, please larn here.

Among the topics covered volition be:

* Reading Intermarket Themes

* Reading Intraday Market Volume

* Reading Sector Themes

* Previewing/Preparing for the Market Day (including destination setting)

* Sustaining a Calm Focus inward Trading

* Reviewing the Market Day (including using functioning metrics)

I'm all the same looking into whether the session volition move archived for those non able to attend. If not, I volition all the same post summaries of the session to the blog.

Thanks equally ever for your interest. Hope to catch you lot there--

Brett